2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

FiveThirtyEight thinks GA is a better bet for Biden than PA

Where are you seeing this? I am seeing them saying that Biden probably wins both.

Yeah it literally doesn't say that at all lol

[wbrocks67]

Philly hasn't updated in a while, it's possible they may just dump everything together in the end.

They said 370K left to be *counted* but in terms of reported, it seems still about 500K or so

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

So re:2000, forget what we know happened, what did you really think the worst result of a Bush (or Gore if that’s how you swing) was going to be?
If you accurately describe the Bush II presidency to someone from 2000, they would call you a lunatic. It was a different world.

[Inmate Trump]

Any timeframes for anymore vote drops today?

Or is it all for tomorrow now?

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Assuming Alaska goes for Trump, the core situation right now:

PA = Biden Win
NV + AZ = Biden Win
AZ + GA/PA = Biden Win
NV + GA/PA = Biden Win
GA + Any State = Biden Win
GA + NC + PA + Any One of NV/AZ = Trump Win

[Alben Barkley]

Secret Service and FAA know who the next POTUS is:

https://twitter.com/SenWhitehouse/status/1324431035606700033?s=20

[Yeahsayyeah]

You hate to see it.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremymbarr/status/1324400156758953984?s=20

"...declared ... the winner before the votes were counted". They are so inconsistent, that it is really hillarious. If not 45 percent of your country would take their bogus as gospel, at least.

[ultraviolet]

Speaking of Philadelphia, is the Philly avatar new?

[Badger]

Are there any popular Hispanic male politicians from Pennsylvania who are fluent in both English and Spanish in the state legislature or the congress? If the results of this election are anything to go by, someone who fits that profile would immediately rocket to the top of the 2024 contenders for the Democratic nomination.

I feel like this isn’t the best way to choose a nominee

However, this oddly specific request has piqued my interest, I’m gonna look now

Jay Costa from SD-43 is hispanic and male, not sure if he’s popular or speaks Spanish though. Either way, no state legislator is winning the nomination

LOL! Costa is an old line party hack and he is Italian, not Hispanic.

Allegheny County, indeed pretty much all of Pennsylvania west of Harrisburg, has a negligible Hispanic population

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

NYT:  Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are receiving a briefing on the coronavirus pandemic and an economic briefing at a theater in Wilmington. Both tested negative for the virus today.

Oh right, that virus is still a thing.  

[ultraviolet]

Are there any popular Hispanic male politicians from Pennsylvania who are fluent in both English and Spanish in the state legislature or the congress? If the results of this election are anything to go by, someone who fits that profile would immediately rocket to the top of the 2024 contenders for the Democratic nomination.

I feel like this isn’t the best way to choose a nominee

However, this oddly specific request has piqued my interest, I’m gonna look now

Jay Costa from SD-43 is hispanic and male, not sure if he’s popular or speaks Spanish though. Either way, no state legislator is winning the nomination

LOL! Costa is an old line party hack and he is Italian, not Hispanic.

Allegheny County, indeed pretty much all of Pennsylvania west of Harrisburg, has a negligible Hispanic population

Haha whoops, doesn’t look like there are any hispanic males in the PA senate then

[Inmate Trump]

NYT:  Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are receiving a briefing on the coronavirus pandemic and an economic briefing at a theater in Wilmington. Both tested negative for the virus today.

Oh right, that virus is still a thing.  

Right??  I've actually enjoyed not thinking about the virus for a couple days.  Just a couple days, as I was exposed last week and had to test Tuesday morning.  I'm negative.

[Badger]

I am now fully convinced that the Dems need to completely divorce themselves from the woke academic language and distance themselves from activists that push it. I felt this way earlier but was reluctant to say it. It doesn't help us politically with the average minority voter who do not experience race in those terms nor with the moderate/conservative white voters. It seems to exist solely for elite spaces for white liberals and elite minorities.

One good thing about both Biden and Sanders was that they stayed away from that stuff although some others in the primaries like Gillibrand and Castro dabbled in it. We need to make sure that the same happens going forward as well. Anyone who use the term "intersectionality" or "latinx" should not be nominated for the Democrats up or down the ballot.

Biden did not lose Florida because of woke language
He lost because Trump had conviced a lot of Cuban and Venezuelan Americans that he was communist who supported socialist

you can pick the most anti woke Dem of all time and it wont matter in the end if they are still successfully branded as socialist or communist in places like Florida

remember if you can convince voters that Joe biden of all people is a socialist
than you can do that to any Dem no matter how anti woke they are....

But given that Republicans literally always seek to paint the Democratic nominee as a Castro friendly socialist toddler, right back through Hillary, Obama, Carrie, Gore, Etc. Why on Earth did it work so very well this time? Especially against a candidate like Biden who would be about as difficult to Tar as a wild-eyed radical as a candidate can be?

Myona extremely uninformed hypothesis is a combination of the growing Venezuelan vote. Their having personally dealt with Chavez and Maduro only within the last decade I'm guessing would make them far more susceptible to Republicans waving the red flag. Additionally, although I was very much under the impression that most Cuban Americans outside the true Old Guard supported Obama's attempts to reopen contact with the island through easing travel restrictions, Etc. I guess not, and they actually like Trump's reversal of such policies which made it harder to send money to and visit relatives on the island?

