2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

It looks like New Mexico is going to vote to the right of Colorado, maybe even by a significant margin (Biden +10 vs. Biden +15 right now). Also, Ben Ray Luján is winning by just 4 points.

[The Free North]

Here's something I need an explanation on: Biden's up 46% in Santa Cruz County, Arizona, which is consistent with Hillary's margin there from 2016. That's a heavily Mexican-American county. Biden's margin in the Rio Grande Valley is nowhere near Hillary's margin in the Rio Grande Valley. Are we missing, like, an enormous number of outstanding, Democratic mail votes there, and a much higher turnout than 2016? Because I can't figure out why those margins would be so wildly different.

The Rio Grande numbers are at or over the 2016 numbers, would guess AZ is behind if anything.

[emailking]

NBC called this election 2004 meets 1976.

Feels very fitting honestly.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/johnkruzel/status/1323846082208632835

F*** Republicans

[JerryArkansas]

What is going on in NE-01? The NE Secretary of State website says Biden is up 5??

He is destroying it in Lincoln right now.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I think Biden wins with 291 EV

Are you looking at the same screens I am looking at?

I have Trump already on 293.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I knew Biden would win.... but damn I did not expect it to be like this!

[wbrocks67]

For what it's worth, the exit poll has Biden winning Indies by +11 in PA. Trump won by 7 in 2016.

[MT Treasurer]

Any insight into the Montana Senate race? It looks like Bullock is doing as well as 2018 Tester to me.

No, he’s doing significantly worse than Tester and underperforming his benchmarks in every county that has reported so far. Still too early to call, but Daines is favored.

[RI]

When will NV report?

[Hope For A New Era]

Any insight into the Montana Senate race? It looks like Bullock is doing as well as 2018 Tester to me.

We'll see. I hope, I hope, I hope.

[Calthrina950]

New Mexico is probably going to vote to the right of Colorado, maybe even by a significant margin (Biden +10 vs. Biden +15). Also, Ben Ray Luján is winning by just 4 points.

So what was being said about New Mexico-that it would trend Republican in this election-appears to be coming true. But Lujan winning by such a narrow margin should certainly be alarming for Democrats, and makes the 2026 race there a potential target for Republicans down the road.

[John Dule]

Ohio's margin should have Democrats peeing their pants right now. It's almost exactly the same as 2016.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

CNN reporting that Fairfax will have roughly 400,000 absentee ballots entered into the system within the next couple of hours. 

[dunceDude]

That 538 tool assumes that polling was correct and that Trump isn't likely to win Wisconsin/Michigan. It obviously wasn't and Trump obviously has more than a 10% of winning one of them.

It does not assume polling is correct—otherwise I wouldn't have been able to set Florida red for instance, where Biden was up in polling.

[MillennialModerate]

Senate is gone. Sigh

[Roll Roons]

What is going on in NE-01? The NE Secretary of State website says Biden is up 5??

He is destroying it in Lincoln right now.

Fortenberry appears to be doing worse than Bacon...

[Badger]

Ohio's margin should have Democrats peeing their pants right now. It's almost exactly the same as 2016.

No?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/johnkruzel/status/1323846082208632835

The fact we’re going to be dealing with this crap for a while is the real disappointing thing about tonight

[emailking]

This is a terrible result for anyone who thought Democrats should ignore the Upper Midwest in favor of the SE and the Sunbelt. Y'all just need to listen to us going forward, and let us choose the nominee. Otherwise, you're going to end up with much worse results than 2016/2020. I remember when people were actually arguing with me that Hillary was a better nominee than Obama in 2008! LOL.

They didn't ignore it though.

What if they concentrated 100% on the midwest and narrowly lost both it and FL/GA/NC/AZ? Hindsight is 20/20.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323847769338032128?s=20

[Hope For A New Era]

Ohio's margin should have Democrats peeing their pants right now. It's almost exactly the same as 2016.

Almost all rurals reporting, urban counties (particularly Lucas) are still underreporting.

[The Free North]

Trump flipped LaSalle County, TX

Going back tot he Rio Grande issue

54-42 to 55-45

[Vespucci]

The needle's been slowly moving towards Biden in GA and NC, although Trump is still favored. Down to a 65% chance Trump sweeps the needle states.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CBS marks AZ-SEN as Likely Kelly.