2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Bootes Void]

I have to wonder about the appearance of Biden momentum in Florida. Was it fake? Or was Biden on track to lose Florida by even more, and narrowed it at the last minute?

I think after 2018, Florida was going to be a heavy lift. Also, for most of 2019, there were alot of far left stuff being thrown around in the primary which may have hurt them along with some swing voters especially in miami-dade. I also wonder how much did BLM and the defund the police rhetoric make florida latinos more republican

[charcuterie]

Scott Walker says a recount isn't necessary.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/scott-walker-suggests-biden-s-wisconsin-lead-too-big-for-recount/ar-BB1aGYLa?ocid=Peregrine

I dislike Scott Walker strongly but I can't deny he knows Wisconsin (especially considering he almost survived a Trump midterm there). Let Trump have his recount though, it won't change the results at this point.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1324046952682704896?s=21

So Arizona is going to be the only state that swings right late on?

Doubt

[BigSerg]

Fake?
https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1324045286537273346?s=19

[TopShelfGoal]

Scott Walker says a recount isn't necessary.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/scott-walker-suggests-biden-s-wisconsin-lead-too-big-for-recount/ar-BB1aGYLa?ocid=Peregrine

Incoming "Droopy Scott" tweet in 3... 2... 1.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Any chance Biden can pull Ossoff over 50? I'm guessing no?

No. It might be possible for Ossoff to get a plurality, though.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1324046952682704896?s=21

Aren't a ton of these mail ballots?

Also this keeps changing. First there was like ~280K ballots left in AZ and now its 500k?!

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why has there been so little coverage of what’s going on in Maine? There’s only 75% reporting and I have no idea where the outstanding ballots are or what kind of ballots the are.

[Platypus]

The more I look, the more I see Maine senate as still up for grabs, but Collins is favoured if she stays over 48%.

If the remaining 25% of votes break a very possible, and perhaps slightly conservative estimate here, 60% for Gideon, two-candidate preferred:

1,051,376 votes total (if there's exactly 25% outstanding)
262,844 votes remaining

Gideon to gain 60% two candidate preferred means +157,706.4
Collins to gain 40% two candidate preferred means +105,137.6

Gideon net gain = 52,569

Current gap based on first preferences only = 40,825

And that's before factoring in the votes for the other two candidates - Linn's 1.7% probably breaks towards Collins pretty strongly, but Savage's 5% probably breaks towards Gideon strongly.

Long story short from someone who is very used to looking at preferential voting - Maine Senate is still very much up for grabs.

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1324046952682704896?s=21

Two pages back I was mocked for saying this.... id much rather have egg on my face and be wrong. But alas that doesn’t seem to happen

[OBD]

Err, are we 100% sure about Arizona here? Biden's lead has been shrinking for a while now.

[Bootes Void]

Fake?
https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1324045286537273346?s=19

very difficult to make up a 100k deficit, especially when its mostly VBM now

[American2020]

[Stockdale for Veep]

Scott Walker says a recount isn't necessary.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/scott-walker-suggests-biden-s-wisconsin-lead-too-big-for-recount/ar-BB1aGYLa?ocid=Peregrine

Sharkeyes should know: anything above 0.5 doesn't require a recount, and likely would not change the final margin dramatically.

[ProudModerate2]

Biden now up nearly 50K in Michigan, nearly 1%.
Peters only down 7k now.

where are you getting this? its not updated on nytimes

NYT does show an approximate 50K lead by Biden.

[wbrocks67]

It's also interesting that Maine polls were about correct on average. But was the Collins move a late one? A ticket splitting on a check for Biden? It's incredible to me that Biden would have a +10 lead and people would still want Collins in the Senate after everything she's done

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Other than Trump, John James and Tim Scott are the two Republicans that piss me off the most. I really hope he loses so that it doesn't encourage that.

I think every Republican in the Congress is terrible, but you *really* have to not be paying attention if you think Tim Scott is even in the top half of the worst elected Republicans.

[lfromnj]

The more I look, the more I see Maine senate as still up for grabs, but Collins is favoured if she stays over 48%.

If the remaining 25% of votes break a very possible, and perhaps slightly conservative estimate here, 60% for Gideon, two-candidate preferred:

1,051,376 votes total (if there's exactly 25% outstanding)
262,844 votes remaining

Gideon to gain 60% two candidate preferred means +157,706.4
Collins to gain 40% two candidate preferred means +105,137.6

Gideon net gain = 52,569

Current gap based on first preferences only = 40,825

And that's before factoring in the votes for the other two candidates - Linn's 1.7% probably breaks towards Collins pretty strongly, but Savage's 5% probably breaks towards Gideon strongly.

Long story short from someone who is very used to looking at preferential voting - Maine Senate is still very much up for grabs.

Reminder that I don't know how late votes in Maine will break but it seems Biden's margin will go down, All of Cumberland is in which is the most D county by a huge margin.

[MillennialModerate]

The more I look, the more I see Maine senate as still up for grabs, but Collins is favoured if she stays over 48%.

If the remaining 25% of votes break a very possible, and perhaps slightly conservative estimate here, 60% for Gideon, two-candidate preferred:

1,051,376 votes total (if there's exactly 25% outstanding)
262,844 votes remaining

Gideon to gain 60% two candidate preferred means +157,706.4
Collins to gain 40% two candidate preferred means +105,137.6

Gideon net gain = 52,569

Current gap based on first preferences only = 40,825

And that's before factoring in the votes for the other two candidates - Linn's 1.7% probably breaks towards Collins pretty strongly, but Savage's 5% probably breaks towards Gideon strongly.

Long story short from someone who is very used to looking at preferential voting - Maine Senate is still very much up for grabs.

Your numbers as to how those ballots favor Gideon are extreme. In fact they might even favor Collins. But def not Gideon 60%

[wbrocks67]

Err, are we 100% sure about Arizona here? Biden's lead has been shrinking for a while now.

Wasn't that bc E-day vote was coming in?

[politics_king]

Any chance Biden can pull Ossoff over 50? I'm guessing no?

That would be great and I'm optimistic about North Carolina since the votes are coming from Tobacco road in Raleigh/Durham. If Peters wins too then that puts the Senate at 50-49 with a Special Election in January. Big deal for the Democrats and get their organizing together. Also it's good the Loeffler will be the GOP candidate, that'll for sure make Georgia Democrats turnout after her whole thing with the Atlanta Dream.

[politics_king]

https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1324045286537273346?s=19

Not going to happen. Arizona & Nevada will go for Biden. Although it'll be close.

[lfromnj]

So anyway looks like Kenosha county WI swung 2 points to the right,

Kenosha BUMP?

lol.

[MillennialModerate]

Any chance Biden can pull Ossoff over 50? I'm guessing no?

That would be great and I'm optimistic about North Carolina since the votes are coming from Tobacco road in Raleigh/Durham. If Peters wins too then that puts the Senate at 50-49 with a Special Election in January. Big deal for the Democrats and get their organizing together. Also it's good the Loeffler will be the GOP candidate, that'll for sure make Georgia Democrats turnout after her whole thing with the Atlanta Dream.

You can’t be optimistic about NC. Even if Biden pulled a miraculous win which is improbable - Cunningham is dragging behind Biden by a lot

[OBD]

Err, are we 100% sure about Arizona here? Biden's lead has been shrinking for a while now.

Wasn't that bc E-day vote was coming in?

Hopefully. But if the remaining ballots are E-day as well we're in trouble.