2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Inmate Trump]

How is everyone feeling about Biden's chances right now?

And about Trump's chances?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?

Biden proves increasingly unpopular over his term his office, and the results from last night prove that the GOP has a path forward with Latino (and to a lesser extent) Black voters

Just so you know, Cubans ≠ Latinos

Trump's swings in heavily Mexican-American regions of the Rio Grande Valley were even bigger than his gains among Cubans in Florida, mate.

What we're seeing is racial depolarization.  Democrats cannot simultaneously be the party of high-earning, White suburbanites and working class Latinos/Blacks.  Civil Rights-era racial attitudes are being phased out as Silents/Boomers age out of the electorate.     

Curious to see precinct results in places like Southeast LA County. I want to know if this applies to urban Latinos or is just a rural/Tejano thing.

Its racial depolarization but with caveats. There is still fluidity in the vote and CA urban centers didnt appear to move very much.

Los Angeles County appears to have swung toward Trump.

What?
Urban minorities swung right?
Which poster could have possibly predicted such a shift?

Okay, you expected a Trump win. If that somehow happens, you can have some accolades but right now you're just as off as the 413 map.

We're a lot closer to a Trump win than a 413 blue wave election, lol

Perhaps in electoral votes but not in relevant impact. But I don't think a 300 vote Biden win is meaningfully closer to the 250 vote world Forumlurker was living in than a Biden landslide. This is just a medium Biden win--and shouldn't really come as a surprise to anybody. Although internal data (Florida!) within it certainly should.

[It’s so Joever]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?

Biden proves increasingly unpopular over his term his office, and the results from last night prove that the GOP has a path forward with Latino (and to a lesser extent) Black voters

Just so you know, Cubans ≠ Latinos

Trump's swings in heavily Mexican-American regions of the Rio Grande Valley were even bigger than his gains among Cubans in Florida, mate.

What we're seeing is racial depolarization.  Democrats cannot simultaneously be the party of high-earning, White suburbanites and working class Latinos/Blacks.  Civil Rights-era racial attitudes are being phased out as Silents/Boomers age out of the electorate.     

Curious to see precinct results in places like Southeast LA County. I want to know if this applies to urban Latinos or is just a rural/Tejano thing.

Its racial depolarization but with caveats. There is still fluidity in the vote and CA urban centers didnt appear to move very much.

Los Angeles County appears to have swung toward Trump.

What?
Urban minorities swung right?
Which poster could have possibly predicted such a shift?

Okay, you expected a Trump win. If that somehow happens, you can have some accolades but right now you're just as off as the 413 map.

Not only that, he very specifically said it would be through MI even though Biden flips WI and PA but nothing else. Looks like a 0% chance that happens.

It’s actually unbelievable how smug and audacious he’s continuing to be after proving to be so horribly wrong about something he was SO confident of for SO long. Guess the concept of “shame” is foreign to him.

A poster who is smug about something and now is refusing to accept they were wrong?

Where have I seen this story before?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Illinois progressive tax amendment failed thankfully, and with Biden likely winning, I can’t imagine the 2022 electorate will be much more receptive to it.

Definitely shows there’s either significant mistrust of the state government or significant skepticism of big government policy among a portion of Illinois Dems. With a razor-thin margin in Champaign, it’s possible that it could lose in every county but Cook, and it got a laughable 62% in Cook, one of the most heavily Democratic counties in the country.

[Person Man]

How is everyone feeling about Biden's chances right now?

And about Trump's chances?

If he can’t make up the margin in Nevada, he’s gone.

[lfromnj]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?

Biden proves increasingly unpopular over his term his office, and the results from last night prove that the GOP has a path forward with Latino (and to a lesser extent) Black voters

Just so you know, Cubans ≠ Latinos

Trump's swings in heavily Mexican-American regions of the Rio Grande Valley were even bigger than his gains among Cubans in Florida, mate.

What we're seeing is racial depolarization.  Democrats cannot simultaneously be the party of high-earning, White suburbanites and working class Latinos/Blacks.  Civil Rights-era racial attitudes are being phased out as Silents/Boomers age out of the electorate.     

Curious to see precinct results in places like Southeast LA County. I want to know if this applies to urban Latinos or is just a rural/Tejano thing.

Its racial depolarization but with caveats. There is still fluidity in the vote and CA urban centers didnt appear to move very much.

Los Angeles County appears to have swung toward Trump.

You can't really conclude that without knowing which votes are outstanding.

The CA numbers are going to get more Dem. Also, the numbers in Riverside and SB are fairly telling, as far as Latinos go.

Theres a reverse counting bias this year atleast early on.

[Agonized-Statism]

How is everyone feeling about Biden's chances right now?

And about Trump's chances?

I'm gonna guess a 270 EV Biden win followed by recounts, legal drama, maybe even congressional drama if there's a faithless elector.

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1324025795312906243?s=21

Anemic.

I thought Biden was +17 in WI?  lol

But Trump still lost it. But since it's narrow I guess you are settling for a participation trophy.

