Does Miami-Dade swing to the right in 2020?

[Skye]

Miami-Dade county has become a Democratic party stronghold in recent elections. However, Trump's margin of defeat (almost 30 points) was the worst performance for a GOP presidential candidate in forever. Can he do better in 2020?

I know it's early, but I'll ask this question 3 times: Now, when the race for the Democratic nomination is beginning with the debates, then after the Democrats get their nominee, and finally, a few days before the election. It'll be interesting to see the results.

[Dr. Arch]

Plenty of room to keep falling

[libertpaulian]

If Bernie is the nominee?  Absolutely.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Bernie is the nominee?  Absolutely.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Maybe a tad, but not significantly.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't think Trump can just cry socialism and all the sudden Cubans who voted for Hillary are in Trump's camp. This is partly a generational shift and a long term problem for the Republicans in Florida. So while it could get slightly more Republican in 2020, I doubt it's by a substantial margin or by a margin that makes or breaks the state at large.

[Ilhan Apologist]

Yes. Nelson and Gillum only carried it by 20 points.

[libertpaulian]

I don't think Trump can just cry socialism and all the sudden Cubans who voted for Hillary are in Trump's camp. This is partly a generational shift and a long term problem for the Republicans in Florida. So while it could get slightly more Republican in 2020, I doubt it's by a substantial margin or by a margin that makes or breaks the state at large.

But it COULD matter in a razor-thin race, AKA Gillum and Nelson 2018.

[lfromnj]

I don't think Trump can just cry socialism and all the sudden Cubans who voted for Hillary are in Trump's camp. This is partly a generational shift and a long term problem for the Republicans in Florida. So while it could get slightly more Republican in 2020, I doubt it's by a substantial margin or by a margin that makes or breaks the state at large.

Yeah people think because they bounced back in 2018 from 2016 that its gonna swing R in 2020.

Reminder that I am pretty sure Obama either lost or only narrowly won FL 27th in 2008 which is now Clinton +20 after going to around Obama +8 in 2012 I think?

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't think Trump can just cry socialism and all the sudden Cubans who voted for Hillary are in Trump's camp. This is partly a generational shift and a long term problem for the Republicans in Florida. So while it could get slightly more Republican in 2020, I doubt it's by a substantial margin or by a margin that makes or breaks the state at large.

But it COULD matter in a razor-thin race, AKA Gillum and Nelson 2018.

Yes, it mattered in those, but if Trump is doing better in Miami-Dade than he did in 2016, it's unlikely the rest of the state swings that much left to make up the difference.

[GP270watch]

 Miami is 70% Latino and Cubans are still the largest group but many Latinos from South America, Central America, and the Caribbean are immigrating there. They're not Republican voters like older Cubans and many younger Cubans are voting Democrat at higher percentages than their parents and grandparents, unless they're cliqued in politically.

[Frenchrepublican]

If the election was held today, I would say yes. We are not going back to 2004 levels but it's clear that in 2016 a relatively large share of hispanic republicans refused to back Trump because they saw him as a ''racist'', some polls and 2018 elections results tend to show that these voters are coming back home. The fact that Trump is fairly popular among hispanics (40 to 45% approval) in Florida and the fact that DeSantis won 311k votes in Dade county (nearly as much than Trump in 2016) are clear elements that Trump has rebounded with Cuban voters.

As of now I think that Trump would win 37/38% of the vote in Miami Dade       

[pbrower2a]

I don't think Trump can just cry socialism and all the sudden Cubans who voted for Hillary are in Trump's camp. This is partly a generational shift and a long term problem for the Republicans in Florida. So while it could get slightly more Republican in 2020, I doubt it's by a substantial margin or by a margin that makes or breaks the state at large.

Yeah people think because they bounced back in 2018 from 2016 that its gonna swing R in 2020.

Reminder that I am pretty sure Obama either lost or only narrowly won FL 27th in 2008 which is now Clinton +20 after going to around Obama +8 in 2012 I think?

More Latin-Americans in the electorate (recent Cuban immigrants are not right-wing, in contrast to those who fled Castro's revolution) means more Democratic votes.

The 2018 election suggests that voters are already taking things out on Donald Trump.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Probably, by a slim margin. Democrats will make up for it elsewhere in the state though.

[TDAS04]

It could, but no guarantee.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Not a chance in hell

[Politician]

Yes, especially if Sanders is the nominee.

For those saying "Miami-Dade can't POSSIBLY swing right because it swung left in the past 4 elections" what makes you so confident? It isn't even a "downballot effect" as Gillum did barely better than Crist in Miami-Dade.

[Gracile]

It will probably move more Republican than the nation, at least.

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably, by a slim margin. Democrats will make up for it elsewhere in the state though.

I wouldn't be so sure about that

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

What percent of Latinos in FL are Cuban?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Knowing Florida, probably.

[GP270watch]

What percent of Latinos in FL are Cuban?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hispanics_and_Latinos_in_Florida

 30% of Florida's Latino population is Cuban according to this. They also turnout at a high rate and have a high level of citizenship. Puerto Ricans are the only group with a higher level(they're U.S. Citizens) but their voter turnout is lower if I remember correctly.
 The other Latino groups still have a high level of non-citizens and a lower voter participation rate for those who are.

[SN2903]

A little bit

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is going GOP

[TheRealRight]

It will move more right, but the county as a whole will not be red for at least a few more election cycles.