2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 657463 times)
Mike88
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« Reply #7175 on: November 04, 2020, 03:35:20 PM »
Biden's lead in Michigan is now almost 40,000.
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Diabolical Materialism
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« Reply #7176 on: November 04, 2020, 03:35:29 PM »
Everyone says that Arizona is slipping from Biden but I don't see that in any of the results yet. Where are y'all seeing that?
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #7177 on: November 04, 2020, 03:35:47 PM »
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #7178 on: November 04, 2020, 03:35:54 PM »
Quote from: 7sergi9 on November 04, 2020, 03:29:44 PM


So that tells us they think PA is gone for Trump. Feeling more confident now.

When they want 'meaningful access', what does that mean under law?
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BigSerg
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« Reply #7179 on: November 04, 2020, 03:36:00 PM »
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SLA8
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« Reply #7180 on: November 04, 2020, 03:36:04 PM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on November 04, 2020, 03:31:57 PM
Maybe a counting bias, but I'd never thought I'd see the day where NJ was to the left of NY. Boy have times changed.

Ny has only included the in person voting I believe. Mail-in ballots will be counted starting Friday.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #7181 on: November 04, 2020, 03:36:11 PM »
Is the media coming down hard on Trump declaring victory in PA?

Are they reporting it at all?
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #7182 on: November 04, 2020, 03:36:22 PM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on November 04, 2020, 03:31:57 PM
Maybe a counting bias, but I'd never thought I'd see the day where NJ was to the left of NY. Boy have times changed.

Looks like the 9/11 effect is finally over.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #7183 on: November 04, 2020, 03:36:28 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 04, 2020, 03:35:47 PM


Ah, I'm getting vicarious "Sore Loserman" flashbacks
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #7184 on: November 04, 2020, 03:36:53 PM »
It's weird that it seems the polls in Maine were basically correct in the presidential race, but way off in the Senate race.  

If the current results hold (with 88% reporting), the 538 model was off by only 1 point in their presidential projection, but by 9 points in their Senate projection.  

It's almost like the opposite of a shy Trump voter, where the Trump voters were honest but a lot of Biden/Collins voters were lying.
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Asta
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« Reply #7185 on: November 04, 2020, 03:37:10 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2020, 03:34:11 PM
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 04, 2020, 03:33:12 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2020, 03:32:37 PM

Is it doable?

I'm inclined to believe Nate.
Have you run your own numbers to support this? Not that I don't trust Nate but it'd be more convincing with a second opinion.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #7186 on: November 04, 2020, 03:37:12 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2020, 03:34:11 PM
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 04, 2020, 03:33:12 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2020, 03:32:37 PM

Is it doable?

I'm inclined to believe Nate.

Not me? Smiley
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Fargobison
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« Reply #7187 on: November 04, 2020, 03:38:27 PM »
If Trump somehow pulls ahead in AZ, he is going to lawyer up like we have never seen and drag this thing out forever.

I still think Biden takes AZ, hopefully he does for the sanity of the country.
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Badger
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« Reply #7188 on: November 04, 2020, 03:38:44 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 04, 2020, 03:35:47 PM


Right-wing mob violence. I see we have now entered Phase 2.
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HisGrace
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« Reply #7189 on: November 04, 2020, 03:38:53 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 04, 2020, 03:35:47 PM


These people are pigs who don't believe in democracy.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #7190 on: November 04, 2020, 03:39:09 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 04, 2020, 03:35:47 PM


STOP THE COUNTING. END DEMOCRACY. TRUMP FOREVER.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #7191 on: November 04, 2020, 03:39:17 PM »
Quote from: The Trump Virus on November 04, 2020, 03:36:11 PM
Is the media coming down hard on Trump declaring victory in PA?

Are they reporting it at all?

Not a word about it on CNN
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7192 on: November 04, 2020, 03:39:37 PM »
Quote from: Mike88 on November 04, 2020, 03:35:20 PM
Biden's lead in Michigan is now almost 40,000.

as Wayne county waits till 2021 to report that last 20%
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #7193 on: November 04, 2020, 03:39:55 PM »
still 374k lead for Trump out of Pennsylvania
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #7194 on: November 04, 2020, 03:40:03 PM »
Quote from: Asta on November 04, 2020, 03:37:10 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2020, 03:34:11 PM
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 04, 2020, 03:33:12 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2020, 03:32:37 PM

Is it doable?

I'm inclined to believe Nate.
Have you run your own numbers to support this? Not that I don't trust Nate but it'd be more convincing with a second opinion.

Based on what's out, *IF* Biden wins those counties as strongly as Nate projects (and on that have to defer to him), then Biden would win narrowly.  But (1) as Nate noted, there could be reporting errors (which could go either way, of course), and (2) there are some high bars in there, e.g. 93-7 in DeKalb.  Not unrealistic, but with little room for error.

So my opinion is a solid maybe. Wink
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HisGrace
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« Reply #7195 on: November 04, 2020, 03:40:08 PM »
Quote from: 7sergi9 on November 04, 2020, 03:36:00 PM


Fox has been surprisingly responsible at handling the count so far so we'll see if it continues.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #7196 on: November 04, 2020, 03:40:17 PM »
(NYT) Fox News isn't coming off their AZ call:

Quote
On Fox News, Chris Wallace tells viewers the WI pickup is key for Biden: “It’s real simple math now. Six votes in NV, 16 votes in MI, and he reaches precisely the magic number.” (Fox has called AZ for Biden.)
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Holmes
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« Reply #7197 on: November 04, 2020, 03:40:19 PM »
Imagine if Trump did succeed in stealing Pennsylvania and still loses the election. lmao dumbass
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RandomInternetUser
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« Reply #7198 on: November 04, 2020, 03:40:21 PM »
Quote from: ByeDon/Harris on November 04, 2020, 03:39:09 PM
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 04, 2020, 03:35:47 PM


STOP THE COUNTING. END DEMOCRACY. TRUMP FOREVER.

We live in a Republic, not a democracy.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
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« Reply #7199 on: November 04, 2020, 03:40:40 PM »
Quote from: Crumpets on November 04, 2020, 03:25:46 PM
Quote from: CrimsonCommander688 on November 04, 2020, 03:19:39 PM
Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

1) New cabinet

2) Undoing Trump's executive orders

3) No more Trump-appointed judges. Sure he'll still have to go through McConnell, but at least we can stop the bleeding.

4) No more spur-of-the-moment major military decisions or presidential decrees by tweet

5) We can at least start to rebuild our reputation abroad

That's a lot!
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