Which Senate upset is more likely?

[MassTerp94]

IMO Espy seems more likely. Little attention is paid to Mississippi because it’s so ruby red presidentially, but the high turnout and demographics could allow Espy to eke out a win. Even Jones has an outside but remote chance.

[Red Wall]

Jones albeit Espy will get one more % point (39 to 38)

[Xing]

Epsy, in the same way that Republicans are more likely to flip NM than OR.

[7,052,770]

Espy due to demographics, but neither is likely to happen.

[fluffypanther19]

Espy due to demographics, but neither is likely to happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both are gonna lose

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Doug Jones

[Hope For A New Era]

Jones. Mississippi is too polarized.

[MarkD]

Both are going to lose, but Jones has a slightly greater chance to win than Espy because of two reasons: 1) he's white, and 2) he's an incumbent.

[Stuart98]

Espy has the benefit of an electorate that's more demographically favorable and his opponent being asleep at the wheel.

[Mr. Smith]

Jones. Mississippi is too polarized.

Also Tuberville doesn't have incumbency to hide a general lack of talent.

[DINGO Joe]

Tuberville is a useless dink, while Hyde-Smith is just pure trash.  Not the point of this thread, but I actually would rather see Hyde-Smith lose.  Jones probably has a slightly better shot.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The fundamentals would suggest Jones because of his incumbency, but we've had very little recent polling out of MS so there's a bit more uncertainty.