2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 16, 2024, 02:23:04 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 74 75 76 77 78 [79] 80 81 82 83 84 ... 103
Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2  (Read 86323 times)
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,083


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1950 on: October 31, 2020, 04:22:36 PM »
Logged
Kuumo
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,080


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1951 on: October 31, 2020, 04:23:18 PM »
Logged
new_patomic
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,217


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1952 on: October 31, 2020, 04:24:49 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2020, 04:28:02 PM by new_patomic »
Polls: Biden is doing better with seniors and independents which would suggest a higher level of cross-over support

Turnout: Can't reflect this, since it only shows party registration

Posters: ALARM!
Logged
Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,577


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1953 on: October 31, 2020, 04:25:31 PM »
Logged
cg41386
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,006
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.39, S: -7.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1954 on: October 31, 2020, 04:26:33 PM »
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,921
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1955 on: October 31, 2020, 04:27:09 PM »
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,062
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1956 on: October 31, 2020, 04:27:30 PM »
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,893
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1957 on: October 31, 2020, 04:31:33 PM »
Quote from: Virginiá on October 31, 2020, 04:27:09 PM


Turns out the historic enthusiasm in 2008 was actually just a result of Biden being the VP nominee. Whooda thunk.
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1958 on: October 31, 2020, 04:33:32 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2020, 06:20:06 PM by Monstro Still Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia »
Quote from: Virginiá on October 31, 2020, 04:27:09 PM


Really makes yesterday's complaining of young voters not turning out seem silly.
Logged
compucomp
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,588


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1959 on: October 31, 2020, 04:43:08 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 31, 2020, 04:02:16 PM
Looks like this one is over. The hubris of this campaign, not abandoning Florida a week ago when it was clear what was happening.



You've been banging this drum for at least a week now. Put your money where your mouth is, go on PredictIt, go long R/short D in FL, and show us your position.
Logged
Donerail
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,329
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1960 on: October 31, 2020, 04:45:36 PM »
RE: Florida, I will make a small concession to the doomers here and say that Republican turnout in the early vote hasn't petered off in quite the way I expected it to last weekend/this week. The observations others have made about NPA turnout and crossover support are true, but +116,000 is not a point in the partisan registration divide where I'd like to be heading into Election Day, given what we know about NPA splits and the number of Republicans we know will be voting on E-Day.

We have a weekend of early voting still to go, including the traditional voting Sunday for blacks. If Democrats can match their 2016 Sunday performance, when they banked ~87,000 votes statewide, I'd be feeling very confident in Biden's performance; if Democrats head into Election Day with an advantage of around 200,000, that's as close to a lock as you're gonna get. A moderately good weekend would see Democrats add maybe 30,000 — they'd still be favored to win at that point, but it might feel a little closer than would be comfortable. Obviously if Republicans hold even things will be very bad, and if they win early voting this weekend the doomers will be proven correct. Still, lot of hours to go.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1961 on: October 31, 2020, 04:45:48 PM »
Quote from: Monstro Still Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia on October 31, 2020, 04:21:55 PM
What is it with folks in this thread ignoring the Indy/NPA/NPP votes? I'm getting real sick of it

Especially annoying when the NPA vote is acting very similarly to the D vote:
Logged
philly09
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,111


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1962 on: October 31, 2020, 04:48:13 PM »
Well now.
Logged
philly09
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,111


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1963 on: October 31, 2020, 04:51:40 PM »
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1964 on: October 31, 2020, 04:59:41 PM »
Quote from: philly09 on October 31, 2020, 04:51:40 PM


Bad day to be a doomer.

Ah, who am I kidding, they'll invent some other excuse.
Logged
swf541
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,916


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1965 on: October 31, 2020, 05:01:23 PM »
Quote from: Anti-Florida Activist darthpi on October 31, 2020, 04:59:41 PM
Quote from: philly09 on October 31, 2020, 04:51:40 PM


Bad day to be a doomer.

Ah, who am I kidding, they'll invent some other excuse.

What state?
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1966 on: October 31, 2020, 05:03:07 PM »
Quote from: swf541 on October 31, 2020, 05:01:23 PM
Quote from: Anti-Florida Activist darthpi on October 31, 2020, 04:59:41 PM
Quote from: philly09 on October 31, 2020, 04:51:40 PM


Bad day to be a doomer.

