“Doomers” megathread

[indietraveler]

It's not a reason to panic but could indicate other states in the midwest are closer than polls show. Even if this is the case, Biden still likely wins if people are going to apply every single thing from 2016 to now.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think it's a warning sign and shows that Biden cannot win Iowa and his support in Wisconsin may be overstated, probably not enough for him to lose it, but he is certainly not up 17.

Of course he’s not up by 17. Maybe the true answer is somewhere in the middle.

[Buzz]

Warning sign.  PA decides the election.

[Kuumo]

I think it's a warning sign and shows that Biden cannot win Iowa and his support in Wisconsin may be overstated, probably not enough for him to lose it, but he is certainly not up 17.

Does anyone srsly believe Biden is up 17 in Wisconsin?

Of course he was never actually up 17; what I meant was we should pay more attention to the non-trash polls in the lower end of his polling lead range.

[pikachu]

This probably borders on a rant, but I've had far too much coffee tonight and can't sleep.

I will ask the many doomers here, am I the only one who legitimately wants explanation as to why I shouldn't worry about a given issue? I have actual anxiety disorder and (after venting) need some elaboration on why a given thing is less likely to happen than I'm worrying, and I look at it and figure okay that makes more sense now. And often this is on concrete things, ranging from ballots (I am less concerned after looking at the return rate for example) or threats from the top--a lot of my anxieties result from my mind filling in the blanks in the absence of full information.

But quite a few people here seem seem to have this weird view, often without evidence, that everything will help Trump (all the hundreds of Trump bumps) or that the polls will be wrong because 2016 (despite explanation as to why) or completely ignoring what people are telling you and obsessing over trying to find some reason why the early vote is bad for Biden--do some of you actually enjoy doomer-ing?

This isn’t an original take, but I think it’s just post-2016 PTSD for people that don’t want to get hurt again. Sports fans do this a lot.

[Horus]

It's a warning sign for Wisconsin and Minnesota.

True, the national numbers are better for Dems this year as are the CD numbers (at least in the suburbs, we don't know if inner city strongholds will be quite as D which could explain some of the discrepancies between state and district polling.)

If the numbers out of the sun belt weren't also way better than 2016 I'd say the election is likely done, but they are better. As a bigtime doomer this doesn't increase my pessimism but it does confirm some of my gut feelings about the super duper Caucasian upper Midwest.

[SunSt0rm]

I am getting a bit worried after the Iowa tbh, wasnt really that much worried before it

[NYSforKennedy2024]

I am getting a bit worried after the Iowa tbh, wasnt really that much worried before it

Iowa was never really part of Biden's path.

[SunSt0rm]

I am getting a bit worried after the Iowa tbh, wasnt really that much worried before it

Iowa was never really part of Biden's path.

I was not really expecting Iowa to flip and I know Biden doesn't need it at all. But it could point that Wisconsin and Minnesota and other states in the midwest are much closer than the current polls are suggesting now. Hopefully its just an outlier. I will now wait for more polls especially ABC/Washington to see if there is any sign of tightening

[NYSforKennedy2024]

I am getting a bit worried after the Iowa tbh, wasnt really that much worried before it

Iowa was never really part of Biden's path.

I was not really expecting Iowa to flip and I know Biden doesn't need it at all. But it could point that Wisconsin and Minnesota and other states in the midwest are much closer than the current polls are suggesting now. Hopefully its just an outlier

Isn't Selzer like a B or C on FiveThirtyEight? Relax.

[Hammy]

Neither. A single poll in Iowa is not an indicator of how the election will go in other states.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

F**k F**k F**k F**k F**k F**k F**k F**k F**k F**k

The same exact sh*t. The same exact sh*t. The worrying EV numbers that people deflect with a variety of creative excuses. The tightening in the majority of polls but not all, with people latching on to polls that show Clinton/Biden doing great and calling everything that shows the opposite "junk" or trying to unskew it. It's happening all over again.

This country is so f*****.

Oh, but it's not exactly the same. This time we have a stacked Supreme Court, supporters of the Republican candidate physically assaulting his opponent (the Biden bus attack), and a Republican movement to just toss out ballots for no reason but that they fear the results of counting legitimate votes.

[swf541]

Neither. A single poll in Iowa is not an indicator of how the election will go in other states.

This and the crosstabs and other stuff in the poll looks like a poor sample

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Boring answer: We can't know until after the election is over.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Neither. A single poll in Iowa is not an indicator of how the election will go in other states.

This and the crosstabs and other stuff in the poll looks like a poor sample

Yeah, the Republican is not winning IA-01 by 15.  That's not even in the universe of sane outcomes.

Also a good point:

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1322687781672378368

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

I refuse to say his name as it leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

Anyway, why all the “45” polls today?

[It’s so Joever]

Crazy Forumlurker warned you all that Trump would win again.

[SunSt0rm]

I am getting a bit worried after the Iowa tbh, wasnt really that much worried before it

Iowa was never really part of Biden's path.

I was not really expecting Iowa to flip and I know Biden doesn't need it at all. But it could point that Wisconsin and Minnesota and other states in the midwest are much closer than the current polls are suggesting now. Hopefully its just an outlier

Isn't Selzer like a B or C on FiveThirtyEight? Relax.

Its A+
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Selzer=/="all the polls".

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Looks like the doomers have the keys to the kingdom for the next few days.

Enjoy!

[NYSforKennedy2024]

I am getting a bit worried after the Iowa tbh, wasnt really that much worried before it

Iowa was never really part of Biden's path.

I was not really expecting Iowa to flip and I know Biden doesn't need it at all. But it could point that Wisconsin and Minnesota and other states in the midwest are much closer than the current polls are suggesting now. Hopefully its just an outlier

Isn't Selzer like a B or C on FiveThirtyEight? Relax.

Its A+
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

See my post for why that poll is a ******* mess.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Trump winning IA by like 3-5 I could see but 7??

[LimoLiberal]

Looks like the doomers have the keys to the kingdom for the next few days.

Enjoy!

Bud, nothing would make me happier than you guys coming back in three days and relentlessly mocking us for being wrong. Nothing would please me more than having my reactions tonight being endlessly quoted in different threads for the next year.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Atlas has been something else since this poll was released. Wow, just unbelievable. Clear outlier poll.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322693191049580544