2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[philly09]

Current Miami-Dade numbers;

GOP:253,308

Dem:336,578

Dems have just over a 183,000 vote lead.

NPA: 219,000(estimated)

[WD]

Bad news for the GOP in Montana:

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1322009496517025793

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1322008488554434560

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1322008488554434560

Once again.

Let the slaughtering begin.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Just the fact that Atlas is dismissing the closest thing we have to experts, in this thread tells you everything you need to know about it.

Wasserman is the true expert.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Why are Democrats freaking out so much about turnout in Miami Dade specifically?  The turnout doesn't look way out of whack.  Though the Republican turnout looks a bit elevated there.

Because it is a few days before an election, and at this point it is a second nature unconscious tic to always worry about Miami-Dade County, regardless of the circumstances.

Either "Miami-Dade County will be bad" or "Miami-Dade County will be good, but not good enough." At least it isn't any worse than worrying about the I-4 corridor.

[Senator Spark]

Current Miami-Dade numbers;

GOP:253,308

Dem:336,578

Dems have just over a 183,000 vote lead.

NPA: 219,000(estimated)

Trump netting 35k votes there and it can offset the losses in the I-4 corridor.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Why are Democrats freaking out so much about turnout in Miami Dade specifically?  The turnout doesn't look way out of whack.  Though the Republican turnout looks a bit elevated there.

Because it is a few days before an election, and at this point it is a second nature unconscious tic to always worry about Miami-Dade County, regardless of the circumstances.

Either "Miami-Dade County will be bad" or "Miami-Dade County will be good, but not good enough." At least it isn't any worse than worrying about the I-4 corridor.

Everyone is freaking out about Miami-Dade and missing the fact that Trump could end up with under 55% in Lake and Marion counties and might even lose Sarasota county.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm currently getting the TX early vote updates ready for tomorrow and I'm noticing a number of big counties that had best their best voting day of the week yesterday.

I get the feeling Texas is gonna go out with a bang tomorrow on the last day of early voting


EDIT: Here's something that might get TrendsareUsuallyReal excited. Hidalgo county banked 9,985 today, their best day in nearly 2 weeks. That pushed their overall turnout from 94.2% to 99.97% of 2016's total vote

[Storr]

Why are Democrats freaking out so much about turnout in Miami Dade specifically?  The turnout doesn't look way out of whack.  Though the Republican turnout looks a bit elevated there.

Because it is a few days before an election, and at this point it is a second nature unconscious tic to always worry about Miami-Dade County, regardless of the circumstances.

Either "Miami-Dade County will be bad" or "Miami-Dade County will be good, but not good enough." At least it isn't any worse than worrying about the I-4 corridor.

Everyone is freaking out about Miami-Dade and missing the fact that Trump could end up with under 55% in Lake and Marion counties and might even lose Sarasota county.

Not to mention DUUUUUVAL.

[philly09]

Current Miami-Dade numbers;

GOP:253,308

Dem:336,578

Dems have just over a 183,000 vote lead.

NPA: 219,000(estimated)

Trump netting 35k votes there and it can offset the losses in the I-4 corridor.

Unless the NPA's break heavily for Biden.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Spikes again in turnout from TX Dems base counties:

Travis adds 26k, and sits pretty at a new record 521k! Can they get to 700k on Election Day?

Hidalgo adds 10k and is only 1k shy of the 2016 record of 174k, and will easily pass tomorrow!

Cameron County adds over 4.5K in-person ballots (mail not included) putting them at 88.5k total. They will pass 2016’s record tomorrow

Webb County adds 3.6k, with 48.8k total, they are just 1k shy of 2018, and 9k shy of the 2016 record! They probably won’t beat it tomorrow, but they easily will on Election Day, and my hope is we can push that number to 70k+ (over 50% turnout)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Spikes again in turnout from TX Dems base counties:

Travis adds 26k, and sits pretty at a new record 521k! Can they get to 700k on Election Day?

