GA, IA, MI - Opinion Insight (R): Biden +4, Biden +2, Biden +9
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November 26, 2021, 07:29:54 PM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE)
  GA, IA, MI - Opinion Insight (R): Biden +4, Biden +2, Biden +9
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Author Topic: GA, IA, MI - Opinion Insight (R): Biden +4, Biden +2, Biden +9  (Read 2038 times)
VAR
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« on: October 23, 2020, 02:25:18 PM »
« edited: October 23, 2020, 02:31:50 PM by Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds »



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Asta
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2020, 02:27:20 PM »

I'm becoming more optimistic about Biden's chance in GA.
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2020, 02:27:39 PM »

Lean R.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2020, 02:27:49 PM »

Imagine Biden wins with this map:

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Crumpets
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2020, 02:28:26 PM »

November 3rd is a little late for Jimmy Carter's birthday, but I think I know what we should get him as a country.
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compucomp
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2020, 02:28:37 PM »

This is an R internal? How the hell did it get released? In any case, it calls for a certain quote:

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2020, 02:29:16 PM »

They also have Biden up 2 in Iowa and up 9 in Michigan.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2020, 02:29:42 PM »

This is an R internal? How the hell did it get released? In any case, it calls for a certain quote:

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Glad to see new users are already learning the ropes.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2020, 02:30:58 PM »

Anyone else finds it funny

(1) Biden is polling better in Georgia then Wisconsin and Michigan
(2) I told ya'll this was occurring (like 3 months ago). The +7 was not an outlier.
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Butlerian Jihad
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2020, 02:31:06 PM »

Why would a Republican pollster doing this as an internal release it?!
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Reluctant hardcore partisan Darthpi
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2020, 02:31:23 PM »

Wow.

Wonder if this is enough to push Biden back into the lead in Georgia on 538.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2020, 02:31:36 PM »

Anyone else finds it funny

(1) Biden is polling better in Georgia then Wisconsin and Michigan
(2) I told ya'll this was occurring (like 3 months ago). The +7 was not an outlier.

You spoke way too soon; same poll has Biden up 9 in Michigan.

Also Biden is doing better in the averages of both than Georgia.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2020, 02:32:37 PM »

Anyone else finds it funny

(1) Biden is polling better in Georgia then Wisconsin and Michigan
(2) I told ya'll this was occurring (like 3 months ago). The +7 was not an outlier.

You spoke way too soon; same poll has Biden up 9 in Michigan.

Also Biden is doing better in the averages of both than Georgia.

Michigan polling routnley overstates Democrats by massive margins.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2020, 02:33:12 PM »


Sounding the alarm?

Otherwise IDK.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2020, 02:33:27 PM »


How can all 3 be lean R at once?
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redjohn
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« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2020, 02:33:34 PM »

I've been saying for months that Biden will win GA and GA will vote to the left of FL+NC. Exciting result; GA is going to flip this cycle.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2020, 02:34:50 PM »

Peach Joe! Soybean Joe! GM Joe!

Wow, a Republican pollster has Uncle Joe up in Georgia by four? Trump is toast, folks.
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Ljube
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« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2020, 02:34:55 PM »

These polls are old and hence irrelevant.
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compucomp
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« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2020, 02:35:10 PM »


This is flat out delusional. I can think of two reasons why an R organization would release this Georgia poll:

1. The R organization sees the signs on the ground or has gotten back many poll results like this, knows they're in trouble, and releases this to scare complacent R voters into voting.

2. They really think this is a good result for the R side.

Neither of these says Georgia leans R.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2020, 02:35:57 PM »

Anyone else finds it funny

(1) Biden is polling better in Georgia then Wisconsin and Michigan
(2) I told ya'll this was occurring (like 3 months ago). The +7 was not an outlier.

You spoke way too soon; same poll has Biden up 9 in Michigan.

Also Biden is doing better in the averages of both than Georgia.

Michigan polling overstates Democrats (as does Wisconsin and Minnesota).

GA/MI/WI will vote similar
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2020, 02:36:54 PM »

GA flipped in 538 forecast:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/georgia/
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redjohn
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« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2020, 02:37:42 PM »

Anyone else finds it funny

(1) Biden is polling better in Georgia then Wisconsin and Michigan
(2) I told ya'll this was occurring (like 3 months ago). The +7 was not an outlier.

You spoke way too soon; same poll has Biden up 9 in Michigan.

Also Biden is doing better in the averages of both than Georgia.

Michigan polling overstates Democrats (as does Wisconsin and Minnesota).

GA/MI/WI will vote similar

For the billionth time, WI polling does not overstate Democrats, it just slightly understates Republicans in some statewide races. Democrats over-performed their polling in WI-Sen in 2018.
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Reluctant hardcore partisan Darthpi
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« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2020, 02:38:05 PM »

Do we have a link to that Iowa poll?
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2020, 02:38:26 PM »

Anyone else finds it funny

(1) Biden is polling better in Georgia then Wisconsin and Michigan
(2) I told ya'll this was occurring (like 3 months ago). The +7 was not an outlier.

You spoke way too soon; same poll has Biden up 9 in Michigan.

Also Biden is doing better in the averages of both than Georgia.

Michigan polling overstates Democrats (as does Wisconsin and Minnesota).

GA/MI/WI will vote similar

And your evidence for this is...Huh

It did in 2016? Well it didn't in 2018, 2014, or 2012. And even in 2016, most of that came down to undecideds breaking for Trump, and there aren't nearly as many this time to do that.
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VAR
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« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2020, 02:38:47 PM »

Do we have a link to that Iowa poll?

https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/iowa-policy-priorities-and-the-election-october-update/

Ernst leads by 1%.
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