MT-NYT/Siena: Daines +3 | Rosendale +4
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  MT-NYT/Siena: Daines +3 | Rosendale +4
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Author Topic: MT-NYT/Siena: Daines +3 | Rosendale +4  (Read 1006 times)
VARep
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« on: October 23, 2020, 12:05:18 PM »

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VARep
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2020, 12:07:14 PM »

Crosstabs: https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/mt101820-crosstabs/1bf52689f78606b4/full.pdf
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2020, 12:07:39 PM »

This race is going to be close. Good poll for Daines and Rosendale, surprisingly bad poll for Gianforte. But if Daines is really running along with Trump he should be fine.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2020, 12:09:11 PM »

This race is going to be close. Good poll for Daines and Rosendale, surprisingly bad poll for Gianforte. But if Daines is really running along with Trump he should be fine.

Nothing surprisingly bad about it for Gianforte, honestly. He was never going to win by more than 4-5 points or outperform Daines by more than 2-3 and the undecideds in that race always leaned Democratic.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2020, 12:09:55 PM »

This race is going to be close. Good poll for Daines and Rosendale, surprisingly bad poll for Gianforte. But if Daines is really running along with Trump he should be fine.

Nothing surprisingly bad about it for Gianforte, honestly. He was never going to win by more than 4-5 points or outperform Daines by more than 2-3 and the undecideds in that race always leaned Democratic.

I only mean in comparison to other polls. I don't expect Greg to win by more than 3.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2020, 12:09:58 PM »

This race is going to be close. Good poll for Daines and Rosendale, surprisingly bad poll for Gianforte. But if Daines is really running along with Trump he should be fine.


It's a 291/334 race and 51/55 seat majority for D's, 70/65M votes is the projection that D's are expected to gain


There is a difference between predicting and projections
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(Temporary) Florida Man Xing
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2020, 12:13:23 PM »

Interesting that the gap is so much smaller between the races in this poll. A good poll for Daines to be sure, though it seems Siena has found better results for Republicans than other pollsters (doesn't necessarily mean that they're wrong, just an observation.)
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VARep
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2020, 12:16:13 PM »

Favorabilities:
Bullock: 52/43 (+9)
Daines: 50/44 (+6)
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Brittain33
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2020, 12:16:38 PM »

My brain knows Daines is favored but my heart is going to insist it's a toss-up.
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TheTide
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2020, 12:17:14 PM »

Impressive uniformity here.
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Mr. Kanye West
olawakandi
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2020, 12:17:44 PM »

AZ, CO, GA, IA, ME, NC and SC are probably what Ds will get 53/47, winning only 1 of the runoffs
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2020, 12:19:05 PM »

Favorabilities:
Bullock: 52/43 (+9)
Daines: 50/44 (+6)

Decent numbers for Bullock. This race is going to be close.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2020, 12:21:21 PM »

Is Montana the only state in the country with races for President, Senate, Governor, and House in which it is at least conceivable either party sweeps all of them? North Carolina comes close maybe, but I donít think Cooper can lose plus they donít have just one House district.
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Senator Scott, PPT
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2020, 12:25:01 PM »

Assholes.

Wouldn't surprise me if the MOE favors the Republicans in the end. Being a Republican is kind of like being gay in the 1950's: you wouldn't admit it to anyone not already in your circle, but you secretly love taking it up the ass by other men/the GOP.
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VARep
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« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2020, 12:27:07 PM »

Regional breakdown:
Bozeman/Missoula (n=174): 55-39 Bullock (49-44 Biden)
East (n=121): 61-32 Daines (60-29 Trump)
Helena/Great Falls (n=106): 54-45 Daines (51-46 Trump)
West (n=250): 52-41 Daines (52-41 Trump)
Yellowstone (n=106): 58-38 Bullock (50-37 Biden)

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Pollster
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« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2020, 12:29:48 PM »

The crosstabs show Bullock up 58/38 in Yellowstone, which is outside of the margin of error of even the subsample that is slightly over 100. Kathleen Williams has an even more massive lead.
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Mr. Kanye West
olawakandi
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« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2020, 12:30:17 PM »

Assholes.

Wouldn't surprise me if the MOE favors the Republicans in the end. Being a Republican is kind of like being gay in the 1950's: you wouldn't admit it to anyone not already in your circle, but you secretly love taking it up the ass by other men/the GOP.

www.electionprojection.com has MT R leaning
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2020, 12:30:31 PM »

The crosstabs show Bullock up 58/38 in Yellowstone, which is outside of the margin of error of even the subsample that is slightly over 100.

Whaaaaaaaaat

IndyRep please explain Smiley
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Pollster
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« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2020, 12:33:11 PM »

The crosstabs show Bullock up 58/38 in Yellowstone, which is outside of the margin of error of even the subsample that is slightly over 100.

Whaaaaaaaaat

IndyRep please explain Smiley

Assuming its a representative subsample (no guarantee), the most favorable outcome for Daines based on the MOE of a subsample of 106 is 49/47ish Bullock.
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Mr. Kanye West
olawakandi
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« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2020, 12:37:26 PM »

I thought MT Treasure was IndyRep but then again I thought Politician, whom haven't logged on since, June, along with Icespear was MT Treasurer we don't know whom is a sock
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Western Democrat
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« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2020, 12:50:35 PM »

I thought MT Treasure was IndyRep but then again I thought Politician, whom haven't logged on since, June, along with Icespear was MT Treasurer we don't know whom is a sock

wut
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(Temporary) Florida Man Xing
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« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2020, 01:02:00 PM »

Let's not put too much stock in the crosstabs. There is no way Bullock in winning Yellowstone by anything like 20, or that he's only winning Missoula by 16.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2020, 01:09:28 PM »

Unless they ended up somewhere near West Yellowstone/Yellowstone National Park, my guess is that their sample is heavily skewed toward Billings' urban core (the outskirts and outlying communities are more Republican) because thereís no feasible path for a Republican to win the "East" by 29 points while losing Yellowstone County (much less while losing Yellowstone County by 20 points), period. Itís obviously off, but Iím one to believe that paying too much attention to subsamples is a fool's errand, especially when the overall result is believable as it is in this case.

Unless there are legions of bipartisan Tester/Daines or neoliberal Biden/Daines voters in Missoula/Bozeman/Helena, thereís no way Daines wins statewide if he doesnít carry Yellowstone by at least 5 points (and thatís being very generous to him and assuming he can reduce the Democratic margin in Missoula/Gallatin by 5+ points, which isnít implausible but no guarantee, especially in the case of Missoula). If I were Daines, Iíd be very nervous about anything less than 7-point win out of Yellowstone County. Rosendale lost statewide by 3.5 and won Yellowstone by the same margin, and itís not like he had unique appeal to the county or anything (if anything, his result was a R underperformance).
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« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2020, 01:11:19 PM »

Bullock has to finish it pounding hard. No stops, no oil
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2020, 01:15:49 PM »

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/mt101820-crosstabs/1bf52689f78606b4/full.pdf

October 18-20
758 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with September 14-16

Senate
Daines 49% (+4)
Bullock 46% (+2)
Someone else 1% (n/c) (+1)
Not voting for Senate 0% (But some voters) (-1)
Don't know/Refused 5% (-1)

Frederickson (G) previously at 4%.

House
Rosendale 50% (+9)
Williams 46% (+2)
Not voting for U.S. House 1% (n/c)
Someone else 0% (But some voters) (n/c)
Don't know/Refused 3% (-7)

Gibney (G) previously at 2%.
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