2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Roll Roons]

People who lean left really didn't mess around this election. Howie Hawkins only got .25%. That's the worst performance for the Green Party I've ever seen. Howie Hawkins doesn't even seem that bad, he's not a clown like Stein but still, rather impressive how united the left was this election.

That's true but there were some votes for Jorgensen and other third parties. Overall the third party vote is smaller this year because the bases were more supportive of their candidiates compared to 2016

Also I think a lot of Trump-weary Republicans and right-leaning independents switched to Biden this time after having voted for either Johnson or McMullin in 2016.

[Antonio the Sixth]

People who lean left really didn't mess around this election. Howie Hawkins only got .25%. That's the worst performance for the Green Party I've ever seen. Howie Hawkins doesn't even seem that bad, he's not a clown like Stein but still, rather impressive how united the left was this election.

That's true but there were some votes for Jorgensen and other third parties. Overall the third party vote is smaller this year because the bases were more supportive of their candidiates compared to 2016

Still higher third-party vote than 2012, 2008 and 2004. Kinda disappointing honestly, but I guess it makes sense.

[Non Swing Voter]

I am still enjoying Trump's mental breakdown.  I even started following him on twitter just to revel in his complete break from reality. 

[Mr. Smith]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 573847 (73.5%)
Trump 193539 (24.8%)
Total 780330

Margin of 48.7%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +2.6%, so average swing of 51.3%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4272479 (57.5%)
Trump 3044309 (40.9%)
Total 7296726

standard map:

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/519209100177965071/781359852127649852/unknown.png

swings:

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/519209100177965071/781361217067024394/unknown.png

Excellent, thank you!!

Kinda disappointed in the North Country honestly. The Essex swing made me hope that it'd come back as a block or almost, but in the end Biden only won 2 of the 4 core counties and one of them even swung to the right. At least the other 3 clearly trended left. Guess I'll take it.

Do you plan on updating your Redrawn States Project to include the 2020 election, when all of the results have been certified? I'd be interested to see how Biden fared on your map.

Of course! It will probably be sometime next year though, given how long it takes for all these results to come out.

I think I can already eyeball what the map looks like, anyway. Biden has definitely won Adirondack. Clinton only lost it by 2 points, and it looks like the statewide swing will be around 4-5 points. Not sure if Biden flips any other redrawn state, though of course he does flip AZ and GA. Upper Peninsula votes might be just enough to sink him in Wisconsin. South Florida and Rio Grande also definitely swung GOP, though Biden still probably carries them. California was probably pretty stable, meaning Biden wins it by 2-3 points. All in all, that should probably add up to 315 EVs for Biden, with an off-chance of 297 or 325 (depending on SF and WI, probably the closest states).

I'll follow up on the 100 States project as well, which at this point I think is more interesting since it has a lot more detail.

Hillary defeated Trump on your map because of that change...that and the PA split.

Are there any Clinton-Trump states out of this?

[Hammy]

I am still enjoying Trump's mental breakdown.  I even started following him on twitter just to revel in his complete break from reality. 

Probably one of the few followers he's gained since losing.

[Pro-Israel, anti-Bibi]

[Bomster]

Indiana?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 573847 (73.5%)
Trump 193539 (24.8%)
Total 780330

Margin of 48.7%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +2.6%, so average swing of 51.3%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4272479 (57.5%)
Trump 3044309 (40.9%)
Total 7296726

standard map:

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/519209100177965071/781359852127649852/unknown.png

swings:

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/519209100177965071/781361217067024394/unknown.png

Excellent, thank you!!

Kinda disappointed in the North Country honestly. The Essex swing made me hope that it'd come back as a block or almost, but in the end Biden only won 2 of the 4 core counties and one of them even swung to the right. At least the other 3 clearly trended left. Guess I'll take it.

Do you plan on updating your Redrawn States Project to include the 2020 election, when all of the results have been certified? I'd be interested to see how Biden fared on your map.

Of course! It will probably be sometime next year though, given how long it takes for all these results to come out.

I think I can already eyeball what the map looks like, anyway. Biden has definitely won Adirondack. Clinton only lost it by 2 points, and it looks like the statewide swing will be around 4-5 points. Not sure if Biden flips any other redrawn state, though of course he does flip AZ and GA. Upper Peninsula votes might be just enough to sink him in Wisconsin. South Florida and Rio Grande also definitely swung GOP, though Biden still probably carries them. California was probably pretty stable, meaning Biden wins it by 2-3 points. All in all, that should probably add up to 315 EVs for Biden, with an off-chance of 297 or 325 (depending on SF and WI, probably the closest states).

