2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Dang, we came real close to winning a county in every state.

592 votes. So close!

Was it West Virginia?

Most likely, Monongalia WV

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So right now everything appears to point to my exact prediction, a close Biden victory where he narrowly holds the former Blue Wall + AZ. Biden is ahead of Hillary's 2016 percentage and total vote in Ohio which is probably the best sign he's had all night and he's got a good lead in Maricopa. We all know that they count the massively pro-Biden early votes last in Pennsylvania so it would appear Biden is in a good place compared to last election once you look past the panicking from everyone who thought Biden would crush the Southeast.

But.

There are things that look a lot better for Trump than expected. He's pulling off turnout and margins in Appalachian counties that nobody though possible, which is part of why there's so much drama around Virginia (Biden will still win, but it'll be much closer than people thought). Biden was supposed to flip the white working class votes but that appears to be pretty marginal since Trump is already approaching his 2016 margins and turnout if not surpassing them in counties like Erie (52% Trump -> 55% Trump) and Lorain (47.5% Trump -> 50.5% Trump). Biden's margins are mostly being carried by primarily Suburban gains like in Franklin (60% Clinton -> 68% Biden).

Frankly, if Trump's rural and working class small town/suburban margins look like they do in Ohio then you can forget all the polling from Michigan or Wisconsin since Biden's big leads there were predicated on a significantly better working class margin. If Trump is doing no worse than 2016 except in suburbs then suddenly those states look real close. I also wouldn't read too much into the "red mirage" since, besides Pennsylvania the mail in vote didn't go as hard for Biden as some people seem to think. For example, Republicans in Michigan have a long tradition of mail in voting, and most of what I've seen suggests they'll put up a strong fight. In Wisconsin the early votes are pretty good for Biden but from what I've heard urban turnout is down and Wisconsin suburbs are uniquely favourable to Trump even if he's behind.

I wouldn't say any of the three states is favoured to Trump, but I'm having a real hard time saying that the odds are better for Trump to not win any of them. I really don't know who I'd rather be right now but Trump sure has momentum considering where he was sitting earlier.

[here2view]

What is going on in NE-01? The NE Secretary of State website says Biden is up 5??

[Roronoa D. Law]

Dang, we came real close to winning a county in every state.

592 votes. So close!

Was it West Virginia?

Oklahoma county was close to.

[Alben Barkley]

Dang, we came real close to winning a county in every state.

592 votes. So close!

Was it West Virginia?

It’s annoying that people post stuff like that without saying what state they’re talking about.

[Bootes Void]

For NC: Postmarked ballots are accepted until Nov. 12, but officials have said they expect 97 percent of ballots to be reported on election night.

-I think Trump may narrowly win but there are some mail ballots and still some votes left in urban areas. It wont be called for a little while

[Illiniwek]

I think Joe Biden takes the presidency, but I'm seeing a 51R-49 senate map which will be disastrous, maybe we can narrowly win the senate 50D-50D with Maine flipping but that's worrisome.

This is what we are closing in on. Its going to be an ugly couple of years.

[sguberman]

Does anyone else notice that it seems the most west you go the better it's getting for Biden relatively speaking.

2018?

For 2020, he doesn't appear to be running behind his polling in the western parts of the country.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/joeminocqua/status/1323845511011569666?s=19

[Hindsight was 2020]

Arizona is a big blow to any chance for Trump and the fact NE-02, Wis, Mi, and Penn all are looking good for Biden should put the doomers to bed

[Rand]

Deschutes County, OR is blue. *unzips, finally*

[Alben Barkley]

Arizona is a big blow to any chance for Trump and the fact NE-02, Wis, Mi, and Penn all are looking good for Biden should put the doomers to bed

Should but it won’t. Hell they’d just wet the bed anyway.

[The Free North]

Trump up solidly in IA now which should shock no one.

[GoTfan]

Arizona is a big blow to any chance for Trump and the fact NE-02, Wis, Mi, and Penn all are looking good for Biden should put the doomers to bed

Isn't Trump ahead by a pretty good margin?

[Roronoa D. Law]

Does anyone else notice that it seems the most west you go the better it's getting for Biden relatively speaking.

2018?

For 2020, he doesn't appear to be running behind his polling in the western parts of the country.

What's crazy is that Biden still ahead in El Dorado County and Ada County.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Here's something I need an explanation on: Biden's up 46% in Santa Cruz County, Arizona, which is consistent with Hillary's margin there from 2016. That's a heavily Mexican-American county. Biden's margin in the Rio Grande Valley is nowhere near Hillary's margin in the Rio Grande Valley. Are we missing, like, an enormous number of outstanding, Democratic mail votes there, and a much higher turnout than 2016? Because I can't figure out why those margins would be so wildly different.

[Hope For A New Era]

Dang, we came real close to winning a county in every state.

592 votes. So close!

Was it West Virginia?

Yes. Lost Monongalia by 592.

NC does look likely to go to Trump, unless that last 5% is all mail

Any indications that the mail-in votes are what is out?

Orange, Forsyth, Buncombe, Mecklenburg.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Deschutes County, OR is blue. *unzips, finally*

Bend Biden!

[Pyro]

Any insight into the Montana Senate race? It looks like Bullock is doing as well as 2018 Tester to me.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

NBC called this election 2004 meets 1976.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Arizona is a big blow to any chance for Trump and the fact NE-02, Wis, Mi, and Penn all are looking good for Biden should put the doomers to bed

Isn't Trump ahead by a pretty good margin?

Not really considering how much EV/Mail in is left and how lopsided dem it was

[Fargobison]

https://twitter.com/johnkruzel/status/1323846082208632835

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/ParkerMolloy/status/1323844446199386112

[Horatii]

That 538 tool assumes that polling was correct and that Trump isn't likely to win Wisconsin/Michigan. It obviously wasn't and Trump obviously has more than a 10% of winning one of them.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

(NYT) Biden has pulled within around two points of Trump in Virginia.  Fairfax County still stuck at 28% reporting -- that should, for all intents and purposes, put to bed any thoughts of Virginia flipping.