2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[GoTfan]

Ohio and Nc look good for Biden

What the hell are you looking at?

[pepper11]

Trump will probably win PA. But if not NV more likely

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Collin County finally posted! 95% in, +4 Trump

Good news for Biden.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1323804990532702211?s=19

[Ye We Can]

Trump will probably win PA. But if not NV more likely

lol

[wbrocks67]

Again though: is this not the point in 2018 when people said no blue wave and then...?

FL appears to still be an isolated incident?

Like in OH, was Hillary still up double digits with 50% of the vote in?

[Fargobison]

Haven't seen much mention of Minnesota yet. How are people feeling about Minnesota?

Seems like he should be doing similar or slightly better based on what is going on.

[Storr]

VA is looking strange.

Trump might also win AZ and NV.

NM is going to be close.

unlikely for Nevada: https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=9054

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Ohio, man....

CNN reporting that Biden is overperforming Clinton in some twelve to fifteen counties/underperforming her in zero.    

Trump is underperforming himself in a single county (I think it was either Pike or Highland).  

Something to watch as the night progresses.  

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm feeling spooked by the numbers in the RGV, ngl.

[Crumpets]

NYT finally calls IN for Trump.

[ProudModerate2]

Again though: is this not the point in 2018 when people said no blue wave and then...?
FL appears to still be an isolated incident?
Like in OH, was Hillary still up double digits with 50% of the vote in?

People here are saying that Hillary was leading with a similar lead in OH.

[lfromnj]

Prediction from Tender:

Biden might actually lose this election.

No, he's almost certainly going to improve over Hillary well enough to win. Miami is not the pattern but the exception.

Hispanics seem like they're swinging pretty hard to Trump, which puts the entire sunbelt out of play. Trump also seems like he's overperforming in rural counties.

Biden only needs WI + MI + PA and with the rural white swings he's very likely to get them, and it looks like overall whites swinging to Biden will swamp minorities swinging to Trump.

Rural whites have not swung D, stop trying to gaslight this forum
Looking through the 98% counted Indiana counties it just seems in most of them the 3rd party has split 50/50 with some counties swinging a point or 2 D and some swinging R. However due to increased turnout this is a pretty big net gain for Trump. However white suburban areas have zoomed left even past 2018 levels and this is why Biden is still favored in the critical 3.
 

[7,052,770]

Is there any evidence that the "Hispanic swing" goes beyond Cubans and Venezuelans?

[wbrocks67]

Well if we're going by the exit polls, they had Biden doing very well in Michigan, Minnesota, New hampshire, etc., but had Trump doing well in FL.

Is it quite possible that a lot of vote is still out in some of these states?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Again though: is this not the point in 2018 when people said no blue wave and then...?

FL appears to still be an isolated incident?

Like in OH, was Hillary still up double digits with 50% of the vote in?

They're all mail ins. Not sure if Hillary was up with 50% but she was up by a similar margin for a while at the beginning of 2016.

Can't really conclude anything definitively yet but a narrow Biden win still looks more likely than not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everyone that said Kemp and DeSantis and Rubio were vulnerable in 2022 are wrong, they will be comfortably reelected no matter whom they face. Looks like Warnock will go to runoff not Perdue, he wins reelection

[Saruku]

Is there any evidence that the "Hispanic swing" goes beyond Cubans and Venezuelans?

Yes, Tejanos

[Zache]

Did I time travel back to 2004?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mkraju/status/1323803171257540610
This feels more 2018 then 16 were we let Florida bum everyone out but as the night goes on...

[ProudModerate2]

What is going on in Michigan.
Are numbers from the big cities not in yet?

[Suburbia]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1323795907960254465

Maybe Democrats will distance from BLM on some of their issues.....

[LabourJersey]

Again though: is this not the point in 2018 when people said no blue wave and then...?

FL appears to still be an isolated incident?

Like in OH, was Hillary still up double digits with 50% of the vote in?

Yeah, I do remember it wasn't clear how good 2018 was until after 11.

Let's hope it becomes a better picture for Dems before 11 at the least.

I still think Biden will win in the midwest but I still feel nervy. But I did feel nervy early on in 2018 too

[Non Swing Voter]

As much as people said not to look at the early vote, I feel like the early vote made me most optimistic about NC of all the southern states and I still feel that way...

[Pericles]

Prediction from Tender:

Biden might actually lose this election.

No, he's almost certainly going to improve over Hillary well enough to win. Miami is not the pattern but the exception.

Hispanics seem like they're swinging pretty hard to Trump, which puts the entire sunbelt out of play. Trump also seems like he's overperforming in rural counties.

Biden only needs WI + MI + PA and with the rural white swings he's very likely to get them, and it looks like overall whites swinging to Biden will swamp minorities swinging to Trump.

Rural whites have not swung D, stop trying to gaslight this forum
Looking through the 98% counted Indiana counties it just seems in most of them the 3rd party has split 50/50 with some counties swinging a point or 2 D and some swinging R. However due to increased turnout this is a pretty big net gain for Trump. However white suburban areas have zoomed left even past 2018 levels and this is why Biden is still favored in the critical 3.
 

Biden was polling better with non college-educated whites than either Hillary's 2016 polling or result, and this is clearly being seen in counties across the map (just look at Ohio).