It might have been partially a name recognition thing, combined with a very good outreach operation in Spanish language media that Dems just had no hope of ever beating.
Trump, for better or worse, had a clear name recognition advantage, and this would be magnified in a relatively insular community like the Cubanos.

I wish it were that simple. I can't believe for a second that Joe Biden didn't have sufficient name recognition compared to say Obama in 2008 or even John Kerry in 2004 , both of whom did rather well in Miami.

Likewise, I'd love to say it was a problem Limited merely to Cuban / Venezuelan voters in Miami-Dade, but the abysmal results out of South Texas say otherwise

[Hnv1]

what's with PA reporting like a 100 votes each pulse. drop something big already

[emailking]

Does anyone remember the 2000 election?

I was too young to really care at the time.  I know there are stark and obvious differences between then and now, but was the anxiety about the same or more intense?

Well Bush was not hated anywhere near as much as he is now so the stakes were not as high from many people's perspective. A lot of people were worried that there was a crisis because "We don't have a President." It felt like it dragged forever so I'd say there was more anxiety than there is now. But in the end everyone kind of accepted the result, partisans aside. Whereas now I think there will be a lot of animosity here regardless of what happens.

[wbrocks67]

Dems have some work to do, especially with the house races - but it seems the hot takes of what they did badly this cycle may be freezing cold by the time the votes are cast and Biden possibly has a pretty substantial lead in EV and votes.

[roxas11]

I am now fully convinced that the Dems need to completely divorce themselves from the woke academic language and distance themselves from activists that push it. I felt this way earlier but was reluctant to say it. It doesn't help us politically with the average minority voter who do not experience race in those terms nor with the moderate/conservative white voters. It seems to exist solely for elite spaces for white liberals and elite minorities.

One good thing about both Biden and Sanders was that they stayed away from that stuff although some others in the primaries like Gillibrand and Castro dabbled in it. We need to make sure that the same happens going forward as well. Anyone who use the term "intersectionality" or "latinx" should not be nominated for the Democrats up or down the ballot.

Biden did not lose Florida because of woke language
He lost because Trump had conviced a lot of Cuban and Venezuelan Americans that he was communist who supported socialist

you can pick the most anti woke Dem of all time and it wont matter in the end if they are still successfully branded as socialist or communist in places like Florida

remember if you can convince voters that Joe biden of all people is a socialist
than you can do that to any Dem no matter how anti woke they are....

But given that Republicans literally always seek to paint the Democratic nominee as a Castro friendly socialist toddler, right back through Hillary, Obama, Carrie, Gore, Etc. Why on Earth did it work so very well this time? Especially against a candidate like Biden who would be about as difficult to Tar as a wild-eyed radical as a candidate can be?

Myona extremely uninformed hypothesis is a combination of the growing Venezuelan vote. Their having personally dealt with Chavez and Maduro only within the last decade I'm guessing would make them far more susceptible to Republicans waving the red flag. Additionally, although I was very much under the impression that most Cuban Americans outside the true Old Guard supported Obama's attempts to reopen contact with the island through easing travel restrictions, Etc. I guess not, and they actually like Trump's reversal of such policies which made it harder to send money to and visit relatives on the island?

It might have been partially a name recognition thing, combined with a very good outreach operation in Spanish language media that Dems just had no hope of ever beating.
Trump, for better or worse, had a clear name recognition advantage, and this would be magnified in a relatively insular community like the Cubanos.

I wish it were that simple. I can't believe for a second that Joe Biden didn't have sufficient name recognition compared to say Obama in 2008 or even John Kerry in 2004 , both of whom did rather well in Miami.

Likewise, I'd love to say it was a problem Limited merely to Cuban / Venezuelan voters in Miami-Dade, but the abysmal results out of South Texas say otherwise

[/b]

but overall didnt Biden do way better than Hillary in TX

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PA SoS says 500K left to count. There.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Prediction from an old election junkie: although this may seem agonizingly slow now, in a few months you'll look back on this time and miss it.

[Bootes Void]

Did Pennsylvania count 200000 votes and not report them?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I am now fully convinced that the Dems need to completely divorce themselves from the woke academic language and distance themselves from activists that push it. I felt this way earlier but was reluctant to say it. It doesn't help us politically with the average minority voter who do not experience race in those terms nor with the moderate/conservative white voters. It seems to exist solely for elite spaces for white liberals and elite minorities.

One good thing about both Biden and Sanders was that they stayed away from that stuff although some others in the primaries like Gillibrand and Castro dabbled in it. We need to make sure that the same happens going forward as well. Anyone who use the term "intersectionality" or "latinx" should not be nominated for the Democrats up or down the ballot.

Biden did not lose Florida because of woke language
He lost because Trump had conviced a lot of Cuban and Venezuelan Americans that he was communist who supported socialist

you can pick the most anti woke Dem of all time and it wont matter in the end if they are still successfully branded as socialist or communist in places like Florida

remember if you can convince voters that Joe biden of all people is a socialist
than you can do that to any Dem no matter how anti woke they are....

