AJC/UGA - GA: Ossoff +1
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Author Topic: AJC/UGA - GA: Ossoff +1  (Read 1249 times)
Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« on: October 26, 2020, 05:07:49 AM »
« edited: October 26, 2020, 05:17:58 AM by Penn_Quaker_Girl »

(Oct. 14-23 // 1,145 LV // MOE:  4%)

CLASS II:

Ossoff (D) 46% (+1.5)
Perdue (R) 45% (-2.0)
Hazel (L) 4% (+0.5)
Undecided 5% (n/c)

CLASS III:

Warnock (D) 34% (+14)
Collins (R) 21% (+0.5)
Loeffler (R) 20% (-1.5)
Slowinski (L) 4% (+1.0)
Undecided 14% (-2.5)

*Rounded changes based on poll conducted from Sep. 11-20*

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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2020, 05:19:55 AM »

Now THIS would floor me. Biden I guess I can fathom in a crazy scenario, the senate races I just canít picture ...

So the special is really 41-38 GOP with 14 undecided
(Am I reading that right?)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2020, 05:33:08 AM »

I think Ossoff will get the plurality but it's becoming increasingly likely that both races go to a runoff
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2020, 05:59:51 AM »

I think 53 seats is now the most realistic outcome for Democrats (AZ, CO, ME, NC, IA, GA, GA-S, minus AL).
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VAR
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2020, 07:16:44 AM »

Lieberman (D) 4%
Tarver (D) 1%
Other 2%
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Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2020, 07:51:44 AM »

I think Ossoff will get the plurality but it's becoming increasingly likely that both races go to a runoff
Perdue/Ossoff is not going to a runoff.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2020, 08:19:25 AM »

Funny to see Osoff winning by a wider margin than Biden, who is tied with Trump in this same poll. Tilt R; I feel like the runoff ill end up screwing us up.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2020, 08:25:41 AM »

I think 53 seats is now the most realistic outcome for Democrats (AZ, CO, ME, NC, IA, GA, GA-S, minus AL).
Probably more like 52, with the Democrats winning Montana, but losing Michigan and GA-S.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2020, 08:30:44 AM »

I think Ossoff will get the plurality but it's becoming increasingly likely that both races go to a runoff
Perdue/Ossoff is not going to a runoff.

Why not? There have been scant polls with either of them over 50, most are decently under 50 for both of them. It's certainly a possibility that it won't, but it feels like it wouldn't be surprising for like a 49-48-3 vote or something.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2020, 08:38:18 AM »

I think 53 seats is now the most realistic outcome for Democrats (AZ, CO, ME, NC, IA, GA, GA-S, minus AL).
Probably more like 52, with the Democrats winning Montana, but losing Michigan and GA-S.

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Sirius_
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2020, 09:03:26 AM »

Now THIS would floor me. Biden I guess I can fathom in a crazy scenario, the senate races I just canít picture ...

So the special is really 41-38 GOP with 14 undecided
(Am I reading that right?)
In almost any case I would say that's way too many undecided but I bet the jungle primary probably confuses a lot of people and some people might not even vote in it and just vote for whoever the D/R is in the runoff election.
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Figueira
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2020, 10:40:26 AM »

Now THIS would floor me. Biden I guess I can fathom in a crazy scenario, the senate races I just canít picture ...

So the special is really 41-38 GOP with 14 undecided
(Am I reading that right?)
In almost any case I would say that's way too many undecided but I bet the jungle primary probably confuses a lot of people and some people might not even vote in it and just vote for whoever the D/R is in the runoff election.

I would guess that most are undecided about which Democrat/Republican to vote for, rather than undecided about whether to vote for a Democrat or a Republican. Given that Warnock has mostly cleared the Democratic field, it seems more likely that the undecideds are mostly Republicans.
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2020, 10:54:00 AM »

I think 53 seats is now the most realistic outcome for Democrats (AZ, CO, ME, NC, IA, GA, GA-S, minus AL).
Probably more like 52, with the Democrats winning Montana, but losing Michigan and GA-S.

Peters will not lose
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Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2020, 10:58:52 AM »

I think Ossoff will get the plurality but it's becoming increasingly likely that both races go to a runoff
Perdue/Ossoff is not going to a runoff.

Why not? There have been scant polls with either of them over 50, most are decently under 50 for both of them. It's certainly a possibility that it won't, but it feels like it wouldn't be surprising for like a 49-48-3 vote or something.
The Libertarian numbers are just noise. Ossoff will clear 50 percent.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2020, 04:03:32 PM »

I think Ossoff will get the plurality but it's becoming increasingly likely that both races go to a runoff
Perdue/Ossoff is not going to a runoff.

Why not? There have been scant polls with either of them over 50, most are decently under 50 for both of them. It's certainly a possibility that it won't, but it feels like it wouldn't be surprising for like a 49-48-3 vote or something.
The Libertarian numbers are just noise. Ossoff will clear 50 percent.

Why are you so confident in this? You were supremely confident about Stacey Abrams' chances in 2018, and we saw how that turned out. Now, I'm not going to dismiss the possibility of this entirely, especially since I've been thinking for some time that Biden will pull off a victory here.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2020, 04:48:43 PM »

Nutworthy. Please pull through, Georgia.
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Wrenchmob
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2020, 04:51:14 PM »

I still think it's going to a runoff which Perdue wins.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2020, 11:22:55 PM »

New Poll: Georgia Senator by University of Georgia/AJC on 2020-10-23

Summary: D: 46%, R: 45%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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