2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Gass3268]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

https://twitter.com/TRElections/status/1320213142413168640

but is that ballots returned to date in 2020? we still have more time to go if they are only down by 40k.

Oh they will close the gap. Just it will nowhere be near the 16/18 GOP leads, and 18 was still a D+4/5 win in Maricopa despite the GOP advantage. A small GOP EV lead or tie seems to comport with high single digit maricopa lead for Biden  in polls, and that would basically guarantee a Biden victory in the state

Pima County (home of Tucson) is also looking excellent for Ds

how much did the R's lead by? was is it similar to now having the reps behind?

Republicans had a solid lead for most of that election.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Arizona is the low-key most important state IMO.  Biden definitely looks strong there, but still too early to come out with any definitive statements.  I would give him probably a 75% chance of taking it. It also looks like it might turn red on PredictIt here soon, so if you want to make some money, hammer it as soon as it does.

Are the people on PredictIt crazy lol
I can see why they would think trump will win FL but the Numbers coming out of AZ dont seem good for Trump or the the GOP at all....

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1320219458254884864

So does this mean that the rest of them have been accepted and that there are very few rejections in PA?  I remember hearing people saying that as many as 200k PA ballots could get rejected due to the naked ballot issue.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1320219458254884864

So does this mean that the rest of them have been accepted and that there are very few rejections in PA?  I remember hearing people saying that as many as 200k PA ballots could get rejected due to the naked ballot issue.

I believe that the court ruling a few days ago rendered that moot.

[Stockdale for Veep]

Doomers getting their daily FL fix.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Arizona is the low-key most important state IMO.  Biden definitely looks strong there, but still too early to come out with any definitive statements.  I would give him probably a 75% chance of taking it.  It also looks like it might turn red on PredictIt here soon, so if you want to make some money, hammer it as soon as it does.

Are the people on PredictIt crazy lol
I can see why they would think trump will win FL but the Numbers coming out of AZ dont seem good for Trump or the the GOP at all....

PredictIt is full of Trump cultists (just read the comments, ugh), which is hardly a bad thing, it means we can take their money. A lot of people there also seem to unironically believe that "Democrats hate to nominate white males" talking point which made for good earnings during the primary, and amongst certain races in 2018. It's amazing people not only believe that but are willing to bet money based on it.

[NOVA Green]

@TRElections
Whoa.
 2016 and 2020 basically reversed. Remember, nearly 80% of Arizona voters voted by mail in the 2018 general election. In 2016, nearly 69% of Arizona voters voted by mail. There may not be a huge general election in person surge for Republicans. AZ has a long VBM history
Quote Tweet
The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru
@Garrett_Archer
 · 29m
Just about to put the kid down, but this is worth a tweet.

Maricopa County:
2016 - all early ballots returned prior to election day:
Total: 1,025,703
R: 421,566
D: 327,546
O: 276,591

2020 - Early ballots
Total: 1,064,013
R: 379,435
D: 421,241
O: 263,337

Have a good night.

Blue Arizona is basically confirmed.

Also there are a lot of registered voters in AZ that now at least lean Democratic. I remember Republicans had higher turnout in 2018, but Sinema still ended up winning the county.

AZ-08 says hello from way back in the special election of 4/24/18....  

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=287204.msg6135267#msg6135267

AZ-06 looks like it might well flip in 2020, and Maricopa County now looks like it might well a DEM stronghold for the next decade???

Crazy times are coming, and not just some random Evangelical "end of times" sorta spin, but Anglo White folks in the SW grooving with their friends, co-workers, and neighbors some of whom might speak English as a Second Language, but can still converse in English with their friends, co-workers, and neighbors as well.

This is not the Arizona of your Anglo Grandparents from way back in the days of Sun City, Arizona.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1320219458254884864

So does this mean that the rest of them have been accepted and that there are very few rejections in PA?  I remember hearing people saying that as many as 200k PA ballots could get rejected due to the naked ballot issue.

I believe that the court ruling a few days ago rendered that moot.

I think there's still a possibility of a non-negligible chunk of votes being rejected because of that whole "naked ballot" thing, but the signature issue was by-and-large the biggest worry. 