I'll follow up on the 100 States project as well, which at this point I think is more interesting since it has a lot more detail.

Hillary defeated Trump on your map because of that change...that and the PA split.

Are there any Clinton-Trump states out of this?

I dunno about Antonio's state map, but Rio Grande in my different states thing could have gone Trump.

[Pro-Israel, anti-Bibi]

Indiana?

Yes?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are there any Clinton-Trump states out of this?

South Florida could very well be one. I think that one goes down to the wire. Clinton won it by 7, so with a 22-point swing in Miami-Dade and a 5-point swing in Broward you can see how things get very close. Democratic swings in the Tampa Bay area and the Southwestern coast might ease things a bit, but I still think that one is within 1 point either way.

Rio Grande and California are off-chances too, but I doubt it. Clinton won RG by 10, and the Democratic swings in the Austin-San Antonio area should seriously tamp down whatever happened near the river itself. California was only a 2-point win in 2016, but it most likely swung to Biden given that Kern, Fresno and Sacramento did (though it definitely trended R). So I'd say maybe one, maybe none.

[Sorenroy]

Another more complex gradient scale

Why not use the gradient in your signature? I know it measures percent chance rather than voteshare, but it's a good set of colors. Just make the color max out at 60% or something and have the lightest colors give way to the darker ones at lower amounts.

[NOVA Green]

So aside with the color shading discussion (I will go with whatever everyone else decides to go with), it appears that Alaska is delaying their certification because of the Ballot Measure #2 Audit.

https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2020/11/26/alaska-election-results-wont-be-certified-until-at-least-friday-before-ballot-measure-2-audit-begins/

That being said, can I feel confident that the 2020 PRES GE numbers are correct?

I just want to make sure before I run some final precinct numbers that there still aren't PRES ballots floating around out there....

Opinions y'all?

[Bootes Void]

Does anyone know what's the median age for a Trump voter and a Biden voter? I remember the median age for a democrat was 47 and republican 51

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://www.fox6now.com/news/presidential-recount-nearly-complete-in-milwaukee-county

Despite the Trump campaign's attempts to delay it, the recounts in Wisconsin are set to end soon, Milwaukee should finish tomorrow and Dane County Sunday.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Ladies and gentlemen, we are reaching absolutely critical levels of cope:

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1331987171700510720?s=20

[n1240]

Dane: 46.7% of vote recounted, Biden loses 83 votes, Trump loses 17 Votes, Trump net of 66 votes
Milwaukee: 41.0% of vote recounted, Biden gains 10 votes, Trump loses 4 votes, Biden net of 14 votes

Dane: no change
Milwaukee: 45.8% of vote recounted, Biden gains 4 votes, Trump loses 3 votes, Biden net of 7 votes

note: vote changes are cumulative, not single day, so Trump net of 59 overall as is.

Dane: 63.9% of vote recounted, Biden loses 75 votes, Trump loses 13 Votes, Trump net of 62 votes
Milwaukee: no change

Trump net 55 overall. Milwaukee plans on certifying later today.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1332364355208351744

[DINGO Joe]

Looks like Ohio has had the lowest increase in vote so far.

[Bootes Void]

why so many votes lost in Dane, wth

[Skill and Chance]

Looks like Ohio has had the lowest increase in vote so far.

Ohio really stands out vs. the rest of the Midwest.  Trump basically held his entire 2016 margin. Even Iowa shifted somewhat toward Biden.  Wonder what makes Ohio different?

[Left Wing]

Indiana?

Yes?

It trended D this year and isn't anywhere near the same level as the others
I know, I'm an Indiana simp

[Pro-Israel, anti-Bibi]

Indiana?

Yes?

It trended D this year and isn't anywhere near the same level as the others
I know, I'm an Indiana simp

It's a meme.

And Indiana was the home of the KKK for years, it deserves a place here. But, again, it's a meme, I don't understand the Atlas obsession with arguing about every minor thing. Don't miss the forest for the trees.

[The Mikado]

People who lean left really didn't mess around this election. Howie Hawkins only got .25%. That's the worst performance for the Green Party I've ever seen. Howie Hawkins doesn't even seem that bad, he's not a clown like Stein but still, rather impressive how united the left was this election.

Worst for Green Party since 2008.

[Person Man]

Indiana?

Mississippi? Arkansas?

[Tender Branson]

Looks like Ohio has had the lowest increase in vote so far.

Of the swing states, yes.

But not among all states, Louisiana for example had a smaller turnout increase.