2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[forza nocta]

Do not let Florida ruin your mood going into Tuesday. Biden is doing well basically everywhere else.

I'm not even worried about Florida because I have it embedded in my head that it is ALWAYS titanium tilt-R. The early vote there doesn't matter at all because Trump was gonna win it all along, no matter what the polls say or what you're seeing on the ground or whatever. The sooner you other red-avatars get that through your head, the better life will be when it comes to Florida and you will never be disappointed or worry about that useless state.

[Ljube]

Texas is a low turnout state.

[Ljube]

Do not let Florida ruin your mood going into Tuesday. Biden is doing well basically everywhere else.

I'm not even worried about Florida because I have it embedded in my head that it is ALWAYS titanium tilt-R. The early vote there doesn't matter at all because Trump was gonna win it all along, no matter what the polls say or what you're seeing on the ground or whatever. The sooner you other red-avatars get that through your head, the better life will be when it comes to Florida and you will never be disappointed or worry about that useless state.

I don't think it is realistic to expect that Florida can be an isolated case. Florida is a high turnout state and the fact that it is close is an indication that the election is not going to be a Biden blowout.

[forza nocta]

Do not let Florida ruin your mood going into Tuesday. Biden is doing well basically everywhere else.

I'm not even worried about Florida because I have it embedded in my head that it is ALWAYS titanium tilt-R. The early vote there doesn't matter at all because Trump was gonna win it all along, no matter what the polls say or what you're seeing on the ground or whatever. The sooner you other red-avatars get that through your head, the better life will be when it comes to Florida and you will never be disappointed or worry about that useless state.

I don't think it is realistic to expect that Florida can be an isolated case. Florida is a high turnout state and the fact that it is close is an indication that the election is not going to be a Biden blowout.

Florida is always close.... It is literally always an isolated case.

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

All party designations have surpassed their total 2016 EV Turnout %.  This is especially huge for NPAs which had the largest registration gain statewide of +663,357 since 2016.  More than both Reps and Dems.

Dems 59.0% (+2.6)
Reps  57.4%  (+3.5)
NPAs  43.2%  (+3.0)




EV Totals have been achieved in almost all counties except Miami Dade who will hit this today.  For all of the hand wringing--- do you realize Miami Dems hit 343,121 in all of EV in 2016 and are above that raw number today, with three days left at 355,174?

Reps are doing well from a raw vote standpoint- but they should, they increased voter registration from 2016 by a larger margin in the county.
Republican increase +56,011 to 428,415
Democratic increase +48,285 to 634,092
But I bet you didn’t know…NPAs increased a whopping +81,044 to 482,076 in M-D

It would be huge if NPAs achieve the same turnout % as 2016 with an increase in registration of 20% in one cycle.  Current NPA status with the higher denominator in M-D is 46.8%, it was 49.6% at the end of EV in ’16.    😊

[riceowl]

So according to whether Atlas is freaking out or overjoyed about early numbers from certain states, we can expect this to me the result?
(354 map snip)

Honestly, outside of Nevada flipping, that looks like a pretty reasonable map

Always knew the Louisiana Purchase was a mistake

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Turnout Tracker

All party designations have surpassed their total 2016 EV Turnout %.  This is especially huge for NPAs which had the largest registration gain statewide of +663,357 since 2016.  More than both Reps and Dems.

Dems 59.0% (+2.6)
Reps  57.4%  (+3.5)
NPAs  43.2%  (+3.0)




EV Totals have been achieved in almost all counties except Miami Dade who will hit this today.  For all of the hand wringing--- do you realize Miami Dems hit 343,121 in all of EV in 2016 and are above that raw number today, with three days left at 355,174?

Reps are doing well from a raw vote standpoint- but they should, they increased voter registration from 2016 by a larger margin in the county.
Republican increase +56,011 to 428,415
Democratic increase +48,285 to 634,092
But I bet you didn’t know…NPAs increased a whopping +81,044 to 482,076 in M-D

It would be huge if NPAs achieve the same turnout % as 2016 with an increase in registration of 20% in one cycle.  Current NPA status with the higher denominator in M-D is 46.8%, it was 49.6% at the end of EV in ’16.    😊

1) thank you for posting now so all of the previous Florida bedwetting got pushed back a page.

2) I think you're right about NPA's.  

3) I too don't understand the bedwetting on Miami Dade.  They are clearly on track to surpass their 2016 totals.

At 59% turnout if Dem hit 62% by the end of today they will be well positioned to get close to 70% turnout before Election Day.

[Non Swing Voter]

Do not let Florida ruin your mood going into Tuesday. Biden is doing well basically everywhere else.