Hidalgo adds 10k and is only 1k shy of the 2016 record of 174k, and will easily pass tomorrow!

Cameron County adds over 4.5K in-person ballots (mail not included) putting them at 88.5k total. They will pass 2016’s record tomorrow

Webb County adds 3.6k, with 48.8k total, they are just 1k shy of 2018, and 9k shy of the 2016 record! They probably won’t beat it tomorrow, but they easily will on Election Day, and my hope is we can push that number to 70k+ (over 50% turnout)

Really glad to see those South Texas turnouts catching up, that had been one of my bigger concerns in terms of making a flip possible. Still some question about where the margin ends up, but I'm optimistic.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Tarrant County just updated. 40k votes today, their biggest day since last Wednesday.

And with that, they eclipsed their 2016 vote totals!

[philly09]

Tarrant County just updated. 40k votes today, their biggest day since last Wednesday.

And with that, they eclipsed their 2016 vote totals!

Boom-shacka-lacka.

Anything out of Kenedy County?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Tarrant County just updated. 40k votes today, their biggest day since last Wednesday.

And with that, they eclipsed their 2016 vote totals!

Dallas and El Paso are now the only big top 10 counties remaining! (I already count Hidalgo as in the bag).

[Holmes]

Hopefully Dallas county can pass 100% tomorrow.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Tarrant County just updated. 40k votes today, their biggest day since last Wednesday.

And with that, they eclipsed their 2016 vote totals!

Dallas and El Paso are now the only big top 10 counties remaining! (I already count Hidalgo as in the bag).

How do you think they'll finish tomorrow? I feel Dallas will eclipse it easily while El Paso might get around 97-98%.

Call me cynical for once regarding Texas, but I'll be surprised if El Paso gets to 100% by tomorrow night

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Does anyone know what percent of the Texas vote typically comes from the vast expanse of sparsely populated rural areas?  I guess with the cities and suburbs booming they'll make up a much smaller share this year.

There are ~29 million Texans as of 2019 estimate. ~21 million of them live in the triangle highlighted on the map, ~8 million of them live in the entire rest of the state.

Wow and that doesn't count El Paso + RGV.

Is Texas going to be Virginia in 8 years?

About 3.5 million of that remaining 8 million are in counties that O’Rourke won (Nueces, Hidalgo, Jefferson, Cameron, El Paso, and Webb make up a huge chunk). The challenge is just getting them out to vote.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Tarrant County just updated. 40k votes today, their biggest day since last Wednesday.

And with that, they eclipsed their 2016 vote totals!

Dallas and El Paso are now the only big top 10 counties remaining! (I already count Hidalgo as in the bag).

How do you think they'll end up? I feel Dallas will eclipse it tomorrow, while El Paso might get around 97-98%.

I think Dallas will pass it, and El Paso will be really close. Do you have the numbers for today? The only thing I can find on the county clerk website is from yesterday, 10/28. Lean yes, though, as long as they were able to add 10k+ today to their current 192k total, they should get it tomorrow.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1322006684680785920

I'm gonna go ahead and make an observation on this Florida Hispanic turnout freakout.

What is being compared here is the overall turnout rate of Dem Hispanics in 2020 to Republican Hispanics in 2020.

However, this is not really the comparison we ought to be making. This would only be an appropriate comparison to make if Hispanic Ds and Hispanic Rs were demographically similar and if, other things equal, we would normally expect them to actually have equal turnout rates.

It may be (and I strongly suspect probably is) the case that demographic differences between Dem Hispanics and GOP Hispanics mean that we should expect GOP Hispanics to have higher turnout and that we should be surprised if that were NOT the case.

