2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Tender Branson]

First in the nation ?

Not so much.

NH is the only state now not to submit its Electoral Vote certificate ...

[South Dakota Democrat]

How is Georgia looking?

Perdue has easily won.

Trump won narrowly which is miraculous for Dems. The state has been a lost cause for years and especially this cycle. No matter how much of a hard on they get for it - it’s not happening and the fact people still at this hour believe it to have a chance of going Dem just shows the bankruptcy of their political analysis

I gotta bump this.

[Tender Branson]

First in the nation ?

Not so much.

NH is the only state now not to submit its Electoral Vote certificate ...

NH has missed the deadline. Probably lost in the mail or something.

December 23, 2020—electoral votes arrive.

Electoral votes (the Certificates of Vote) must be received by the President of the Senate and the Archivist no later than nine days after the meeting of the electors.

If votes are lost or delayed, the Archivist may take extraordinary measures to retrieve duplicate originals.

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020

[South Dakota Democrat]

Mark my words: Pennsylvania is the election. Every remaining state is going Trump

Just marking your words, as you requested.

(We gotta get this to 800 pages somehow.)

[Tender Branson]

If my certified state results thread gets merged with this, it would have 816 pages.

[South Dakota Democrat]

If my certified state results thread gets merged with this, it would have 816 pages.

I requested that twice in the other thread.  Crickets both times.

[UncleSam]

Mark my words: Pennsylvania is the election. Every remaining state is going Trump

Just marking your words, as you requested.

(We gotta get this to 800 pages somehow.)

I mean, that just means he was wrong on Georgia and Arizona. Admittedly Arizona never looked better than a Lean D race, but Georgia there was no precedent for the trickle of absentee ballots that arrived and were counted in the week following the election.

The bigger problem is that he apparently thought Georgia would never go Dem, which was obviously always false. Georgia is gone for Rs in ten years’ time, possibly sooner (I think Rs will win it in the Biden midterm and maybe in 2024 with someone who does better in the suburbs, but 2026 GA = 2006 VA IMO).

[South Dakota Democrat]

Mark my words: Pennsylvania is the election. Every remaining state is going Trump

Just marking your words, as you requested.

(We gotta get this to 800 pages somehow.)

I mean, that just means he was wrong on Georgia and Arizona. Admittedly Arizona never looked better than a Lean D race, but Georgia there was no precedent for the trickle of absentee ballots that arrived and were counted in the week following the election.

The bigger problem is that he apparently thought Georgia would never go Dem, which was obviously always false. Georgia is gone for Rs in ten years’ time, possibly sooner (I think Rs will win it in the Biden midterm and maybe in 2024 with someone who does better in the suburbs, but 2026 GA = 2006 VA IMO).

It wasn't like he just made a prediction and left it at that though....he was constantly,  obnoxiously,  and ridiculously ignoring all evidence on both states (especially GA). I think he deserves some mockery for that. And he did ask that his words be marked,  after all.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Seriously though, can we merge this with the electoral college vote thread?

[forsythvoter]

Since everyone seems to be taking a trip down memory lane, here's a few quotes that I think summed up this election for me:

It actually seems like Biden's strategy of trying to play in both the Sunbelt (AZ + GA) and Rust Belt (WI, MI, PA) might have actually been the right strategy. If he wins, he will do so by winning at least 1 state in each region.

I live in nearby South Forsyth County and would bet money on Biden flipping a number of northern Atlanta suburbs. A lot of my co-workers live in Roswell, Alpharetta, Johns Creek, Dunwoody and a good number of them are flipping from Trump to Biden this year. The ones that are flipping are still undecided on the senate races, though - many of us vote Republican out of habit, but Trump is really causing a lot of folks in this area to have second thoughts now that it's "Trump's Party". Trump will still win more exurban areas (including my county and nearby Cherokee), but I'll be curious to see the margins. I've seen quite a few Biden signs in my neighborhood, which would have been unheard of up until fairly recently.

One final closing comment. If Biden wins tonight, it will be because of the suburban swings against Trump:

GA: Metro Atlanta counties are swinging double digits against Trump. If GA falls to the Dems, it will be because of these swings

WI: Look at the WOW counties. Waukesha and Ozaukee are showing 7-8% swings to Biden. It's these swings that are keeping Biden competitive despite losing counties in the Southwest.
*On a separate note, Dane's turnout also may prove to be a key factor

AZ: Look at Maricopa. Enough said

MN: Look at Hennepin and counties like Carver and Scott. This is why the state is not the nailbiter we saw in 2016.

The list goes on but I need sleep.

