2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[soundchaser]

Quite confused why people think these Miami numbers are good for Biden.

E-day is still underperforming partisan registration in Miami and early voting (Early +VBM). The biggest warning signs in Florida remain south Florida for Democrats, but the GOP should be concerned about suburban Orlando and Jax.  IF you want to be optimistic for Bide, cite Seminole county, not Miami-Dade.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

This is a great link to track how turnout relative to 2016 looks by partisan registration. Run by a GOP hack, but the data is solid, just a little delayed.

For me I just generally like that South Florida turnout is up a lot.  I feel like independents will probably lean Biden there and Republicans are more likely to crossover in places like Broward.  It just seems like the overall electorate is more urban/suburban than last time.

Yep, generally speaking this electorate looks a lot more like 2018’s than 2016’s so far.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1323712802805067776

[YE]

You guys are reading way too much into ancendotal evidence. Dem partisans predicting wins don’t mean much.

[Bootes Void]

PA Dems are saying Montgomery County (Clinton +20) could hit 90% turnout. That would be up from 77% in 2016.

God damn

[MasterJedi]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1323712802805067776

Jesus, they're not even trying to hide it anymore.

[Hope For A New Era]

I'm not saying it's over, but I am saying I need to go get that Woodbury quote ready.

I thought that was ReapSow's job!

PA Dems are saying Montgomery County (Clinton +20) could hit 90% turnout. That would be up from 77% in 2016.

omg

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Lots of posts about turnout in D areas. Any numbers of election day turnout in rural R counties? 

[Bootes Void]

Broward aint stopping
https://mobile.twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323723553934610434

[Bojack Horseman]

PA Dems are saying Montgomery County (Clinton +20) could hit 90% turnout. That would be up from 77% in 2016.

*unzips*

[Storr]

What's Arizona looking like?

Like a square with a slanted bottom

Thank you Gadsden Purchase, very angular and cool.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Our Progress election forecast has Trump only getting 60% of the vote in Forsyth! Biden also very close to 40%.

https://www.ourprogress.org/president/georgia

[Non Swing Voter]

Quite confused why people think these Miami numbers are good for Biden.

E-day is still underperforming partisan registration in Miami and early voting (Early +VBM). The biggest warning signs in Florida remain south Florida for Democrats, but the GOP should be concerned about suburban Orlando and Jax.  IF you want to be optimistic for Bide, cite Seminole county, not Miami-Dade.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

This is a great link to track how turnout relative to 2016 looks by partisan registration. Run by a GOP hack, but the data is solid, just a little delayed.

For me I just generally like that South Florida turnout is up a lot.  I feel like independents will probably lean Biden there and Republicans are more likely to crossover in places like Broward.  It just seems like the overall electorate is more urban/suburban than last time.

Yep, generally speaking this electorate looks a lot more like 2018’s than 2016’s so far.

Ever since 2016 it's the same electorate showing up and the suburbs are dominating it.  

[Holmes]

Quite confused why people think these Miami numbers are good for Biden.

E-day is still underperforming partisan registration in Miami and early voting (Early +VBM). The biggest warning signs in Florida remain south Florida for Democrats, but the GOP should be concerned about suburban Orlando and Jax.  IF you want to be optimistic for Bide, cite Seminole county, not Miami-Dade.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

This is a great link to track how turnout relative to 2016 looks by partisan registration. Run by a GOP hack, but the data is solid, just a little delayed.

We know Miami-Dade turnout isn’t as amazing for Dems compared to the rest of the state, but that’s already banked into the statewide numbers we’re seeing. The fact that Dems are outpacing Reps in ED voting in the county is good for Dems statewide.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Our Progress election forecast has Trump only getting 60% of the vote in Forsyth! Biden also very close to 40%.

https://www.ourprogress.org/president/georgia

Forsyth was Trump 70.6 - 23.7 - 5.7 in 2016.  

[Non Swing Voter]

want to see what turnout looks like in a purely 100% Democratic microcosm looks like?

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1323723413094096896

[Bootes Void]

bit of perspective in republican areas in PA
https://mobile.twitter.com/JarrettRenshaw/status/1323724485246279680

[ExSky]

Our Progress election forecast has Trump only getting 60% of the vote in Forsyth! Biden also very close to 40%.

https://www.ourprogress.org/president/georgia

Forsyth was Trump 70.6 - 23.7 - 5.7 in 2016.  

60-40 would be stunning and perhaps indicative of the type of shift coming in Other suburbs (Montgomery 👀) I don’t think ForsythVoter even expected this.

[Hope For A New Era]

Ever since 2016 it's the same electorate showing up and the suburbs are dominating it.  

It's the "Never Again!" electorate.

[Suburbia]

Main Line Republicans who vote for Trump will be ostracized (Eagles, Phillies employees)

[Non Swing Voter]

Ever since 2016 it's the same electorate showing up and the suburbs are dominating it.  

It's the "Never Again!" electorate.

The "never again" electorate was when inner suburbs were projected to be 85% turnout.  

Now we are just purely into the "JAIL TIME MOTHER F*****" electorate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Our Progress election forecast has Trump only getting 60% of the vote in Forsyth! Biden also very close to 40%.

https://www.ourprogress.org/president/georgia

Forsyth was Trump 70.6 - 23.7 - 5.7 in 2016.  

60-40 would be stunning and perhaps indicative of the type of shift coming in Other suburbs (Montgomery 👀) I don’t think ForsythVoter even expected this.

I (a long-term Forsyth resident) predicted Trump 65-35 this year.  If he was held close to 60 it would be shocking, and Biden would be heavily favored to win the state.

[Rand]

Biden continues to rise on PredictIt. I’m also continuing to rise...

[ExSky]

Our Progress election forecast has Trump only getting 60% of the vote in Forsyth! Biden also very close to 40%.

https://www.ourprogress.org/president/georgia

Forsyth was Trump 70.6 - 23.7 - 5.7 in 2016.  

60-40 would be stunning and perhaps indicative of the type of shift coming in Other suburbs (Montgomery 👀) I don’t think ForsythVoter even expected this.

I (a long-term Forsyth resident) predicted Trump 65-35 this year.  If he was held close to 60 it would be shocking, and Biden would be heavily favored to win the state.

Do you think this result is plausible?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Our Progress election forecast has Trump only getting 60% of the vote in Forsyth! Biden also very close to 40%.

Snip!

Forsyth was Trump 70.6 - 23.7 - 5.7 in 2016.  

60-40 would be stunning and perhaps indicative of the type of shift coming in Other suburbs (Montgomery 👀) I don’t think ForsythVoter even expected this.

I (a long-term Forsyth resident) predicted Trump 65-35 this year.  If he was held close to 60 it would be shocking, and Biden would be heavily favored to win the state.

Would you say Forsyth is what Cobb used to be? (a solidly-Republican, relatively high-population county?)

[Gren]

Broward aint stopping
https://mobile.twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323723553934610434

So the trend continues in this third turnout report from Broward.
Comparing to the previous one, raw votes have grown in the following way:

R+18%
D+22%
NPA/O +22%

If we compare it with the first report:

R+64%
D+77%
NPA/O +81%

It does seem true that, as the day goes by, the electorate becomes more favourable to Biden.