What would those demographic differences be? Well, :

1) Hispanic Republicans tend to be older than Hispanic Democrats, for similar generational reasons to why White Republicans tend to be older than White Democrats. Thus, other things equal we should expect higher percentage turnout from Hispanic Rs than Hispanic Ds.
2) Hispanic Republicans are disproportionately Cubans. Unlike other Hispanic groups, Cubans automatically are eligible for US citizenship and thus older Cubans who were not born in the US are eligible to vote, whereas older non-Cubans who were not born in the US are less likely to be citizens and less likely eligible to vote. There is the exception of Puerto Ricans, who are also automatically citizens, but Puerto Ricans are not the main non-Cuban group in Miami-Dade (Central Americans from Nicaragua and Honduras are the main non-Cuban group, with lots of other national origins spread across Central America/South America). Anyway, the fact that a disproportionate share of Cuban olds, as compared to Nicaraguan/Honduran/other Hispanic olds, are eligible to vote biases the age distribution of Hispanic Rs as compared to Hispanic Ds in Miami-Dade upwards even more. And that also biases the expected turnout of Hispanic Rs upwards as compared to Hispanic Ds, since we all know that olds vote more than youngs.

It may well be, and probably was, the case that in 2016 and in previous years (including 2008 and 2012, and we know how things turned out then) GOP Hispanics also had higher turnout than Dem Hispanics for those simple and pretty obvious demographic reasons.

In other words, a great deal (if not all) of this turnout differential may be explained not by partisanship, but by age. And to the degree it is explained by age, it is not unexpected. It is not breaking news that olds vote at higher rates than youngs, and that is already taken into account in polling and campaigns' voter modeling.

So the more appropriate comparison to look at would be to compare Dem Hispanics in 2016 to Dem Hispanics in 2020, and GOP Hispanics in 2016 to GOP Hispanics in 2020.

The more telling questions are not if GOP Hispanic turnout is higher than Dem Hispanic turnout, but are whether Dem Hispanic turnout now is higher or lower than in 2016 (and other previous elections) and likewise if GOP Hispanic turnout now is higher or lower than in 2016 (and other previous elections).

If someone with access to the relevant voter file data feels like telling us that, then we would actually know something interesting and relevant. But absent that, this freakout is little more than a bunch of uninformed hot air.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Tarrant County just updated. 40k votes today, their biggest day since last Wednesday.

And with that, they eclipsed their 2016 vote totals!

Dallas and El Paso are now the only big top 10 counties remaining! (I already count Hidalgo as in the bag).

How do you think they'll end up? I feel Dallas will eclipse it tomorrow, while El Paso might get around 97-98%.

I think Dallas will pass it, and El Paso will be really close. Do you have the numbers for today? The only thing I can find on the county clerk website is from yesterday, 10/28. Lean yes, though, as long as they were able to add 10k+ today to their current 192k total, they should get it tomorrow.

Both counties seem to update their totals the following morning.

El Paso is about 21k away. If they ended up getting around 10k today, I could see them reaching 100%. I'm certainly excited though!

[LimoLiberal]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/miami-voter-turnout-democrats-433643

MIAMI — Democrats are sounding the alarm about weak voter turnout rates in Florida’s biggest county, Miami-Dade, where a strong Republican showing is endangering Joe Biden’s chances in the nation’s biggest swing state.

The NAACP is helping Wilson produce a video for the virtual church services that talks about the dual threats of coronavirus and not voting.

“There is not the turnout here [Miami] in the black community that I’ve seen in the past. I can speculate about the reasons, but the fact is it remains concerning,” said state Sen. Oscar Braynon, a Black Miami Democrat who held a get-out-the-vote event Wednesday with rapper Fat Joe Wednesday.

The share of vote cast by Black voters in the county is a point lower today than at this point in 2016, while the overall Black vote statewide is only negligibly higher, according to the Democratic data firm TargetSmart.

But in Rep. Wilson’s congressional district, there’s still worry. She knows many have voted by mail and therefore aren’t at the polls. Still, she would like to see more voters showing up at the polls before in-person early voting ends Sunday night.

“I’ve been going to the different polling places,” she said, “and you know, I never dreamed that Black people would be reticent at this point in Mr. Trump's administration about voting.”

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/LinaHidalgoTX/status/1322013891929526273

[soundchaser]

STOP RELYING ON TARGETSMART. Christ almighty.