Ah, who am I kidding, they'll invent some other excuse.

What state?

Florida
Logged
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1967 on: October 31, 2020, 05:03:38 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 31, 2020, 04:02:16 PM
Looks like this one is over. The hubris of this campaign, not abandoning Florida a week ago when it was clear what was happening.



this bar chart is misleading.  It looks like they are even but there are more registered democrats than republicans. 

Democrats have more voters so they still maintain a 90k vote advantage.

The trendlines are looking good too.

Daily Turnout for the last 3 days:

Dem.         GOP
139,112   181,908   -42,796
146,089   194,282   -48,193
99,347   122,038   -22,691
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,236


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1968 on: October 31, 2020, 05:03:49 PM »
Quote from: The Mikado on October 31, 2020, 04:01:48 PM
GA finishes JUST short of overtaking 2016 turnout in early voting.



As a resident of Forsyth County, I'll point out that that increase in turnout almost exactly matches the county's population growth during the same period (estimated 220K in 2016 to 252K in 2020).
Logged
ExSky
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 543


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1969 on: October 31, 2020, 05:07:13 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 31, 2020, 05:03:49 PM
Quote from: The Mikado on October 31, 2020, 04:01:48 PM
GA finishes JUST short of overtaking 2016 turnout in early voting.



As a resident of Forsyth County, I'll point out that that increase in turnout almost exactly matches the county's population growth during the same period (estimated 220K in 2016 to 252K in 2020).

Which is excellent considering we have the biggest day of voting left to go. Should far outpace population growth by Tuesday.
Logged
forsythvoter
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 736


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1970 on: October 31, 2020, 05:10:54 PM »
Yeah, this area is growing like wildfire. It wasn't that long ago when Windermere was considered the boonies. I'm willing to bet the newer residents vote considerably more D than the older ones, if my neighborhood is any indication.

Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 31, 2020, 05:03:49 PM
Quote from: The Mikado on October 31, 2020, 04:01:48 PM
GA finishes JUST short of overtaking 2016 turnout in early voting.



As a resident of Forsyth County, I'll point out that that increase in turnout almost exactly matches the county's population growth during the same period (estimated 220K in 2016 to 252K in 2020).
Logged
Stockdale for Veep
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 813


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1971 on: October 31, 2020, 05:22:21 PM »
Da Numbers Guy's transformation from doomer to "hey this is looking ok" in the span of 5 days is Prestige Drama level quality.
Logged
swf541
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,916


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1972 on: October 31, 2020, 05:23:27 PM »
Quote from: Anti-Florida Activist darthpi on October 31, 2020, 05:03:07 PM
Quote from: swf541 on October 31, 2020, 05:01:23 PM
Quote from: Anti-Florida Activist darthpi on October 31, 2020, 04:59:41 PM
Quote from: philly09 on October 31, 2020, 04:51:40 PM


Bad day to be a doomer.

Ah, who am I kidding, they'll invent some other excuse.

What state?

Florida

Thanks
Logged
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,835
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1973 on: October 31, 2020, 05:25:09 PM »
Quote from: The Mikado on October 31, 2020, 04:01:48 PM
GA finishes JUST short of overtaking 2016 turnout in early voting.



Wow. If Forsyth ends up at ~140% of 2016 turnout on election day and the new voters split 60-40 Biden (both reasonable imo), it'll go Trump 63-Biden 37. Which is crazy.
Logged
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,358


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1974 on: October 31, 2020, 05:26:10 PM »
Quote from: Blairite on October 31, 2020, 05:25:09 PM
Quote from: The Mikado on October 31, 2020, 04:01:48 PM
GA finishes JUST short of overtaking 2016 turnout in early voting.



Wow. If Forsyth ends up at ~140% of 2016 turnout on election day and the new voters split 60-40 Biden (both reasonable imo), it'll go Trump 63-Biden 37. Which is crazy.

60-40 Biden for new voters is a lot to ask in Forsyth. Let's say they split 50-50. Still a very favorable swing to Biden.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 74 75 76 77 78 [79] 80 81 82 83 84 ... 103  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.056 seconds with 13 queries.