FL (NBC/Marist): Biden +4
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  FL (NBC/Marist): Biden +4		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: FL (NBC/Marist): Biden +4  (Read 3308 times)
Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
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« on: October 29, 2020, 05:21:18 AM »
Biden 51  Trump 47

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/biden-takes-slight-lead-in-florida-over-trump-in-final-nbc-news-marist-poll/2313534/
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philly09
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2020, 05:23:36 AM »
I'll take it.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2020, 05:24:22 AM »
I really hope this is the end result.

(But I'm definitely not sure about it.)
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philly09
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2020, 05:27:45 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 29, 2020, 05:24:22 AM
I really hope this is the end result.

(But I'm definitely not sure about it.)

I still say Biden replicates Obama's 2012 FL win. I'd like him to match Hillary's numbers in Miamii-Dade, but that's unlikely.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2020, 05:28:02 AM »
What a nice poll to start the day.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2020, 05:28:31 AM »
Marist had Trump winning in Sept too
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2020, 05:30:33 AM »
Because I'm sure somebody will bring it up:  yes, NBC/Marist had both Nelson and Gillum up by four during its last poll of FL-SEN and FL-GOV in 2018 (late October-early November).  

Marist had Hillary up by a point at this point in 2016:  45-44-5.  
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cvparty
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2020, 05:32:48 AM »
trump winning hispanics 52-46...ok
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philly09
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2020, 05:36:18 AM »

Cubans?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2020, 05:37:38 AM »
What a nice poll to go to sleep to!

Still cross-tabs are really wonky  (Trump leading among Latinos), etc...

FL "Tough State to Poll", etc...

Biden way above among Seniors, etc...

Throw it into the averages, despite being a decent quality polling outfit whose results are not necessarily out of whack with other results we have seen over the past couple Months from legit outfits
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2020, 05:39:51 AM »

LMAO didnt they have Trump wining Hispanics in Sept too
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2020, 05:40:05 AM »
If I recall correctly, Marist doesn't weight on education, but, anyway, a good poll for Biden with 4-6 points swing compared to their September poll.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-biden-holds-narrow-lead-florida-n1245190
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/7277570-001FL-Annotated.html


RV:
Biden 51 (+4)
Trump 46 (-2)

LV
Biden 51(+3)
Trump 47 (-1)
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2020, 06:06:13 AM »
« Edited: October 29, 2020, 07:34:36 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
October 25-27
743 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with August 31 - September 5

Other 1% (n/c)
Undecided 1% (-1)
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2020, 07:01:27 AM »
Nice.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2020, 10:04:41 AM »

Biden up anyway? Damn.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2020, 10:05:31 AM »
Doesn't weight by education,, in the trash it goes
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2020, 10:11:34 AM »
« Edited: October 29, 2020, 10:20:04 AM by BudgieForce »
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on October 29, 2020, 10:05:31 AM
Doesn't weight by education,, in the trash it goes

Marist weighs by income for what its worth.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2020, 10:14:00 AM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on October 29, 2020, 10:11:34 AM
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on October 29, 2020, 10:05:31 AM
Doesn't weight by education,, in the trash it goes

Marist weighs be income for what its worth.

Trump’s base is low education high income though
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2020, 10:16:28 AM »
I will remain worried about FL until election night and possible beyond, depending on the call, but it's telling the Trump campaign withdrew ads from the state.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2020, 10:19:06 AM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on October 29, 2020, 10:14:00 AM
Quote from: BudgieForce on October 29, 2020, 10:11:34 AM
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on October 29, 2020, 10:05:31 AM
Doesn't weight by education,, in the trash it goes

Marist weighs be income for what its worth.

Actually, I'm pretty sure the median Clinton voter than the median Trump voter, at least based on exit polls. TBF, Clinton voters tend to live in places that are more expensive to begin with though, so it kind of cancels out I guess. The GOP appears to be moving in a direction of populism short term, and gaining ground amongst lower income rural voters long term.
Trump’s base is low education high income though
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2020, 10:23:41 AM »
Looks about right. I think Biden could win here by a surprisingly big margin (i.e. 2-3%).
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2020, 10:24:21 AM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 29, 2020, 10:23:41 AM
Looks about right. I think Biden could win here by a surprisingly big margin (i.e. 2-3%).

Weren't you dooming about Florida (albeit not about the election as a whole) as recently as earlier this morning?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2020, 10:27:19 AM »
Mike Murphy is suggesting this mirrors private data he’s seen:
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2020, 10:38:26 AM »
Biden wins Florida 52-47, that's my prediction.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #24 on: October 29, 2020, 12:00:53 PM »
Quote from: The scissors of false economy on October 29, 2020, 10:24:21 AM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 29, 2020, 10:23:41 AM
Looks about right. I think Biden could win here by a surprisingly big margin (i.e. 2-3%).

Weren't you dooming about Florida (albeit not about the election as a whole) as recently as earlier this morning?

He was likely kidding.

I think Biden wins Florida at this point. But NC goes for Trump.
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