“Doomers” megathread

[LimoLiberal]

5 Factors that Will Deliver Trump the Win Despite Everything - A LimoLiberal Analysis

1. “I’m coming home/coming home/tell the world that I’m coming home”

In the vast majority of polling since the spring, Joe Biden has achieved better numbers with WWC voters than Hillary Clinton achieved in the 2016 results. Much of Joe Biden's chances rely on this increased appeal to these voters - "Scranton Joe", etc. Now I do believe Biden will do better than Clinton in some WWC areas of the country - Erie, Scranton, southern Minnesota. Yet I think Biden will actually underperform Clinton in other WWC areas - the counties along with Ohio River in Ohio, northern Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. I project that WWC voters will break heavily towards Donald Trump in the closing stage of the campaign erasing the majority of gains Biden seemed like he would make. I don't subscribe to the "shy Trump theory", but I do think polls in the Midwest will underestimate Republicans again as they did in 2016 and 2018, and Trump will deliver narrow wins in Wisconsin and Michigan, and possibly Pennsylvania. You'll note that I left out any discussion of white college-educated voters, who polls show have shifted towards Democrats in large numbers. I do believe that in basically every white middle-to-high-income suburb Biden will outperform Clinton. If Biden is matching Clinton in WWC areas on balance and doing better with college-educated whites... how can Trump still win given the thinness of his 2016 margins in the former Blue Wall? That will be explained in the next several factors.

2. #Blexit

Well, not really. Joe Biden will win Black voters by an overwhelming margin, as Democrats have done for the past several decades. Yet Donald Trump will win the largest percentage of Black voters for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988: >12%. This will be integral to his campaigns in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania where Dems rely on Black voters in Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philly to deliver hundreds of thousands of votes. Let me be clear - this improvement will come at the margin. Joe Biden will still win these cities with Stalin-esque percentages, it will just be by less than Hillary, and even less than Obama 2008/12. Look at it like a puzzle; the vast majority of voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania fall into three groups: white voters with a college degree, white voters without a college degree, and Black voters*. No one disputes Biden will improve with college-educated whites, and I posit that Biden will do about the same with their non-college educated counterparts. Thus, Trump will offset his losses with gains among Black voters at a level Republicans haven't seen since Reagan. But Blacks make up a much smaller percentage of the vote than either group of whites in those states, so things still don't add up completely. How do we get to Trump wins in Michigan and Wisconsin?

3. The Forgotten Become Unforgettable
The United States is becoming more diverse by the second. Asians and Hispanics especially have grown greater than the population as a whole leading to more diverse electorates 2000-onwards. Yet 2020 will reverse that trend. I believe the 2020 electorate will be less diverse than the electorate four years ago, a result of a substantial surge in rural, white-working class turnout - those “forgotten” in American politics.

4. Voy a Votar Por Donald Trump

For months, Democrats on Atlas, Twitter, and beyond have scoffed at the idea Trump could do better with Hispanics than his 2016 performance. “But the family separations!” Yet muchos Latinos van a votar por Donald Trump. This will help Trump in Florida the most, but will also contribute to his wins in Georgia, North Carolina, and possibly Nevada.


5. I’ll take Hodgepodge for 1000, Alex

Democrats will see more of their votes tossed out as mail-in ballots, used heavily by Democrats, are disqualified for signature issues, “naked ballot” issues, turned in too late, etc. This will not have a massive effect but will matter on the margin.
The oil comments will hurt Biden on the margins in Pennsylvania and Texas.
3rd party vote will be down from 2016, but there will be a surprising amount of left-wing defection from Biden in some places.
Trump’s approval rating is rising rapidly on 538 and RCP, and he’s clearly consolidating undecided voters. This trend will continue until Election Day.


Final Predictions:
Michigan: Biden +2, Peters +0.2
Wisconsin: Trump +0.5
Pennsylvania: Trump +1
Ohio: Trump +7
Iowa: Trump +7, Ernst +7
Georgia: Trump +0.5, runoffs for both Senate races
North Carolina: Trump +2, Tillis +4
Florida: Trump +1.5
Arizona: Biden +0.1, Kelly +1
Maine: Biden +6, Gideon +1
ME-02: Trump +6
NE-02: Biden +3
Minnesota: Biden +1, Smith +3
New Hampshire: Biden +3, Shaheen +8
Nevada: Biden +1
Texas: Trump +4, Cornyn +6

[Hammy]

[snipped because it doesn't deserve to be in this thread twice]

You were one of the ones predicting a historic R win for the House in 2018, and in fact one of the reasons I thought that an R win and R Nevada hold were possible because I was mistaken in thinking wordy takes here actually had grounds in reality.

