IA-Selzer: Trump +7
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Author Topic: IA-Selzer: Trump +7  (Read 36174 times)
kireev
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« Reply #50 on: October 31, 2020, 06:38:02 PM »
Biden is leading 55% to 32% among those who have already voted. Who did the remaining 13% vote for?
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new_patomic
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« Reply #51 on: October 31, 2020, 06:38:07 PM »
At the very least, props to them for not herding their numbers.
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Asta
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« Reply #52 on: October 31, 2020, 06:38:09 PM »
I guess Iowa is going the way of Missouri
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GALeftist
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« Reply #53 on: October 31, 2020, 06:38:14 PM »
I want to perish.

That said, no swing from 2016? I'm beginning to become a little more skeptical of Selzer. I'm willing to acknowledge that Iowa is zooming right long term, but I would be shocked if Trump's margin wasn't much tighter at least. I could be wrong, though, I suppose.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #54 on: October 31, 2020, 06:38:18 PM »
Early Iowan polling is always fools gold for Democrats.
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morgieb
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« Reply #55 on: October 31, 2020, 06:38:19 PM »
He does need surrounding states though. If Trump really is up by 7 in Iowa that isn't great news for Biden in states like Wisconsin and Minnesota.
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Horus
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« Reply #56 on: October 31, 2020, 06:38:27 PM »
Quote from: Optimistic Democrat on October 31, 2020, 06:36:01 PM
I see we have gone into full meltdown mode. Over one poll. In a small state that won’t decide the election.

That one small state and this one poll tells us a lot about the state of the upper midwest.
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Ljube
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« Reply #57 on: October 31, 2020, 06:38:30 PM »
Quote from: Splash on October 31, 2020, 06:37:17 PM
Now watch some of the self-anointed election experts extrapolate this one poll to make the argument that Trump is going to win the election.

Oh wait - it's already happening. Never change, Atlas

I extrapolated the same poll in 2016 and got Trump winning Michigan and Pennsylvania.
What is your point?
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #58 on: October 31, 2020, 06:38:42 PM »
Quote from: DrScholl on October 31, 2020, 06:37:05 PM
I'm seriously convinced that this is an outlier now. Trump hasn't been up that much in any poll since March and at minimum Biden has been hitting 46% in recent polling. Selzer is in for a miss this year.

This is the gold standard of polling, and IA polls always overestimate Democrats.
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swf541
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« Reply #59 on: October 31, 2020, 06:38:51 PM »
Missouri is not voting to the right of Iowa lmfao
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jamestroll
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« Reply #60 on: October 31, 2020, 06:38:58 PM »
Quote from: Monstro Still Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia on October 31, 2020, 06:35:19 PM
I take it this page is gonna reach 6 pages by Midnight EST?


I felt Ohio was likelier to flip than Iowa anyway so I don't get the hysteria.

Ohio has suburbs.
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n1240
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« Reply #61 on: October 31, 2020, 06:39:18 PM »
The number of good high quality polls for Biden over the past month is well over 30 and the number of good high quality polls for Trump over the past month is 1 (this one).
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
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« Reply #62 on: October 31, 2020, 06:39:48 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 31, 2020, 06:31:31 PM
Wow. Trump is going to win the election.
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VAR
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« Reply #63 on: October 31, 2020, 06:39:56 PM »
Sticking with my Trump +2-3, Ernst +1-2 prediction.

Trump’s lead is outside the margin of error, though.
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swf541
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« Reply #64 on: October 31, 2020, 06:40:08 PM »

This is the perfect encapsulation of this thread
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Ljube
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« Reply #65 on: October 31, 2020, 06:40:11 PM »
Quote from: n1240 on October 31, 2020, 06:39:18 PM
The number of good high quality polls for Biden over the past month is well over 30 and the number of good high quality polls for Trump over the past month is 1 (this one).

Same as in 2016.
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #66 on: October 31, 2020, 06:40:15 PM »

All our favorite people
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It's Perro Sanxe wot won it
Mimoha
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« Reply #67 on: October 31, 2020, 06:40:41 PM »
Btw, how stupid are the people of Iowa?
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #68 on: October 31, 2020, 06:40:48 PM »
Quote from: Clinton/Newsom/Straight Ticket D 2018 voter for Mike Garcia on October 31, 2020, 06:34:02 PM
I can buy this and still buy a Biden landslide nationally, it would just mean 2016 in Iowa wasn't a fluke and rural voters are seriously going to become problems for Democrats.

lol I and INDYREP have been trying to tell this entire forum this for like 5 months...

Biden won't be winning MI/WI/PA by more than 5.

The swing in this election is coming from the SUNBELT, not the RUSTBELT.
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Buzz
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« Reply #69 on: October 31, 2020, 06:40:53 PM »
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indietraveler
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« Reply #70 on: October 31, 2020, 06:41:14 PM »
If this poll is to be believed then Biden made a good choice spending his last week in the midwest. Of note in this poll, Biden is slightly up in the suburbs here, which are less diverse than other suburban areas.
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« Reply #71 on: October 31, 2020, 06:41:18 PM »
You on Election Night?
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #72 on: October 31, 2020, 06:41:21 PM »
Quote from: TheLaRocca on October 31, 2020, 06:40:48 PM
Quote from: Clinton/Newsom/Straight Ticket D 2018 voter for Mike Garcia on October 31, 2020, 06:34:02 PM
I can buy this and still buy a Biden landslide nationally, it would just mean 2016 in Iowa wasn't a fluke and rural voters are seriously going to become problems for Democrats.

lol I and INDYREP have been trying to tell this entire forum this for like 5 months...

Biden won't be winning MI/WI/PA by more than 5.

The swing in this election is coming from the SUNBELT, not the RUSTBELT.

Ahem
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swf541
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« Reply #73 on: October 31, 2020, 06:41:31 PM »
Quote from: TheLaRocca on October 31, 2020, 06:40:48 PM
Quote from: Clinton/Newsom/Straight Ticket D 2018 voter for Mike Garcia on October 31, 2020, 06:34:02 PM
I can buy this and still buy a Biden landslide nationally, it would just mean 2016 in Iowa wasn't a fluke and rural voters are seriously going to become problems for Democrats.

lol I and INDYREP have been trying to tell this entire forum this for like 5 months...

Biden won't be winning MI/WI/PA by more than 5.

The swing in this election is coming from the SUNBELT, not the RUSTBELT.

This is an equally poor post, MI+WI+PA are fundamentally different from Iowa......

There is very little PA+IA have in common
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #74 on: October 31, 2020, 06:41:55 PM »

This forum thought for months that Biden was winning Michigan by 15%.

Lmfao.
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