Trafalgar OUT at 538.

[Wiz in Wis]

Looks like Nate dropped all Trafalgar polls from the model.

https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1320545200469610497

[Hammy]

If you want your polls to be taken seriously, don't be secretive with the data when it's questioned. Lack of transparency is a big red flag.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm considering this too, but I've decided against it for now.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

They haven't pulled all of the Trafalgar polls, I still see a North Carolina one up, but clearly something is going on.

[Asta]

I hate Trafalgar as much as anyone but I don't know about excluding them. Unless Silver is completely confident in knowing that their data is fabricated, it goes against his principle that, whether it is in line with his expectation or not, you have to throw it into the average.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I hate Trafalgar as much as anyone but I don't know about excluding them. Unless Silver is completely confident in knowing that their data is fabricated, it goes against his principle that, whether it is in line with his expectation or not, you have to throw it into the average.

He's been stating pretty plainly for a few days that he thinks they are deciding on a result in advance and then unscientifically manipulating their data to force it to match.

[Alben Barkley]

Economist did the same, Biden now at 95%.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1320535916470018050?s=21

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

538 has only got rid of the batch with the funky crosstabs. RCP doesn't have those ones, either, but they both still have the rest.

[ExSky]

It has become flagrantly obvious that they fudge the data to show what they want. Shouldn’t be considered a real pollster

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Good and they should stop being posted as well.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Good and they should stop being posted as well.

As long as 538 keeps posting new ones - and there's no indication they won't - it seems better than not to put them up here.

[Rand]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[Wiz in Wis]

Apparently the ones from today were not real, and we should drop them from the database here as well:

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1320516124044382208

[ProgressiveModerate]

Apparently the ones from today were not real, and we should drop them from the database here as well:

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1320516124044382208

So they're admitting to making fake polls?

[Alben Barkley]

Apparently the ones from today were not real, and we should drop them from the database here as well:

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1320516124044382208

But they WERE posted there. They deleted them and the links went dead after Nate called them out.

Not to mention this guy spent all day defending those polls so...

The safest assumption is that ALL their polls are fake garbage. Always has been, really, this is just effectively confirmation.

Good and they should stop being posted as well.

As long as 538 keeps posting new ones - and there's no indication they won't - it seems better than not to put them up here.

I kinda doubt Nate will post new ones after this. But we’ll see.

[Hammy]

So wait, they're claiming the polls were fabrications and not actually theirs because they're not on their website, even though they were earlier?

[Badger]

So wait, they're claiming the polls were fabrications and not actually theirs because they're not on their website, even though they were earlier?

[KaiserDave]

Trafalgar is a malarkey factory? Really? Really??? Wow! Shocked! Stunned! Unbelievable!

[NOVA Green]

Throw them out, toss them into the trash heaps or garbage bin, toss a match in afterwards and walk away cool and confident knowing that this the Ultra Uber "Fake News" and "Baghdad Bob" is always claiming a River in Egypt.

Meanwhile we are on-topic, these polls belong in the "Dustbins of History", along with extremely flawed and crazy White Supremacist ideology from Nazi Germany to the Traitor States of the Deep South.

Junk them all and we're not losing any real data...   "NAZIs Raus" was a street chant in Demos I marched in through precincts in East Berlin nach dem Wende

[Asta]

So wait, they're claiming the polls were fabrications and not actually theirs because they're not on their website, even though they were earlier?

I just took a look at their AZ, FL and MI poll and I'm keeping an open mind that it may not be theirs. At least according to Cahaly, they don't do polls with more than 1000 LV. All of those polls had sample size of fewer than 1000.

But why they would have posted it on their site to begin with is a mystery unless someone is internally trying to smear them.

[Alben Barkley]

So wait, they're claiming the polls were fabrications and not actually theirs because they're not on their website, even though they were earlier?

I just took a look at their AZ, FL and MI poll and I'm keeping an open mind that it may not be theirs. At least according to Cahaly, they don't do polls with more than 1000 LV. All of those polls had sample size of fewer than 1000.

But why they would have posted it on their site to begin with is a mystery unless someone is internally trying to smear them.

COME ON.

Not only did they post it, they also spent all day bashing Nate Silver for calling them out and trying to justify their numbers with “Because 50 Cent” level BS.

It is OBVIOUS these polls were theirs and now they’re trying to walk it back. Don’t take the bait, don’t let yourself be gaslit.

[pbrower2a]

If you want your polls to be taken seriously, don't be secretive with the data when it's questioned. Lack of transparency is a big red flag.

Precisely. If Trafalgar Group were on the up-and-up it would admit that its polls are counterintuitive in view of multitudes of other polls and give clear explanations of a cause of the difference. It might be so simple as assuming an electorate modeled after 2010 or 2014 (which was possible this year, but seems not to be happening). Trafalgar would then draw attention for the right reasons and compel people to rethink this election.

I have rejected Trafalgar before Silver did. Other pollsters can have outliers that self-refute with the next poll by the same pollster. Thus it is possible to have Biden up 7 in Michigan in one poll, then up 2, then up 8. Obviously change in the dynamic of the race shows first in outliers (as happened in 2016) that first seem daring absurdities until other polls get similar results. This said, the outliers are as likely to come from different sources .

So suppose that a poll by Oregon NPR showed that Biden is up only 2%, which would be a real shocker. Others will check Oregon, which gets polled little... and other pollsters will ratify such if such is reality.

Polling at its best can show indications of a collapse in an environment (rigid polarization of the electorate) makes such unlikely except under freakish circumstances. Trafalgar seems to tell some people exactly what they want to believe -- that Donald Trump really has a chance even if he has no objective chance of winning.  

[Gass3268]

So wait, they're claiming the polls were fabrications and not actually theirs because they're not on their website, even though they were earlier?

I just took a look at their AZ, FL and MI poll and I'm keeping an open mind that it may not be theirs. At least according to Cahaly, they don't do polls with more than 1000 LV. All of those polls had sample size of fewer than 1000.

But why they would have posted it on their site to begin with is a mystery unless someone is internally trying to smear them.

COME ON.

Not only did they post it, they also spent all day bashing Nate Silver for calling them out and trying to justify their numbers with “Because 50 Cent” level BS.

It is OBVIOUS these polls were theirs and now they’re trying to walk it back. Don’t take the bait, don’t let yourself be gaslit.

Here is proof!

https://twitter.com/neyebio/status/1320551261276700672?s=21

They were defending this nonsense at first.

[tagimaucia]

When someone actually posted fake Trafalgar polls a few months ago as a joke, Cahaly immediately freaked out about it on twitter. Why wouldn’t the same thing have happened right away if these weren’t the genuine article?

[cinyc]

So wait, they're claiming the polls were fabrications and not actually theirs because they're not on their website, even though they were earlier?

Were today's MI/FL/AZ Trafalgar polls on Trafalgar's actual website earlier though? The only link I've found to them on Twitter is to a now-dead Google Drive document, not their website.

Something is very fishy here.