PA - ABC/WaPo: Biden +7

[philly09]

PA polls over the last month (excluding trash like Trafalgar and Rasmussen) show Biden leading anywhere from 4-7.

I think Biden +6 is a likely result here, which probably represents a uniform swing by about that margin in the rust belt.

Trump takes Iowa by 4, Ohio by 2, and loses PA, MI, WI by 6 and 7.

I've been saying Biden by 5 since Labor Day. No reason to hedge.

[Hammy]

Not sure what to make of how accurate these are, I don't see any of their polls for either state from 2016/18.

[compucomp]

There's been a massive GOTV operation in Philly. Debra Messing was in the suburbs, her second visit to this area. Don't let anybody tell you we're slacking.

Also Joe is spending the last two days of the campaign in PA. I think this is a good strategy since at least half of PA's vote will be election day in person and the absentee ballots are not enough.

[Buzz]

“High Quality” PA pollsters in 2016

YouGov: Clinton +8
NYT/Siena: Clinton +7
Quinnipiac: Clinton +6 (at 50)
F&M: Clinton +11 (at 49)
CNN: Clinton +5 (over 50)


“Low Quality” PA pollsters in 2016:
Trafalgar: Trump +1
Susquehanna: Clinton +2
Harper: Tie
Gravis: Clinton +2


Tuesday should be fascinating!

[philly09]

Not sure what to make of how accurate these are, I don't see any of their polls for either state from 2016/18.

F&M and Muhelnberg pretty much nailed Casey's win

[swf541]

“High Quality” PA pollsters in 2016

YouGov: Clinton +8
NYT/Siena: Clinton +7
Quinnipiac: Clinton +6 (at 50)
F&M: Clinton +11 (at 49)
CNN: Clinton +5 (over 50)


“Low Quality” PA pollsters in 2016:
Trafalgar: Trump +1
Susquehanna: Clinton +2
Harper: Tie
Gravis: Clinton +2


Tuesday should be fascinating!

As much as I dislike Susequenhanna, Harper and Gravis it is still an insult to them to lump them in with Trafalgar

Thatd be like lumping in McLaughlin with them

[BudgieForce]

“High Quality” PA pollsters in 2016

YouGov: Clinton +8
NYT/Siena: Clinton +7
Quinnipiac: Clinton +6 (at 50)
F&M: Clinton +11 (at 49)
CNN: Clinton +5 (over 50)


“Low Quality” PA pollsters in 2016:
Trafalgar: Trump +1
Susquehanna: Clinton +2
Harper: Tie
Gravis: Clinton +2


Tuesday should be fascinating!

And Clinton wasn't at 50% in any of them.

[wbrocks67]

49-45 for RV

What is with ABC/Wapo and their state polls and these wild RV/LV shifts?

[EJ24]

“High Quality” PA pollsters in 2016

YouGov: Clinton +8
NYT/Siena: Clinton +7
Quinnipiac: Clinton +6 (at 50)
F&M: Clinton +11 (at 49)
CNN: Clinton +5 (over 50)


“Low Quality” PA pollsters in 2016:
Trafalgar: Trump +1
Susquehanna: Clinton +2
Harper: Tie
Gravis: Clinton +2


Tuesday should be fascinating!

Well, I guess that's it guys. Election over. Trumpslide. You heard it here first.

[Buzz]

“High Quality” PA pollsters in 2016

YouGov: Clinton +8
NYT/Siena: Clinton +7
Quinnipiac: Clinton +6 (at 50)
F&M: Clinton +11 (at 49)
CNN: Clinton +5 (over 50)


“Low Quality” PA pollsters in 2016:
Trafalgar: Trump +1
Susquehanna: Clinton +2
Harper: Tie
Gravis: Clinton +2


Tuesday should be fascinating!

And Clinton wasn't at 50% in any of them.

Did you not read any of my post?  Yes she was!

[philly09]

“High Quality” PA pollsters in 2016

YouGov: Clinton +8
NYT/Siena: Clinton +7
Quinnipiac: Clinton +6 (at 50)
F&M: Clinton +11 (at 49)
CNN: Clinton +5 (over 50)


“Low Quality” PA pollsters in 2016:
Trafalgar: Trump +1
Susquehanna: Clinton +2
Harper: Tie
Gravis: Clinton +2


Tuesday should be fascinating!

And Clinton wasn't at 50% in any of them.

I know many a hipster/yuppie who sat it out or went with Stein/Johnson/Bernie write in.  That's not happening this year.

[wbrocks67]

The polling average (final) in 2016 was Clinton 46-Trump 42 per 538. So stop any of this ridiculous 2016 comparison.

[Rand]

Somebody break the news to SirWoodbury...

...Biden still leads the RCP average in Florida.

[EJ24]

Let Buzz keep coping with 2016 and pretending that's the only election in American history.

His quotes are gonna be lots of fun after Tuesday.

[compucomp]

“High Quality” PA pollsters in 2016

YouGov: Clinton +8
NYT/Siena: Clinton +7
Quinnipiac: Clinton +6 (at 50)
F&M: Clinton +11 (at 49)
CNN: Clinton +5 (over 50)


“Low Quality” PA pollsters in 2016:
Trafalgar: Trump +1
Susquehanna: Clinton +2
Harper: Tie
Gravis: Clinton +2


Tuesday should be fascinating!