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Arizona is the low-key most important state IMO.  Biden definitely looks strong there, but still too early to come out with any definitive statements.  I would give him probably a 75% chance of taking it.  It also looks like it might turn red on PredictIt here soon, so if you want to make some money, hammer it as soon as it does.

Are the people on PredictIt crazy lol
I can see why they would think trump will win FL but the Numbers coming out of AZ dont seem good for Trump or the the GOP at all....

PredictIt is full of Trump cultists (just read the comments, ugh), which is hardly a bad thing, it means we can take their money. A lot of people there also seem to unironically believe that "Democrats hate to nominate white males" talking point which made for good earnings during the primary, and amongst certain races in 2018. It's amazing people not only believe that but are willing to bet money based on it.

YouTube and Predictit are full of MAGA cultists. The dislike to like ratio is always very negative on any Biden or Democratic video. The YouTube comment section is just as bad as Predictit.

[TopShelfGoal]

Can the GOP please keep running McSally in every GOP congressional seat in AZ until the entire AZ congressional delegation is blue?

[n1240]

NC 10/24, day 9 early in-person vote:

Dem 43238 (34.8%)
Rep 46265 (37.2%)
Una 34887 (28.0%)
Total 124390

compared to day 9 in 2016

Dem 57744 (40.7%)
Rep 46591 (32.8%)
Una 37589 (26.5%)
Total 141924

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 888368 (38.3%)
Rep 778980 (33.6%)
Una 651202 (28.1%)

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1255960 (40.7%)
Rep 929324 (30.1%)
Una 901697 (29.2%)

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 710897 (44.1%)
Rep 499922 (31.0%)
Una 400644 (24.9%)
Total 1611463

GOP wins early in-person vote for 5th consecutive day but by smaller margin than previous days, only chip into the overall Dem raw ballot lead by 1k votes after considering mail-in vote.

[tagimaucia]

Arizona is the low-key most important state IMO.  Biden definitely looks strong there, but still too early to come out with any definitive statements.  I would give him probably a 75% chance of taking it.  It also looks like it might turn red on PredictIt here soon, so if you want to make some money, hammer it as soon as it does.

Are the people on PredictIt crazy lol

Yes lol.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1320219458254884864

So does this mean that the rest of them have been accepted and that there are very few rejections in PA?  I remember hearing people saying that as many as 200k PA ballots could get rejected due to the naked ballot issue.

I believe that the court ruling a few days ago rendered that moot.

Also, the bed wetting about the naked ballot issue caused a huge stir and basically everyone in PA knows about it now. There has been constant commercials and ads about it on how to return your ballot properly.

[DaleCooper]

From my understanding, while it is a risk, with proper instruction and awareness it's fairly easy and intuitive to correct the naked ballot issue. You place your ballot inside of the envelope that is included with your ballot, as instructed. With signatures, you can sign in good faith as instructed yet still get your vote challenged and thrown out, so it's a big win that the PA courts threw out the signature validation requirements.

[Brittain33]

AZ-06 looks like it might well flip in 2020, and Maricopa County now looks like it might well a DEM stronghold for the next decade

Or it goes back to 50/50 starting with the first Biden mid-term, I fear.

[Brittain33]

Can the GOP please keep running McSally in every GOP congressional seat in AZ until the entire AZ congressional delegation is blue?

Roque de la McSally

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1320219458254884864

So does this mean that the rest of them have been accepted and that there are very few rejections in PA?  I remember hearing people saying that as many as 200k PA ballots could get rejected due to the naked ballot issue.

I believe that the court ruling a few days ago rendered that moot.

Also, the bed wetting about the naked ballot issue caused a huge stir and basically everyone in PA knows about it now. There has been constant commercials and ads about it on how to return your ballot properly.

And the ads are SUPER slimmed-down and easy to follow.  They're not full of flashy graphics, it's literally just a voice-over, text, and simple clip-art.  

It reminds me of those "if you have taken [insert drug here], you may be entitled to a share from a class-action lawsuit..." ads that air during daytime TV.  

