FL (NBC/Marist): Biden +4

[Ferguson97]

I think Biden wins Florida at this point. But NC goes for Trump.

If anything, I would bet on the opposite.

[TheLaRocca]

I think Biden wins Florida at this point. But NC goes for Trump.

If anything, I would bet on the opposite.

Why

FL was more
Democrat in 2016 even though this forum seems
To want to forget that.

NC has more rural vote for trump to improve in!

[South Dakota Democrat]

Biden wins Florida 52-47, that's my prediction.

Hope so.  That would lead to a pretty early call.

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

Doesn't weight by education,, in the trash it goes

Marist weighs be income for what its worth.

Trump’s base is low education high income though

Trump's base is low education, low income. Trump was the first Republican ever to do better with low income white voters than high income white voters.

[Ferguson97]

Doesn't weight by education,, in the trash it goes

Marist weighs be income for what its worth.

Trump’s base is low education high income though

Trump's base is low education, low income. Trump was the first Republican ever to do better with low income white voters than high income white voters.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/opinion/trump-white-voters.html

[Pericles]

Because I'm sure somebody will bring it up:  yes, NBC/Marist had both Nelson and Gillum up by four during its last poll of FL-SEN and FL-GOV in 2018 (late October-early November).  

Marist had Hillary up by a point at this point in 2016:  45-44-5.  

Well hopefully Florida doesn't have poorly designed ballots again.

[TheLaRocca]

Doesn't weight by education,, in the trash it goes

Marist weighs be income for what its worth.

Trump’s base is low education high income though

Trump's base is low education, low income. Trump was the first Republican ever to do better with low income white voters than high income white voters.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/opinion/trump-white-voters.html

You guys miss the biggest point....that’s the case with every republican....Bush, Kerry, and Gore.

Trumps base is much more lower income and less affluent then Bush.

[President Johnson]

Biden wins Florida 52-47, that's my prediction.

I doubt anyone wins it by more than two. Trump will make inroads in the Cuban community, but these gains will be at least neutralized by Biden improving with white seniors. My prediction is Biden by about 1.5%, narrowly clearing 50%, while Trump is at about 48.5%.

[Buzz]

Marist once again proves to be completely incompetent pollster.  A+ material for Nate Silver though!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Marist once again proves to be completely incompetent pollster.  A+ material for Nate Silver though!

I wonder if there will be any A+ pollsters after this dumpster fire. The poor guy's model is getting blasted when it had to rely almost solely on bad data.

[2016]

Marist once again proves to be completely incompetent pollster.  A+ material for Nate Silver though!

I wonder if there will be any A+ pollsters after this dumpster fire. The poor guy's model is getting blasted when it had to rely almost solely on bad data.

Nate Silver shouldn't do a Model at all! Clearly once again Pollsters did not capture the "Shy Trump Vote" which was there again. Pollsters weren't even close to predict PA, MI, WI! Trump won Ohio by 6 Points, no one captured it.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Marist once again proves to be completely incompetent pollster.  A+ material for Nate Silver though!

I wonder if there will be any A+ pollsters after this dumpster fire. The poor guy's model is getting blasted when it had to rely almost solely on bad data.

Nate Silver shouldn't do a Model at all! Clearly once again Pollsters did not capture the "Shy Trump Vote" which was there again. Pollsters weren't even close to predict PA, MI, WI! Trump won Ohio by 6 Points, no one captured it.

A few pollsters seem to come out of this better than others (Selzer, maybe Marquette, arguably Siena/NYT in certain states). My guess is that he's going to have to downgrade pretty much all of them, weigh in other metrics more and give the best of the crop an even heavier weight. CNAlysis factored in polls and still managed to get ~96% of state legislative races right this time (the ones called so far, at least).