2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Roronoa D. Law]

Trump is at 67% in Forsyth County, Georgia. Kemp got 70% there.

68% in Cherokee county. Kemp got 72%.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323868433059057666?s=20

Collins under 50%...could get interesting with RCV involved.

[gf20202]

Does a Biden Presidency and a GOP Senate mean no stimulus checks?

Yeah. Mitch is not going to do any big bills for President Biden.

The run-off in Georgia could be huge

The top two Republican candidates combined for over 50%.

The counting isn't done yet, genius.

And they aren't even over 50% NOW. They are under 49%

[Zanas]

I don't know if DDHQ know something the others don't, but Gideon has greatly improved there and is within reasonable striking distance of Collins with RCV

[justfollowingtheelections]

I haven't been here in years.  What are the chances that the Democrats win 53/53 House seats in California?

[Rep Jessica]

https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1323863589913010176?s=20

With republicans not being honest or picking up the phone it is killing the polls.

[Hassan 2022]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323868433059057666?s=20

Collins under 50%...could get interesting with RCV involved.

MANIFESTING A GIDEON WIN.

[Non Swing Voter]

The CNN map had Biden at 290 (AZ, MI, PA, WI, NE-2) and I kinda feel like this is the most likely end result at this point.

Biden just lost all the "tossup" states but those states were all essentially right leaning states.  The electoral college is heavily skewed towards the GOP.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Seems premature to assume Ds won't get the Senate. We just don't know.

[Pulaski]

Biden creeping up In Wisconsin and he may pull it off

Ew, gross.

[Alcibiades]

MN potentially voting substantially to the left of MI, WI and PA is surprising.

[forsythvoter]

Yeah, the margins coming out of metro ATL are pretty bad for Trump. We'll see if it's enough

Trump is at 67% in Forsyth County, Georgia. Kemp got 70% there.

68% in Cherokee county. Kemp got 72%.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Biden up 14K in Washoe per Ralston.

[DrScholl]

I haven't been here in years.  What are the chances that the Democrats win 53/53 House seats in California?

Very slim. LaMalfa and McCarthy will definitely hold on.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323868433059057666?s=20

Collins under 50%...could get interesting with RCV involved.

MANIFESTING A GIDEON WIN.

GIDEON IS A POPULIST HERO

If we say it 1000 times here, she will surely win  

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Btw, are there a lot of absentees for New York? Trump winning Erie county seems unlikely...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I haven't been here in years.  What are the chances that the Democrats win 53/53 House seats in California?

Remote. But Ds might be very well positioned to make further gains of multiple seats vis a vis 2018.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323869244707250176?s=20

[Scottholes 2.0]

So how are we currently feeling about:

MI?

WI?

PA?

MI: At this point Trump has surpassed or nearly surpassed his total 2016 votes in a few traditionally Republican counties (eg. Ottawa) and also in Flint. His margin in key counties like Macomb is substantial but he's farther from hitting his 2016 vote totals. Typically the Democratic votes in Detroit come late in Michigan even without mail ins, but on the other hand Michigan Republicans have a strong mail in vote operation and I doubt they'll be getting blown out like they will be in Pennsylvania. One bright spot for Biden is that he won back Leelaunau and has 1,000 more voters than Hillary did with 90% reporting. Probably the hardest state to call right now but it has the most for Biden to be happy about outside of the suburbs. Tilt Biden I guess?

WI: Everything I'm seeing suggests Trump will win. He's improving his vote totals in key southwestern counties that Biden was supposed to have won back and the Wisconsin suburbs are famously inflexible to the usual trends. In Lafayette Trump has pulled 1000 brand new voters straight out of his ass when they were supposed to be defecting in droves to Biden. The only silver lining for Biden is that he's somehow doing even better in Madison, but Madison alone ain't gonna cut it. Unless Biden pulls out crazy numbers from Milwaukee or its surrounding suburbs or unless it turns out the maps are lying and actually there are thousands of mail ins for those key southwestern states and turnout is almost double 2016 somehow I don't see a path for Biden and frankly I want to be proven wrong. Likely Trump.

PA: There are similarly bad signs for Biden in Trump's total votes in counties like Erie, but at least Biden can rest safe knowing hundreds of thousands of votes will arrive near the end of the count in his favour and his margins/turnout in the Philly suburbs will probably be substantial. The Allegheny turnout and margin will matter a ton here and I think will be decisive: if Trump does significantly worse here than his 2016 margin on the back of the suburbs (40%) then Biden has the edge but if Trump even manages to stem the bleeding to at least 35%ish then he'll be in a good position to win.

You really see this as likely Trump?  Seems like Trump isn't improving enough to offset Dane/Milwaukee.  

I guess I feel more optimistic about WI. Biden received 45k more voted than HRC in Dane. This is not counting the absentee votes. Considering Dane led the state in early votes, doesn't this look pretty good for Biden? Who knows how many more Democratic votes are left in Dane!

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1323868530106793986

And with that, I'm signing off for the night.

[soundchaser]

Biden up 14K in Washoe per Ralston.

Looks good for NV. What in the finks happened with Latinos elsewhere?

[gerritcole]

At this point, given how this night has shaped up, I almost don't want Biden to win anymore.  Not like this, clawing and scraping for every last electoral vote to get him to 270.   

What type of defeatist nonsense is this?

[South Dakota Democrat]

I don't see how Biden can be very confident about winning Wisconsin. What is Biden's path in WI now that Madison (Dane County) is mostly in?

Milwaukee

[BudgieForce]

Biden could end up being very popular. And Americans seem to love divided government for some reason....

[RI]

Biden up 14K in Washoe per Ralston.

Looks good for NV. What in the finks happened with Latinos elsewhere?

A lot more Hispanics in Clark than in Washoe.