Your figures are inaccurate for some of the "high quality polls". From the link below, these are the last polls of PA as logged by 538:

YouGov: Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 4
Quinnipiac: Clinton 48, Trump 43, Johnson 2
CNN: Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 4

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

[EJ24]

“High Quality” PA pollsters in 2016

YouGov: Clinton +8
NYT/Siena: Clinton +7
Quinnipiac: Clinton +6 (at 50)
F&M: Clinton +11 (at 49)
CNN: Clinton +5 (over 50)


“Low Quality” PA pollsters in 2016:
Trafalgar: Trump +1
Susquehanna: Clinton +2
Harper: Tie
Gravis: Clinton +2


Tuesday should be fascinating!

Your figures are inaccurate for some of the "high quality polls". From the link below, these are the last polls of PA as logged by 538:

YouGov: Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 4
Quinnipiac: Clinton 48, Trump 43, Johnson 2
CNN: Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 4

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

Republicans are serial liars who would sell their own mother, who would've thought?

[Bootes Void]

“High Quality” PA pollsters in 2016

YouGov: Clinton +8
NYT/Siena: Clinton +7
Quinnipiac: Clinton +6 (at 50)
F&M: Clinton +11 (at 49)
CNN: Clinton +5 (over 50)


“Low Quality” PA pollsters in 2016:
Trafalgar: Trump +1
Susquehanna: Clinton +2
Harper: Tie
Gravis: Clinton +2


Tuesday should be fascinating!

Your figures are inaccurate for some of the "high quality polls". From the link below, these are the last polls of PA as logged by 538:

YouGov: Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 4
Quinnipiac: Clinton 48, Trump 43, Johnson 2
CNN: Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 4

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

Being at 51 is very crucial

[wbrocks67]

Also people are conveniently forgetting that the polls were accurate in PA in 2018.. actually *underestimated* Casey...

[philly09]

Seriously, you can find the polls on this website. Hillary did not break 50% in any poll since the Oct 03 Monmouth Poll.

[Buzz]

“High Quality” PA pollsters in 2016

YouGov: Clinton +8
NYT/Siena: Clinton +7
Quinnipiac: Clinton +6 (at 50)
F&M: Clinton +11 (at 49)
CNN: Clinton +5 (over 50)


“Low Quality” PA pollsters in 2016:
Trafalgar: Trump +1
Susquehanna: Clinton +2
Harper: Tie
Gravis: Clinton +2


Tuesday should be fascinating!

Your figures are inaccurate for some of the "high quality polls". From the link below, these are the last polls of PA as logged by 538:

YouGov: Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 4
Quinnipiac: Clinton 48, Trump 43, Johnson 2
CNN: Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 4

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

Republicans are serial liars who would sell their own mother, who would've thought?

Not lying.  Those are the H2H matchups per RCP

[swf541]

“High Quality” PA pollsters in 2016

YouGov: Clinton +8
NYT/Siena: Clinton +7
Quinnipiac: Clinton +6 (at 50)
F&M: Clinton +11 (at 49)
CNN: Clinton +5 (over 50)


“Low Quality” PA pollsters in 2016:
Trafalgar: Trump +1
Susquehanna: Clinton +2
Harper: Tie
Gravis: Clinton +2


Tuesday should be fascinating!

Your figures are inaccurate for some of the "high quality polls". From the link below, these are the last polls of PA as logged by 538:

YouGov: Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 4
Quinnipiac: Clinton 48, Trump 43, Johnson 2
CNN: Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 4

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

Republicans are serial liars who would sell their own mother, who would've thought?

Not lying.  Those are the H2H matchups per RCP

Then as others have mentioned your sourcing is wrong

[Buzz]

“High Quality” PA pollsters in 2016

YouGov: Clinton +8
NYT/Siena: Clinton +7
Quinnipiac: Clinton +6 (at 50)
F&M: Clinton +11 (at 49)
CNN: Clinton +5 (over 50)


“Low Quality” PA pollsters in 2016:
Trafalgar: Trump +1
Susquehanna: Clinton +2
Harper: Tie
Gravis: Clinton +2


Tuesday should be fascinating!

Your figures are inaccurate for some of the "high quality polls". From the link below, these are the last polls of PA as logged by 538:

YouGov: Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 4
Quinnipiac: Clinton 48, Trump 43, Johnson 2
CNN: Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 4

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

Republicans are serial liars who would sell their own mother, who would've thought?

Not lying.  Those are the H2H matchups per RCP

Then as others have mentioned your sourcing is wrong

No.  H2H those were the poll #’s

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

“High Quality” PA pollsters in 2016

YouGov: Clinton +8
NYT/Siena: Clinton +7
Quinnipiac: Clinton +6 (at 50)
F&M: Clinton +11 (at 49)
CNN: Clinton +5 (over 50)


“Low Quality” PA pollsters in 2016:
Trafalgar: Trump +1
Susquehanna: Clinton +2
Harper: Tie
Gravis: Clinton +2


Tuesday should be fascinating!

Your figures are inaccurate for some of the "high quality polls". From the link below, these are the last polls of PA as logged by 538:

YouGov: Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 4
Quinnipiac: Clinton 48, Trump 43, Johnson 2
CNN: Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 4

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

Republicans are serial liars who would sell their own mother, who would've thought?

Not lying.  Those are the H2H matchups per RCP

Then as others have mentioned your sourcing is wrong

No.  H2H those were the poll #’s

The 3rd party vote in 2016 was much more significant than it will be this year. You can't just ignore those polls.

[philly09]

Right here.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?fips=42

[politicallefty]

If you can't tell the difference between a poll that has both major candidates close together in the 43-48 range versus those that have a candidate with a larger lead and 49-50%+, you really shouldn't be analyzing polls. We should all know by now that undecideds broke strongly for the challenging party (Trump) in 2016 in the last week of the election.