Your state predictions are completely laughable, especially Georgia being closer than Florida and Wisconsin (Trump's weakest Rust Belt state) being three points right of MI.

[LimoLiberal]

Does the fact that Trump keeps going up on the 538 national average not bother anyone else?

[WD]

Does the fact that Trump keeps going up on the 538 national average not bother anyone else?

Biden is leading by 8.5

[LimoLiberal]

Does the fact that Trump keeps going up on the 538 national average not bother anyone else?

Biden is leading by 8.5

And he was leading by 2 points more 10 days ago.

[Pericles]

Does the fact that Trump keeps going up on the 538 national average not bother anyone else?

Biden isn't losing any support, it's a small bump (and possibly herding at this point, final national polls have a mediocre track record compared to the slightly earlier ones). If it were a pos-Comey letter style surge, then it would be a worry (of course Biden's lead is so much stronger than Hillary's that eve if it somehow happened he'd still probably win anyway)

[WD]

Does the fact that Trump keeps going up on the 538 national average not bother anyone else?

Biden is leading by 8.5

And he was leading by 2 points more 10 days ago.

That was the height of Trump’s COVID diagnosis, where Biden got a bump, mostly due to Trump supporters not responding to polls (see: Non-Responce Bias), Also, notice now Biden hasn’t gone below 52% since mid October. The Numbers are evening out a bit, Biden+8-9 will be the end result. Also not

[Hammy]

Does the fact that Trump keeps going up on the 538 national average not bother anyone else?

Biden is leading by 8.5

And he was leading by 2 points more 10 days ago.

RASMUSSEN

Try paying attention to WHY the polling changes--I even posted a screenshot earlier.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I just got a Biden ad where they mention that there's a poll where they're down a point in Michigan. They're doomers because they wanted $25.

[emailking]

Does the fact that Trump keeps going up on the 538 national average not bother anyone else?

Bother sure. It doesn't make me more worried. 9, 10 or 11%, his chances are small. It's happening but the recent polls aren't as pro-Biden as they were a few weeks ago.

[HisGrace]

Biden still wins even if the polls are off by the same as last time, but Trump seems to be inching closer so we will see if he can get in striking distance. Again, it's not the PV that counts, it's the individual states. Biden is clearly winning the PV. Florida and Penn are extremely close if you adjust for the same polling error as last time.

[S019ian Liberal]

...i've got news for you: you ARE a doomer.

[S019ian Liberal]

are this Fox News echo chamber delusions

can these claims be objectively substantiated?

is this a repeat of their 2012 belief that their guy will win?

are we missing something here?

yes, no, yes, and also yes but that still doesn't mean we have missed anything that would not lead directly into Biden's victory.

y'all are more delusional than diehard maga fans even, and that's saying quite the something.

[Sestak]

God we desperately f[inks]ing need some blindly overconfident Democrats constantly posting extreme takes and predictions on this site.

[BlueSwan]

a) there’s been a massive surge in black male support for Trump,
therefore “if black males vote then Trump will win.” Also, Hispanics in Florida.

Polls seem to suggest there might be some swing to Trump from this demographic, but the part that goes "if black males vote then Trump will win" is obviously ludicrous. The more black males that vote the better it will be for Biden.

[LimoLiberal]

The IBD/Tipp poll has Biden +3, the lowest it’s ever been.

[BudgieForce]

The IBD/Tipp poll has Biden +3, the lowest it’s ever been.

They were 4 points off in Trump's direction in 2016.

[LimoLiberal]

Biden collapsing in Arizona and Pennsylvania, Republicans have won NC according to Michael McDonald. This is a disaster.

[Buzz]

IBD nailed the 2018 national margin!

[KaiserDave]

IBD nailed the 2018 national margin!

By chance really, they kept swinging from small to big leads for the Democrats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The IBD/Tipp poll has Biden +3, the lowest it’s ever been.

They were 4 points off in Trump's direction in 2016.

Doesn’t mean they’ll be more or less wrong this time, but defínales a reason to take with a grain of salt. I like looking at averages instead of cherry-picking outliers that support my narrative

[BlueSwan]

Biden collapsing in Arizona and Pennsylvania, Republicans have won NC according to Michael McDonald. This is a disaster.

I missed that. Where did McDonald say this?

[KaiserDave]

Biden collapsing in Arizona and Pennsylvania, Republicans have won NC according to Michael McDonald. This is a disaster.

Do shut up

Literal fake news

[Horus]

Biden collapsing in Arizona and Pennsylvania, Republicans have won NC according to Michael McDonald. This is a disaster.

Between that and Ralston only showing a +4 margin for Nevada, it looks like things are gonna come down to the wire.

[Hindsight was 2020]

That’s it I’m calling it. Rain in NoVa has destroyed Biden’s chances. Devastating 😞