[Skill and Chance]

Mark my words: Pennsylvania is the election. Every remaining state is going Trump

Just marking your words, as you requested.

(We gotta get this to 800 pages somehow.)

I mean, that just means he was wrong on Georgia and Arizona. Admittedly Arizona never looked better than a Lean D race, but Georgia there was no precedent for the trickle of absentee ballots that arrived and were counted in the week following the election.

The bigger problem is that he apparently thought Georgia would never go Dem, which was obviously always false. Georgia is gone for Rs in ten years’ time, possibly sooner (I think Rs will win it in the Biden midterm and maybe in 2024 with someone who does better in the suburbs, but 2026 GA = 2006 VA IMO).

It wasn't like he just made a prediction and left it at that though....he was constantly,  obnoxiously,  and ridiculously ignoring all evidence on both states (especially GA). I think he deserves some mockery for that. And he did ask that his words be marked,  after all.

Virtually no one expected Biden to win GA at +4.5 in the NPV. 

[South Dakota Democrat]

Mark my words: Pennsylvania is the election. Every remaining state is going Trump

Just marking your words, as you requested.

(We gotta get this to 800 pages somehow.)

I mean, that just means he was wrong on Georgia and Arizona. Admittedly Arizona never looked better than a Lean D race, but Georgia there was no precedent for the trickle of absentee ballots that arrived and were counted in the week following the election.

The bigger problem is that he apparently thought Georgia would never go Dem, which was obviously always false. Georgia is gone for Rs in ten years’ time, possibly sooner (I think Rs will win it in the Biden midterm and maybe in 2024 with someone who does better in the suburbs, but 2026 GA = 2006 VA IMO).

It wasn't like he just made a prediction and left it at that though....he was constantly,  obnoxiously,  and ridiculously ignoring all evidence on both states (especially GA). I think he deserves some mockery for that. And he did ask that his words be marked,  after all.

Virtually no one expected Biden to win GA at +4.5 in the NPV. 

Perhaps, but that was speculation beforehand.  We had actual data to go on on election night and in the immediate days after, and he ignored the evidence, called anyone who mentioned said evidence stupid and living in fantasy land, etc.

[emailking]

Mail is slow as molasses here right now with the increase in online holiday shopping due to Covid, plus the increase in workers required to isolate because of Covid.

[Badger]

This thread just might hit 800 pages after all

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

I swear someone posted a different Nov 3rd retweet of this article earlier that day, in this megathread. It said something along the lines of "uhh yeah let me know how that's going"


https://twitter.com/AnaKasparian/status/1323832469997588480

[Bootes Void]

I swear someone posted a different Nov 3rd retweet of this article earlier that day, in this megathread. It said something along the lines of "uhh yeah let me know how that's going"


https://twitter.com/AnaKasparian/status/1323832469997588480

there is already a thread for this.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

I swear someone posted a different Nov 3rd retweet of this article earlier that day, in this megathread. It said something along the lines of "uhh yeah let me know how that's going"


https://twitter.com/AnaKasparian/status/1323832469997588480

there is already a thread for this.

I know, but I think the post/retweet I was referring to was originally posted in this thread.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Genuinely concerned this election could be stolen.

Any rational personal would feel the same

Nope.  The rational people think we’re overreacting.

Dems are actively trying to steal it from Trump right now in Detroit and Philadelphia. This is 1960 all over again except Trump will fight.

I know this was from awhile back, but seriously...explain how counting votes is stealing.  I'll wait.

[NYDem]

Genuinely concerned this election could be stolen.

Any rational personal would feel the same

Nope.  The rational people think we’re overreacting.

Dems are actively trying to steal it from Trump right now in Detroit and Philadelphia. This is 1960 all over again except Trump will fight.

I know this was from awhile back, but seriously...explain how counting votes is stealing.  I'll wait.

If you're expecting SN2930 to make any sense or admit failure your expectations are too high.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I get unmuted in the middle of the night when everyone is asleep, this is cruel lol

[Tender Branson]

NHs certificate of vote has finally been received at the National Archives.

It looks like a Christmas card.

This means all 51 certificates of ascertainment & all 51 certificates of electoral votes have been received.

The certification process is now complete.

Plz merge the thread with the results thread.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

816 pages. We did it, ladies and germs.

[Tender Branson]

816 pages. We did it, ladies and germs.

Because I requested the merger with my „certified results thread“ ...

The certification process is now complete (except for the vote count in Congress next Wednesday).

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

I get unmuted in the middle of the night when everyone is asleep, this is cruel lol

This megathread is gonna look super disjointed after the certified results thread merge

[emailking]

Yeah this was dumb. Now my last post is just hanging out in no man's land.