[wbrocks67]

NC 10/24, day 9 early in-person vote:

Dem 43238 (34.8%)
Rep 46265 (37.2%)
Una 34887 (28.0%)
Total 124390

compared to day 9 in 2016

Dem 57744 (40.7%)
Rep 46591 (32.8%)
Una 37589 (26.5%)
Total 141924

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 888368 (38.3%)
Rep 778980 (33.6%)
Una 651202 (28.1%)

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1255960 (40.7%)
Rep 929324 (30.1%)
Una 901697 (29.2%)

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 710897 (44.1%)
Rep 499922 (31.0%)
Una 400644 (24.9%)
Total 1611463

GOP wins early in-person vote for 5th consecutive day but by smaller margin than previous days, only chip into the overall Dem raw ballot lead by 1k votes after considering mail-in vote.

If Saturday was this meh for the GOP, I think Dems may actually end up winning the day today with Souls to the Polls

[n1240]

NC 10/24, day 9 early in-person vote:

Dem 43238 (34.8%)
Rep 46265 (37.2%)
Una 34887 (28.0%)
Total 124390

compared to day 9 in 2016

Dem 57744 (40.7%)
Rep 46591 (32.8%)
Una 37589 (26.5%)
Total 141924

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 888368 (38.3%)
Rep 778980 (33.6%)
Una 651202 (28.1%)

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1255960 (40.7%)
Rep 929324 (30.1%)
Una 901697 (29.2%)

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 710897 (44.1%)
Rep 499922 (31.0%)
Una 400644 (24.9%)
Total 1611463

GOP wins early in-person vote for 5th consecutive day but by smaller margin than previous days, only chip into the overall Dem raw ballot lead by 1k votes after considering mail-in vote.

If Saturday was this meh for the GOP, I think Dems may actually end up winning the day today with Souls to the Polls

Last weekend Dems did better on Saturday than they did on Friday, and better than Sunday than on Friday in terms of % of vote, so it's a reasonable expectation to think Dems win in-person early vote today.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@Monstro, when pulling the EV numbers,  I’d recommend verifying (unless you already are) the state count with each county. Webb’s ElPaso’s and Harris are undercounted on the state’s website by several thousand each.

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

After this morning's data from the Florida DOE we can see further advancement (albeit a little slower for Ds) toward the 2016 EV Total

Dem  46.0% (+2.8 )
Rep   40.2% (+3.5)
NPA   29.8% (+2.4)

As I have said, no need to even look at the R number (unless they were blowing Ds out), they will get their 80-81% in the end.  Just need to make sure Ds match it this year.  Currently with roughly 3% gains a day they will achieve this statewide sometime Tuesday, a full week ahead of the election...  Hot Take: Put down the Xanax.




In terms of Counties, 12 of 68 counties have already achieved last years EV Turnout including suburb type Pasco and Sarasota Counties.  Look for large Palm Beach and bellwether Pinellas to hit them today.  Yes, there is work to be done in Miami-Dade, Broward and Orange....but plenty of time....and already better than where they were at this time in 2016.

[tagimaucia]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320357683040571392

[cwh2018]

Florida Turnout Tracker

After this morning's data from the Florida DOE we can see further advancement (albeit a little slower for Ds) toward the 2016 EV Total

Dem  46.0% (+2.8 )
Rep   40.2% (+3.5)
NPA   29.8% (+2.4)

As I have said, no need to even look at the R number (unless they were blowing Ds out), they will get their 80-81% in the end.  Just need to make sure Ds match it this year.  Currently with roughly 3% gains a day they will achieve this statewide sometime Tuesday, a full week ahead of the election...  Hot Take: Put down the Xanax.




In terms of Counties, 12 of 68 counties have already achieved last years EV Turnout including suburb type Pasco and Sarasota Counties.  Look for large Palm Beach and bellwether Pinellas to hit them today.  Yes, there is work to be done in Miami-Dade, Broward and Orange....but plenty of time....and already better than where they were at this time in 2016.

Is there an issue with Seminole county, it is the lowest on all measures so far.  It is it a younger population county?

[cwh2018]

What sort of numbers returned by mail do people expect by say next weekend to feel comfortbale with the process for dems.   Next question, what sort of return rates do you expect in states that mailed people ballots for the first time? obviously you have a good idea with states that use mail-in already like Colorado, I am just curious how people think a state like California or New Jersey who sent everyone a ballot, regardless of whether they requested one or not looks this time.  My guesstimate for California is 15-15.5 million

[tagimaucia]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320357683040571392