I'm not even worried about Florida because I have it embedded in my head that it is ALWAYS titanium tilt-R. The early vote there doesn't matter at all because Trump was gonna win it all along, no matter what the polls say or what you're seeing on the ground or whatever. The sooner you other red-avatars get that through your head, the better life will be when it comes to Florida and you will never be disappointed or worry about that useless state.

I don't think it is realistic to expect that Florida can be an isolated case. Florida is a high turnout state and the fact that it is close is an indication that the election is not going to be a Biden blowout.

Really?  Because that's exactly what happened in 2018.  Florida was an outlier in terms of what happened nationwide.  Lets also not forget that Rick Scott won Florida by 10,000 votes after spending $100 million. 

[Sbane]

I should preface this by saying I'm not an expert on Florida Politics but the two things that seems to be ignored is...

1.) The polling shows a huge shift among 65+ voters. I don't know how this shows up in the early vote ID (are these registered republicans or NPA 65+ voters who are flipping?)

2.) The number of independents/NPA or registered republicans who are voting for Biden; I feel like there could be such an intense focus on Florida hispanics that people ignore the rest of the state.

On the final point it does seem to generally be a flaw for any state party which will only win if they can turn out an electorate where part of it is extremely political engaged & fickle (Cuban-Americans) & where the other part is harder to turn out (non Cuban-hispanics)

It seems like a complete repeat of 2016 where the entire Clinton operation & the whole of Atlas/Political twitter focused on the large swings in Miami-Dade but ignored the even larger swings among independent & white voters outside of Miami-Dade.

Am I right in saying that this is currently only a Miami-Dade problem and the other south democratic counties like Broward & Palm Beach are doing okay?

Both Broward and PBC are doing well in terms of turnout. Any weakness in Miami-Dade may be countered by those two counties themselves, even before we get to the rest of the state.

[Non Swing Voter]

CNN showing huge lines in Cobb county Georgia right now.  The huge turnout continues....

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN showing huge lines in Cobb county Georgia right now.  The huge turnout continues....

Interesting.  The AJC is reporting not many lines for early voting today:

The last and largest day of early voting Friday got off to a smooth start for most metro Atlanta voters, but a few voting locations remained closed because of power failures after heavy storms.

Voters reported short lines at polling places, with the longest waits at about an hour. Some locations had no lines at all.
...
The busy day of voting is likely to break more turnout records for early voting this year. Already, 3.6 million voters have cast early or absentee ballots, 50% more than in 2016.

The final day of early voting always has the highest turnout, and Friday probably won’t be an exception. Election officials have said as many as 400,000 people could vote at 336 in-person early voting locations across Georgia on Friday.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/polls-open-for-high-turnout-on-last-day-of-georgia-early-voting/TQOKWG3E5ZGO5DEWCQNE5IGHWQ/

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/conorjrogers/status/1322162797459828737

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/conorjrogers/status/1322162797459828737

If this is even close to true, good night Irene

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/conorjrogers/status/1322162797459828737

Whats the source for this?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Congratulations TX!

[Ljube]

Project Lincoln propaganda.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/conorjrogers/status/1322162797459828737

Whats the source for this?

It's at the bottom of the chart, but kind of hard to see.  It says "Source: Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape.  Data collected betwween October 22, 2020 and October 28, 2020."

[forza nocta]

Hmm. Big if true.

[new_patomic]

I mean that seems sort of expected, really.

I've always kind of suspected that whatever crossover voters Biden is getting, they're also probably more likely to be voting early too.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/conorjrogers/status/1322162797459828737

In 1980, Reagan received 27% of Democrat's votes.

So uh, good implications for Biden here...

[Non Swing Voter]

1/3 of the early vote in Michigan is coming from Wayne and Oakland counties.  Good sign for Dems so far?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/conorjrogers/status/1322162797459828737

In 1980, Reagan received 27% of Democrat's votes.

So uh, good implications for Biden here...

And Reagan was an absolute force of charisma and "feeling good to be an American".  

While I sincerely doubt that Biden will pull double-digits with Republicans when all is said and done, the fact that this indicates a larger-than-usual portion of crossover voters is somewhat telling.  

[Non Swing Voter]

Some big turnout numbers in NC:

WAKE   482,663   
MECKLENBURG   442,836   
GUILFORD   212,442   
FORSYTH   150,633   
DURHAM   149,826   

Durham is getting really close to 100% of 2016 turnout.

[pantsaregood]

Some big turnout numbers in NC:

WAKE   482,663   
MECKLENBURG   442,836   
GUILFORD   212,442   
FORSYTH   150,633   
DURHAM   149,826   

Durham is getting really close to 100% of 2016 turnout.

Greensboro Joe!

[Adam Griffin]

Harris coming back to Georgia and North Carolina (2 separate stops) on Sunday.