I can be happy with my candidate's relative overperformance and how the polls/punditry were (once again) very, very wrong.  

Red avatars trying to spin narrow wins in MI/WI is a bad look when the Atlas consensus was these states would be ~8pt wins for Biden.  

The goal posts keep moving, and the desperation is real.  Enjoy Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell for the next 6 years (at least!)

[Lemmiwinks]

I'll give credit where credit is due. The doomers were, by and large, right. Predicting a narrow Trump win is in fact closer to the actual result than the 413 map (which was what my prediction was in the ballpark of).

That still doesn't magically make the lion's share of their contributions to this forum worthwhile or not insufferable to read.

[emailking]

So...me saying Trump would win 275 electoral votes is somehow more off than the people saying he would only win 125?

I’m sorry....but that isn’t looking very likely.

I agree you weren't more wrong than a 413 map but it's looking like you'll end up being wrong about the final result. We don't know for sure yet, but that's how it's looking right now.

[Inmate Trump]

I'll give credit where credit is due. The doomers were, by and large, right. Predicting a narrow Trump win is in fact closer to the actual result than the 413 map (which was what my prediction was in the ballpark of).

That still doesn't magically make the lion's share of their contributions to this forum worthwhile or not insufferable to read.

I think a lot of the "insufferableness" of doomer's contributions was due to having their opinions and warnings continually shot down and dismissed as bogus.  The back and forth that often ensued made the conversations difficult to read.

[RI]

While it probably won't hold, the GOP is currently leading in 218 House seats.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1324025795312906243?s=21

Anemic.

I thought Biden was +17 in WI?  lol

But Trump still lost it. But since it's narrow I guess you are settling for a participation trophy.

I can be happy with my candidate's overperformance, lol. 

Red avatars trying to spin narrow wins in MI/WI is a bad look when the Atlas consensus was these states would be ~8pt wins for Biden. 

The goal posts keep moving, and the desperation is real.  Enjoy Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell for the next 6 years (at least!)

A win is a win. Or in your case a loss is a loss. Trump is God to you people so him losing is not going to be easy for you to get over.

[Inmate Trump]

How is everyone feeling about Biden's chances right now?

And about Trump's chances?

I'm gonna guess a 270 EV Biden win followed by recounts, legal drama, maybe even congressional drama if there's a faithless elector.

So we're not on track to win PA and/or GA?

[Lemmiwinks]

Illinois progressive tax amendment failed thankfully, and with Biden likely winning, I can’t imagine the 2022 electorate will be much more receptive to it.

Definitely shows there’s either significant mistrust of the state government or significant skepticism of big government policy among a portion of Illinois Dems. With a razor-thin margin in Champaign, it’s possible that it could lose in every county but Cook, and it got a laughable 62% in Cook, one of the most heavily Democratic counties in the country.

The messaging on the "No" campaign was quite good. I think voters from both parties in the state could agree that Illinois needs to manage its budget better, and I'm sure that was enough to peel off a significant chunk of Dems.

[Person Man]

While it probably won't hold, the GOP is currently leading in 218 House seats.

Losing the house would be the death of the Democratic Party.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

How is everyone feeling about Biden's chances right now?

And about Trump's chances?

I'm gonna guess a 270 EV Biden win followed by recounts, legal drama, maybe even congressional drama if there's a faithless elector.

So we're not on track to win PA and/or GA?

We probably are.

[Alcibiades]

What the hell happened in Antrim County, MI?! Went from +30 Trump in 2016 to +26 Biden this time with almost all votes counted. Insane swing.

[RI]

What the hell happened in Antrim County, MI?! Went from +30 Trump in 2016 to +26 Biden this time with almost all votes counted. Insane swing.

It's an error.

[MillennialModerate]

While it probably won't hold, the GOP is currently leading in 218 House seats.

Uhhh

[OBD]

We're about to see a contested election. Buckle up, everyone.

[Platypus]

Hard to see how Biden isn't the winner on the first count of votes. Court cases and recounts could yet find a way for Trump to win, but I think the real question is whether Biden squeaks across the line or gets a comfortable-ish win.

[Calthrina950]

While it probably won't hold, the GOP is currently leading in 218 House seats.

Uhhh

You were wrong about Kennedy, but I'll give you credit for Georgia, as it's looking like Trump might narrowly hold the state. It's clearly a swing state now, however, and Democrats could sweep the Senate runoffs.

[lfromnj]

By the way Minnesota ds didn't even flip the state senate

[Badger]

Young affluent liberals from swing states need to stop moving in droves to liberal strongholds like NY and CA.

After last night, I'm very tempted to move back to New Jersey.

I’m going to California or Oregon.

You guys realize that this will only assist Republicans by further concentrating the vote sink in these safe d States? I mean, I'm not anticipating you guys will actually follow through on these promises, but if we're going to inks post, I figure I'd point that out.

Besides, you don't need a whole liberal State. There are plenty of liberal enclaves in almost every state