Reminder that Tennessee tends to have one of the most extreme polling misses showing too good of results for the Democrats. That was true in both 2016 and 2018, as well as in elections like 2006, where Corker was the only Republican to win a Senate race considered a tossup that year.
Probably something like 63-35 Hagerty at the end of the day.
Do you think Williamson will be closer in this senate race than 2016 prez?
Williamson will have a significant number of Biden-Hagerty voters, so it depends on how much you expect Williamson to trend. I've been saying that Williamson is going to surprise a lot of people by not trending a whole lot (as it hasn't really swung further to the left relative to TN in post-2016 races). Bill Lee also exceeded Trump's percentage in Williamson County despite being 5 points off his percentage statewide.
My thought for both WillCo and statwide:
Senate: WillCo: Hagerty 68, Bradshaw 30; Statewide: Hagerty 63, Bradshaw 35 (WC: R+10)
President: WillCo: Trump 62, Biden 36; Statewide: Trump 59, Biden 39 (WC: R+6)
2016: WillCo: Trump 64, Clinton 29; Statewide: Trump 61, Clinton 35 (WC: R+9)
I think Biden wins the NPV by about 8 points (6 point swing), which would mean that Williamson County's swing of 9 points would qualify as a Democratic trend, but only a small one. I expect Rutherford to swing the furthest left of all of the Suburban Nashville counties, as there is more of a core base of Democratic support present in Rutherford already.
