TN - Cygnal: Hagerty +20
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  TN - Cygnal: Hagerty +20
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Author Topic: TN - Cygnal: Hagerty +20  (Read 701 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« on: October 23, 2020, 01:00:28 PM »

Oct 20-22, 610 LV, MoE: 4%

Hagerty (R) 56%
Bradshaw (D) 36%
Other 2%
Undecided 7%

GCB: 58-39 R

Favorabilities:
Lee - 49/27 (+22)
Hagerty - 46/23 (+23)
Bradshaw - 28/10 (+18)

https://www.cygn.al/cygnal-poll-hagerty-up-20-points-in-tn-senate-race/
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WD
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2020, 01:10:44 PM »

Safe R race is Safe R
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2020, 01:12:22 PM »

TN is too red, we are getting lots of polls except ME and both ME 2 and NEB 2 are irregular
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FalterinArc
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2020, 01:22:18 PM »

Would actually be a decent result for Bradshaw. That said, titanium R.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2020, 01:41:28 PM »

Reminder that Tennessee tends to have one of the most extreme polling misses showing too good of results for the Democrats.  That was true in both 2016 and 2018, as well as in elections like 2006, where Corker was the only Republican to win a Senate race considered a tossup that year.

Probably something like 63-35 Hagerty at the end of the day.
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Pollster
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2020, 01:52:19 PM »

Reminder that Tennessee tends to have one of the most extreme polling misses showing too good of results for the Democrats.

Only if you focus solely on margins. Polls nailed Clinton and Bredesen's ceilings, while undecideds went to the Republicans in both cases (as they normally do in safe red states).
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2020, 03:47:25 PM »

Reminder that Tennessee tends to have one of the most extreme polling misses showing too good of results for the Democrats.  That was true in both 2016 and 2018, as well as in elections like 2006, where Corker was the only Republican to win a Senate race considered a tossup that year.

Probably something like 63-35 Hagerty at the end of the day.

Do you think Williamson will be closer in this senate race than 2016 prez?
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Harry
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2020, 04:50:58 PM »

How would Bredesen have done this year? 10 point loss? Would we be putting him in the category with Hegar or McGrath?
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2020, 05:02:49 PM »

Reminder that Tennessee tends to have one of the most extreme polling misses showing too good of results for the Democrats.  That was true in both 2016 and 2018, as well as in elections like 2006, where Corker was the only Republican to win a Senate race considered a tossup that year.

Probably something like 63-35 Hagerty at the end of the day.

Do you think Williamson will be closer in this senate race than 2016 prez?

Williamson will have a significant number of Biden-Hagerty voters, so it depends on how much you expect Williamson to trend.  I've been saying that Williamson is going to surprise a lot of people by not trending a whole lot (as it hasn't really swung further to the left relative to TN in post-2016 races).  Bill Lee also exceeded Trump's percentage in Williamson County despite being 5 points off his percentage statewide.

My thought for both WillCo and statwide:

Senate: WillCo: Hagerty 68, Bradshaw 30; Statewide: Hagerty 63, Bradshaw 35 (WC: R+10)
President: WillCo: Trump 62, Biden 36; Statewide: Trump 59, Biden 39 (WC: R+6)
2016: WillCo: Trump 64, Clinton 29; Statewide: Trump 61, Clinton 35 (WC: R+9)

I think Biden wins the NPV by about 8 points (6 point swing), which would mean that Williamson County's swing of 9 points would qualify as a Democratic trend, but only a small one.  I expect Rutherford to swing the furthest left of all of the Suburban Nashville counties, as there is more of a core base of Democratic support present in Rutherford already.
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2020, 05:08:50 PM »

How would Bredesen have done this year? 10 point loss? Would we be putting him in the category with Hegar or McGrath?

He lost to Blackburn by 12 in 2018. I imagine it would be a worse showing for the Dem in a presidential election year. Though GOP performance here was helped along by the Dem mismanagement of the Kavanaugh situation.
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MR. ANTHONY DEVOLDER
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2020, 05:10:03 PM »

In other news, grass is green.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2020, 05:21:59 PM »

Also, I looked through the crosstabs and the "Titanium R Gen Z" meme is back (they broke it out by generation in addition to age but had a tiny sample size for Gen Z):

"Traditionalists": Hagerty +38
Boomers: Hagerty +25
Gen X: Hagerty +10
Millennials: Hagerty +8
Gen Z: Hagerty +70

Normal Age Ranges are weird too, but slightly less maybe:
65+: Hagerty +25
50-64: Hagerty +31
35-49: Tie
18-34: Hagerty +22

Also found some weird crosstabs like Bradshaw barely being ahead in TN-9, but all of these are probably sample size at that point.

Finally, I wonder why they didn't ask about the presidential race.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2020, 05:47:00 PM »

Reminder that Tennessee tends to have one of the most extreme polling misses showing too good of results for the Democrats.  That was true in both 2016 and 2018, as well as in elections like 2006, where Corker was the only Republican to win a Senate race considered a tossup that year.

Probably something like 63-35 Hagerty at the end of the day.

Do you think Williamson will be closer in this senate race than 2016 prez?

Williamson will have a significant number of Biden-Hagerty voters, so it depends on how much you expect Williamson to trend.  I've been saying that Williamson is going to surprise a lot of people by not trending a whole lot (as it hasn't really swung further to the left relative to TN in post-2016 races).  Bill Lee also exceeded Trump's percentage in Williamson County despite being 5 points off his percentage statewide.

My thought for both WillCo and statwide:

Senate: WillCo: Hagerty 68, Bradshaw 30; Statewide: Hagerty 63, Bradshaw 35 (WC: R+10)
President: WillCo: Trump 62, Biden 36; Statewide: Trump 59, Biden 39 (WC: R+6)
2016: WillCo: Trump 64, Clinton 29; Statewide: Trump 61, Clinton 35 (WC: R+9)

I think Biden wins the NPV by about 8 points (6 point swing), which would mean that Williamson County's swing of 9 points would qualify as a Democratic trend, but only a small one.  I expect Rutherford to swing the furthest left of all of the Suburban Nashville counties, as there is more of a core base of Democratic support present in Rutherford already.

So the answer is no, as williamson was +35 trump in 2016 but +38 hagerty in your prediction. If Trump only wins Tennessee 59-39, he is f#cked though. That is literally even a fraction of a point worse than Romney 2012 in an R trending state.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2020, 05:52:04 PM »

Safe R, nothing special here
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2020, 06:03:18 PM »

Williamson is your stereotypical Republican rich pro-police, pro-military, Jesus is Lord area

Hagerty will win.

Hagerty will be on a GOP ticket to help with foreign policy
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Lief 🐋
Lief
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2020, 02:44:34 PM »

New Poll: Tennessee Senator by Cygnal on 2020-10-22

Summary: D: 36%, R: 56%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2020, 12:38:56 AM »

D's blew this race when Mackler lost, he had Bullock appeal, they nominated the far leftie in this race
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Stuart98
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« Reply #17 on: October 25, 2020, 06:11:20 AM »

D's blew this race when Mackler lost, he had Bullock appeal, they nominated the far leftie in this race
If you have $2 million and you can't even get second in a senate primary that speaks poorly to your ability as a candidate.
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