Does Miami-Dade swing to the right? (Part 3!)

[Skye]

So, over a year ago I decided to ask this question. The purpose was to ask first before election season began, then after the Dem nominee had emerged, and finally before the election.

Here's the first thread, from June 2019. Results were No 50.8-Yes 49.2: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=323004.0

Here's the second thread, from April 2020. Results were No 58.1-Yes 41.9: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=368331.0

So, what about now? Does Trump get a better margin than the -29% one he got against Clinton? A reminder that "swing" refers to the change in margin between major party candidates.

Here are the past few presidential elections in comparison:



Aditionally, in 2018 the results were:

Gov: 59.9-39 Gillum
Sen: 60.6-39.4 Nelson

Cast your votes!

[Adam Griffin]

Probably. White Cuban olds are the worst.

[lfromnj]

So, over a year ago I decided to ask this question. The purpose was to ask first before election season began, then after the Dem nominee had emerged, and finally before the election.

Here's the first thread, from June 2019. Results were No 50.8-Yes 49.2: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=323004.0

Here's the second thread, from April 2020. Results were No 58.1-Yes 41.9: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=368331.0

So, what about now? Does Trump get a better margin than the -29% one he got against Clinton? A reminder that "swing" refers to the change in margin between major party candidates.

Here are the past few presidential elections in comparison:



Aditionally, in 2018 the results were:

Gov: 59.9-39 Gillum
Sen: 60.6-39.4 Nelson

Cast your votes!

One thing is Gillum still did do better than Crist in MD county.

I think it swings right though, Cubans barely voted for Trump in 2016 while this year they seem more excited and going back to nearly 2018 numbers for Trump.

[Bootes Void]

Yes it will be 61 to 62 for Biden and 36- 38 for Trump. My guess is 62-37 final result in Miami-Dade

[Skye]

Yes it will be 61 to 62 for Biden and 36- 38 for Trump. My guess is 62-37 final result in Miami-Dade

Mine as well.

[vitoNova]

Probably.

With the advent of Obama and his Post-Racial America, it was probably a foregone conclusion amongst "white" (lol) Cubans that the US was well on its way to normalizing relations with Cuba, and there was nothing they could really do about it.   Thus depressing their turnout.

Once a Trump came along to fuel the fire, it was back to bad old days.  

NO other Republican besides Trump would have undone Obama's normalization of relations with Coobah.

[KaiserDave]

I think Biden will get around Gillum's number

[Skye]

NO other Republican besides Trump would have undone Obama's normalization of relations with Coobah.

Rubio exists lol.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yes.

[S019ian Liberal]

Can't say, honestly.

[Woody]

It's guaranteed.

[Skill and Chance]

Almost surely yes.  Whether Biden can outperform Gillum is what really matters for statewide. 

[Skye]

This aged well.