2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[ExSky]

So....who the numbers look good for so far?

Kanye

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/EmmaKinery/status/1323689787191103488

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So....who the numbers look good for so far?

Depends on who you ask.  

No, seriously.  It literally depends on who you ask.

[new_patomic]

If I'm understanding correctly, so far Republicans are winning the ED vote in Florida 50-25-25? From the counties reporting registration #s at least.

[ultraviolet]

So....who the numbers look good for so far?

We literally have no idea

[Baki]

Trump just pulled together all his genius in one moment to conclude:

"Winning is easy, losing is hard."

What was that little Arlington gathering about?

Nothing. It's just him visiting his campaign headquarters.

[Non Swing Voter]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

My reasons for being fairly confident have been laid out. Let’s wait and see but I suspect I’m gonna be cheering this evening

What are you confident about again? 

Biden taking Florida

Can you give a 2 sentence summary of why you think that's going to happen?  

My explanation is on the previous page but the two main points are that the R ballot lead is not growing anywhere near fast enough and a conservative estimate on NPAs breaking for
Biden gets him across the line.

Seems about right, I just think it's hard to estimate exactly how many votes R's need to be ahead in terms of party turnout to win. 400k seems too high.

[Diabolical Materialism]

Where are y'all getting these results from?

[swf541]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

My reasons for being fairly confident have been laid out. Let’s wait and see but I suspect I’m gonna be cheering this evening

What are you confident about again? 

Biden taking Florida

Can you give a 2 sentence summary of why you think that's going to happen?  

My explanation is on the previous page but the two main points are that the R ballot lead is not growing anywhere near fast enough and a conservative estimate on NPAs breaking for
Biden gets him across the line.

Seems about right, I just think it's hard to estimate exactly how many votes R's need to be ahead in terms of party turnout to win. 400k seems too high.

I thought Nate Silver also said the 400k number
I could be wrong, I remember someone of note also saying it on twitter this morning

[ExSky]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

My reasons for being fairly confident have been laid out. Let’s wait and see but I suspect I’m gonna be cheering this evening

What are you confident about again? 

Biden taking Florida

Can you give a 2 sentence summary of why you think that's going to happen?  

My explanation is on the previous page but the two main points are that the R ballot lead is not growing anywhere near fast enough and a conservative estimate on NPAs breaking for
Biden gets him across the line.

Seems about right, I just think it's hard to estimate exactly how many votes R's need to be ahead in terms of party turnout to win. 400k seems too high.

Yea it’s definitely a very rough estimate but it appears than turnout is going to be higher than expected even in Florida. I think it’s a bit high but even 300k wouldn’t worry me too much

[Inmate Trump]

I started this Election Day with a covid-19 rapid test, after being exposed last Thursday and experiencing what I thought was allergy symptoms this past weekend (I assumed so because it was before I knew I'd been exposed).

The test showed negative, and I'm praying it wasn't a false negative.

While reading about possible riots on the streets tonight.



This is Trump's America.

[Non Swing Voter]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

My reasons for being fairly confident have been laid out. Let’s wait and see but I suspect I’m gonna be cheering this evening

What are you confident about again? 

Biden taking Florida

Can you give a 2 sentence summary of why you think that's going to happen?  

My explanation is on the previous page but the two main points are that the R ballot lead is not growing anywhere near fast enough and a conservative estimate on NPAs breaking for
Biden gets him across the line.

Seems about right, I just think it's hard to estimate exactly how many votes R's need to be ahead in terms of party turnout to win. 400k seems too high.

I thought Nate Silver also said the 400k number
I could be wrong, I remember someone of note also saying it on twitter this morning

Interesting.  I thought he was of the "turnout numbers don't matter at all" mindset.

I mean, if it really is 400k that the GOP needs to feel safe in Florida then they're screwed.  It just seems high to me.

[Non Swing Voter]

I started this Election Day with a covid-19 rapid test, after being exposed last Thursday and experiencing what I thought was allergy symptoms this past weekend (I assumed so because it was before I knew I'd been exposed).

The test showed negative, and I'm praying it wasn't a false negative.

While reading about possible riots on the streets tonight.



This is Trump's America.

Somehow Trump convinced 40% of the country that the riots are because of private citizen Joe Biden.

[soundchaser]

Precinct update: we just had our first real break in the line, six and a half hours after opening. Don’t really know anything about the results yet, but turnout definitely isn’t as high as it was in 2016. (Which is probably fine in this Trump area.)

I’ll give a sneak peak at results as soon as we print them out and post them.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

How do Arizona numbers look?

[Bootes Void]

a little while back

https://twitter.com/browardpolitics/status/1323684643888091142

[ExSky]

I started this Election Day with a covid-19 rapid test, after being exposed last Thursday and experiencing what I thought was allergy symptoms this past weekend (I assumed so because it was before I knew I'd been exposed).

The test showed negative, and I'm praying it wasn't a false negative.

While reading about possible riots on the streets tonight.



This is Trump's America.

Somehow Trump convinced 40% of the country that the riots are because of private citizen Joe Biden.

What did Hillary say about a certain 40% of the population? Hmm

[President Johnson]

a little while back

https://twitter.com/browardpolitics/status/1323684643888091142

So this is good for Biden, right?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CHI2JjEBVP-/?igshid=ph6jmxjtg5hz

[Bootes Void]

I started this Election Day with a covid-19 rapid test, after being exposed last Thursday and experiencing what I thought was allergy symptoms this past weekend (I assumed so because it was before I knew I'd been exposed).

The test showed negative, and I'm praying it wasn't a false negative.

While reading about possible riots on the streets tonight.



This is Trump's America.

Somehow Trump convinced 40% of the country that the riots are because of private citizen Joe Biden.

What did Hillary say about a certain 40% of the population? Hmm

50*46=23. More like 23% tbh

[Non Swing Voter]

The 5 most populous counties in Florida all appear to already be way above their 2016 vote totals.  Particularly Orange and Broward.

[xavier110]

How do Arizona numbers look?

Fewer election day votes in Maricopa vs. this same time in 2018. Not sure what that means in practice, but if Trump's banking on ED vote, that doesn't sound great to me.

https://twitter.com/A_R_Stumpf/status/1323690489380446208

[NYSforKennedy2024]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CHI2JjEBVP-/?igshid=ph6jmxjtg5hz

Damn it, EDP.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1323678629491056642

[ExSky]

We really need Miami Dade numbers to make this thing go nuclear.