But given that Republicans literally always seek to paint the Democratic nominee as a Castro friendly socialist toddler, right back through Hillary, Obama, Carrie, Gore, Etc. Why on Earth did it work so very well this time? Especially against a candidate like Biden who would be about as difficult to Tar as a wild-eyed radical as a candidate can be?

Myona extremely uninformed hypothesis is a combination of the growing Venezuelan vote. Their having personally dealt with Chavez and Maduro only within the last decade I'm guessing would make them far more susceptible to Republicans waving the red flag. Additionally, although I was very much under the impression that most Cuban Americans outside the true Old Guard supported Obama's attempts to reopen contact with the island through easing travel restrictions, Etc. I guess not, and they actually like Trump's reversal of such policies which made it harder to send money to and visit relatives on the island?

It might have been partially a name recognition thing, combined with a very good outreach operation in Spanish language media that Dems just had no hope of ever beating.
Trump, for better or worse, had a clear name recognition advantage, and this would be magnified in a relatively insular community like the Cubanos.

I wish it were that simple. I can't believe for a second that Joe Biden didn't have sufficient name recognition compared to say Obama in 2008 or even John Kerry in 2004 , both of whom did rather well in Miami.

Likewise, I'd love to say it was a problem Limited merely to Cuban / Venezuelan voters in Miami-Dade, but the abysmal results out of South Texas say otherwise

The weird thing about Miami is the swing really does seem concentrated in the Cuban neighborhoods. So far as I can tell, Biden did fine in Kendall/South Miami/Homestead.

[It’s so Joever]

I am now fully convinced that the Dems need to completely divorce themselves from the woke academic language and distance themselves from activists that push it. I felt this way earlier but was reluctant to say it. It doesn't help us politically with the average minority voter who do not experience race in those terms nor with the moderate/conservative white voters. It seems to exist solely for elite spaces for white liberals and elite minorities.

One good thing about both Biden and Sanders was that they stayed away from that stuff although some others in the primaries like Gillibrand and Castro dabbled in it. We need to make sure that the same happens going forward as well. Anyone who use the term "intersectionality" or "latinx" should not be nominated for the Democrats up or down the ballot.

Biden did not lose Florida because of woke language
He lost because Trump had conviced a lot of Cuban and Venezuelan Americans that he was communist who supported socialist

you can pick the most anti woke Dem of all time and it wont matter in the end if they are still successfully branded as socialist or communist in places like Florida

remember if you can convince voters that Joe biden of all people is a socialist
than you can do that to any Dem no matter how anti woke they are....

But given that Republicans literally always seek to paint the Democratic nominee as a Castro friendly socialist toddler, right back through Hillary, Obama, Carrie, Gore, Etc. Why on Earth did it work so very well this time? Especially against a candidate like Biden who would be about as difficult to Tar as a wild-eyed radical as a candidate can be?

Myona extremely uninformed hypothesis is a combination of the growing Venezuelan vote. Their having personally dealt with Chavez and Maduro only within the last decade I'm guessing would make them far more susceptible to Republicans waving the red flag. Additionally, although I was very much under the impression that most Cuban Americans outside the true Old Guard supported Obama's attempts to reopen contact with the island through easing travel restrictions, Etc. I guess not, and they actually like Trump's reversal of such policies which made it harder to send money to and visit relatives on the island?

It might have been partially a name recognition thing, combined with a very good outreach operation in Spanish language media that Dems just had no hope of ever beating.
Trump, for better or worse, had a clear name recognition advantage, and this would be magnified in a relatively insular community like the Cubanos.

I wish it were that simple. I can't believe for a second that Joe Biden didn't have sufficient name recognition compared to say Obama in 2008 or even John Kerry in 2004 , both of whom did rather well in Miami.

Likewise, I'd love to say it was a problem Limited merely to Cuban / Venezuelan voters in Miami-Dade, but the abysmal results out of South Texas say otherwise

[/b]

but overall didnt Biden do way better than Hillary in TX

The Dallas and Austin suburbs pulled through.

[brucejoel99]

Secret Service and FAA know who the next POTUS is:

https://twitter.com/SenWhitehouse/status/1324431035606700033?s=20

President-elect Joe Biden. God, I love that.

[MillennialModerate]

Georgia margin down to 12,825.

These guys are slow at counting

They’re delaying the invevitable but if you just listened to me it wouldn’t be so difficult.

You mean like how you listened to literally all of Atlas when we gave you receipts over & over & over again as to how JKIII pales in comparison to (King) Markey? Or how you've been listening to us right now as to how, y'know, simple math re: GA ballots & the composition thereof works?

K.

Low blow. I can’t help the latte liberal crowd is short a few brain cells

[Non Swing Voter]

Sen. Bob Casey: No future Republican candidate (president, governor) will ever be as effective in PA as Donald Trump

He's right.  Trump spoke to rural whites in places like that in a way others like Ted Cruz will never relate.  That's what's scary for the GOP post Trump.  Without him on the ballot they can't rely on states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.  The blue wall might be back but bigger than ever with Colorado + Nevada + Arizona + Virginia + Georgia.