2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[emailking]

Trump has barely talked about the wall in the last 2 years. I wonder if that partially explains the swing amongst Hispanics.

[BudgieForce]

Young affluent liberals from swing states need to stop moving in droves to liberal strongholds like NY and CA.

After last night, I'm very tempted to move back to New Jersey.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

No idea if this holds, but Republicans have improved by 10 points in Illinois’s heavily black Second Congressional District and 9 points in the Third. If these hold, it would probably push IL-3 (D+6) onto the board for 2022 assuming it doesn’t get messed with in redistricting, but I have no idea what the outstanding vote looks like. Other Illinois congressional districts look to have voted similar to 2018 (IL-4 is at D+66 while Hillary won it by 69) so far for what it’s worth.

[Bojack Horseman]

Young affluent liberals from swing states need to stop moving in droves to liberal strongholds like NY and CA.

After last night, I'm very tempted to move back to New Jersey.

I’m going to California or Oregon.

[Ferguson97]

I don't think Biden has MI/PA/WI locked up yet, but I doubt an organization like AP or Fox would prematurely call Arizona. I think Biden's won that at least.

[xavier110]

Young affluent liberals from swing states need to stop moving in droves to liberal strongholds like NY and CA.

Keep moving to Phoenix, Atlanta and Austin!!

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Young affluent liberals from swing states need to stop moving in droves to liberal strongholds like NY and CA.

I think part of the story of "realignment" is polarization between the coasts and ultra urban areas/megacities (think metro-Chicago, metro-ATL, SF Bay) and every other part of the country increasing even further than thought possible. Basically it bodes really poorly for left-of-center politics nationally.

[Del Tachi]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?

Biden proves increasingly unpopular over his term his office, and the results from last night prove that the GOP has a path forward with Latino (and to a lesser extent) Black voters

Just so you know, Cubans ≠ Latinos

Trump's swings in heavily Mexican-American regions of the Rio Grande Valley were even bigger than his gains among Cubans in Florida, mate.

What we're seeing is racial depolarization.  Democrats cannot simultaneously be the party of high-earning, White suburbanites and working class Latinos/Blacks.  Civil Rights-era racial attitudes are being phased out as Silents/Boomers age out of the electorate.     

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Luria won!

(Frankly, I thought she'd have a harder time than Spanberger.)

[VBM]

I don't think Biden has MI/PA/WI locked up yet, but I doubt an organization like AP or Fox would prematurely call Arizona. I think Biden's won that at least.

Isn’t it pretty much impossible for Trump to take back WI and MI since the remaining votes are absentee?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?

Biden proves increasingly unpopular over his term his office, and the results from last night prove that the GOP has a path forward with Latino (and to a lesser extent) Black voters

Just so you know, Cubans ≠ Latinos

Trump's swings in heavily Mexican-American regions of the Rio Grande Valley were even bigger than his gains among Cubans in Florida, mate.

What we're seeing is racial depolarization.  Democrats cannot simultaneously be the party of high-earning, White suburbanites and working class Latinos/Blacks.  Civil Rights-era racial attitudes are being phased out as Silents/Boomers age out of the electorate.     

Curious to see precinct results in places like Southeast LA County. I want to know if this applies to urban Latinos or is just a rural/Tejano thing.

[BigSerg]

Mmm...
https://twitter.com/TimMurtaugh/status/1324013618418110470?s=19

[Del Tachi]

Trump keeping it this close in MI and WI makes me feel good about his chances of holding PA

270-268 map here we come!

[Hassan 2022]

Young affluent liberals from swing states need to stop moving in droves to liberal strongholds like NY and CA.

After last night, I'm very tempted to move back to New Jersey.

I’m going to California or Oregon.

After graduating from college I hope to move to Minnesota.

[forza nocta]

Anything new in Georgia?

[Rand]

D E T R O I T
J O E

[The Free North]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?

Biden proves increasingly unpopular over his term his office, and the results from last night prove that the GOP has a path forward with Latino (and to a lesser extent) Black voters

Just so you know, Cubans ≠ Latinos

Trump's swings in heavily Mexican-American regions of the Rio Grande Valley were even bigger than his gains among Cubans in Florida, mate.

What we're seeing is racial depolarization.  Democrats cannot simultaneously be the party of high-earning, White suburbanites and working class Latinos/Blacks.  Civil Rights-era racial attitudes are being phased out as Silents/Boomers age out of the electorate.     

Curious to see precinct results in places like Southeast LA County. I want to know if this applies to urban Latinos or is just a rural/Tejano thing.

Its racial depolarization but with caveats. There is still fluidity in the vote and CA urban centers didnt appear to move very much.

[Agonized-Statism]

Latinos identity as white, it shouldn't be that shocking they're open to voting a candidate of white identity politics.

You've never met a latino, have you? We're an ethnicity. Generally, we're mestizo, neither fully white nor fully native and between the two in the caste system. Some white Spaniards will identify as latino (see Cubans), but that's a gray area.

As a latino myself, my family and most other latinos I have met identify as white.

Because you have to check one or the other when it comes to race, since hispanic is counted as an ethnicity only. I could "pass" for the longest time myself until I got hit with discrimination. If it comes up, I'm not Tejano, btw, my relatives came over during the Mexican Revolution. I'm an ex-Californian.

I agree that it's a complicated identity, but no, a majority of hispanics still identify as a distinct group: https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2015/06/11/chapter-7-the-many-dimensions-of-hispanic-racial-identity/

[Hnv1]

What's left to count in WI? is 22K lead enough?

[It’s so Joever]

Do you think maybe this broke along religious lines as well in terms of trends?
I noticed that the more secular parts of the country seemed to have the largest swings to Biden (with the exception of suburbia lol)

[It’s so Joever]

What's left to count in WI? is 22K lead enough?

It’s Eau Claire, Portage, and La Crosse.
Probably enough.

[Omega21]

D E T R O I T
J O E

Detroit Joe*

*Black Male voters flocking over to Trump

If he pulls a victory, it will be an anaemic one.

[Roblox]

What's left to count in WI? is 22K lead enough?

I saw Scott Walker himself tweeting that 20k would be extremely difficult to overcome.

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden lead in MI up to 32k.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Fwi both Fox and AP don’t use the Edison people who botched Arizona so they called Arizona with accurate data