2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[n1240]

Chester PA recent mail dump

Biden 24570 (80.8%)
Trump 5447 (17.9%)

50k mail-in outstanding in the county.

if all of these dumps are as pro-Biden as this, things are looking good.

Biden vote sinks are looking very good compared to 2016. Montgomery county has about the same number of votes for Biden that Clinton had, and Trump same number of votes that he had in 2016, but 70k mail-in still outstanding in the county, so he's clearly on pace to blow out his margin there.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/nick_field90/status/1323997319176638466

[The Free North]

I think Trump might squeak by in Georgia. Doesn't really matter but it will make the map look cleaner.

Still, the fact that Florida is going to vote like 2-3% to the right of GA is eye opening.

[Hassan 2022]

Is the AP and NYT factoring in RCV in their vote totals for the ME Senate race or does that happen later?

[MaxQue]

Is the AP and NYT factoring in RCV in their vote totals for the ME Senate race or does that happen later?

That's happening much later (late novembrer -early december).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Guys, the polling miss is an incredibly dark omen. We all have our issues with political science, but nobody should want punditry to become even more immune to data. I now expect the insufferable Cillizza to visit diners at ten times his usual rate because he can safely ignore any polls that defy his reasoning.

[Horsemask]

Is the AP and NYT factoring in RCV in their vote totals for the ME Senate race or does that happen later?

Won't matter if Collins gets 50%. Right now, I think she's likely to hit that.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Is Susan Collins a lock to win re-election? Just woke up recently

88% of Portland is in, so I'd say she's going to survive.

[ultraviolet]

Is Perdue gonna stay above 50?

[Suburbia]

Also, Democrats need to back off the police. They are humans just like everyone else. They are not to blame for every black person's problem. Hold them accountable, threatening them is not working. A lot of cops voted Trump overwhelmingly.

[/b]

As a black person, I actually find your post to be offensive and untrue. Call me an SJW, but you'll never know what it's like to be black. Just. Stop. Biden is winning, so clearly this "SJW nonsense" must be working.

I agree with this sentiment.  Too many white people are quick with this kind of senseless retort.  I'm white, and I'm gay.  Straight people will never know what it's like to be in my shoes, and that shows all too often.

I see you, I hear you. But what do you want straight and white people to do? It's not registering in terms of votes or policy implementation in some states?

[Bootes Void]

I actually think Biden will narrowly win Georgia while Purdue goes to a runoff

[Horus]

Guys, the polling miss is an incredibly dark omen. We all have our issues with political science, but nobody should want punditry to become even more immune to data. I now expect the insufferable Cillizza to visit diners at ten times his usual rate because he can safely ignore any polls that defy his reasoning.

I think data needs to incorporate more diners. Or perhaps average poll results with a Frank Luntz focus group to get something more post-postmodern.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is Perdue gonna stay above 50?

Possible, but likely not.

[Hope For A New Era]

Just woke up, are we still heading toward 306-232?

[Suburbia]

Guys, the polling miss is an incredibly dark omen. We all have our issues with political science, but nobody should want punditry to become even more immune to data. I now expect the insufferable Cillizza to visit diners at ten times his usual rate because he can safely ignore any polls that defy his reasoning.

Polling industry is dead

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, NYT still hasn't called AZ for Biden, though it's now >98% in and he's up 51.0-47.6%. No way Trump makes this up.

[BlueSwan]

Guys, the polling miss is an incredibly dark omen. We all have our issues with political science, but nobody should want punditry to become even more immune to data. I now expect the insufferable Cillizza to visit diners at ten times his usual rate because he can safely ignore any polls that defy his reasoning.

Yes, I strongly agree. I was really hoping for the polls to be right, not just because they predicted a Biden win, but to avoid this. Future elections will be even more dominated by stupid hot takes and we'll likely get much less quality polling because fewer outlets will be willing to pay for polling.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

What does this even mean?

He has the machismo thing going for him. I will get a lot of sh*t for saying this, but Biden ran a very feminine campaign, advocating mask wearing, not even doing GOTV, etc. It doesn't play in working class minority neighborhoods. Can you think of a less feminine music genre than rap?

I don't think Biden running a "feminine" campaign has got anything much to do with it, but I totally agree with you about Trump's macho appeal. This factor should not be underestimated. There really isn't much rational thought behind voting for Trump for the VAST majority of Trump voters, I believe. Sure, they can provide rationalizations, but I don't think a single of those rationalizations are the true reason why they vote for him.

This is also why the educated elite have never been able to understand why people would vote for Trump since the educated elite typically finds ultra macho behaviour primitive and off-putting. Trumps behaviour is a feature, not a bug. This is also why it is far from certain that a DeSantis or Cotton or whoever would be able to carry the torch for Trumpism going forward.

Cut it out. Saying that Latinos/Black are stupid and vote because muh "primitive macho behaviour"... while "educated" whites voting rationally. WTF are saying, man? It is so f**king racist.

Except that is not what I am saying at all. Infact I don't even mention race in that post. Trumps macho behaviour first and foremost appeals to less educated men, this is known fact. Also, this is first and foremost WHITE men, but obviously not exclusively white men.

Known fact? Oook.

Not about race? Ok. So it isn't Black/Latinos don't know better than macho thing. Instead it's low-educated men don't know better than macho thing. Very progressive.

Anyway: "There really isn't much rational thought behind voting for Trump for the VAST majority of Trump voters" is a truly elitist attitude. Even worse Romneys 47%. Perhaps, literally, why Black/Latino/Low-Educated swung Trumpy.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Yeah, it just doesn't seem to add up.

Well going by your analysis for the last 2 months.. a lot of aspects about this election aren't going to add up for you. lmao.

[Zanas]

So Biden is extending his lead in MI while James is exetending his. Ticket splitters were a real thing this election, not necessarily by sheer numbers, but decisive.

[Crumpets]

When I just pulled up the NYT county swing map, this is the first image that came into my head:

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/nick_field90/status/1323997319176638466

I wouldn't give this much weight, but I like that Casey is doing this to provide a counter to Trumps lies about the election.

[Dr. Frankenstein]

What is up in the Senate race in MI?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just woke up, are we still heading toward 306-232?

306-232 or 290-248.

[wbrocks67]

Ugh, NYT still hasn't called AZ for Biden, though it's now >98% in and he's up 51.0-47.6%. No way Trump makes this up.

Don't they go off of AP calls? wonder why they haven't yet.