WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Roll Roons]

Pretty weak candidate. Lost WI-8 in a landslide in 2016.

Running a “strong” candidate still won’t win Dems this seat in a Biden midterm.

Depends. Against Johnson, there might be a small opening. Against Gallagher? Hell no.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/MarkPocan/status/1335784970858729477

Hmm...

[Roll Roons]

I don’t know much about Nelson, but if he’s well-liked in the Fox Valley that would be helpful.

He's supposedly a popular county executive, but lost his own county to Mike Gallagher by 18 points in 2016.

Also, Johnson said his 2022 plans were contingent on Georgia. He seems to imply that he'll retire if Republicans hold the Senate and run if they don't.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2021/02/16/bucks-executive-alex-lasry-enters-u-s-senate-race-wisconsin/6769241002/

Bucks executive Alex Lasry has joined the race. I know it worked for Herb Kohl, but I have a feeling that if this guy wins the nomination, he'll turn out to be the Democratic version of Kelly Loeffler. Maybe he can self-fund, but as we saw in 2020, boatloads of cash only takes you so far. It'll be too easy to paint him as a spoiled rich carpetbagger.

[Roll Roons]

She'd be a much better candidate than the rich carpetbagger.

[Roll Roons]

Imagine touting that endorsement and wanting to be considering a serious candidate.

[Roll Roons]

https://wisconsinexaminer.com/brief/johnson-pushes-ivermectin-and-vaccine-conspiracies-while-local-officials-look-for-help-on-infrastructure/

Johnson is still probably a (very slight) favorite, but he's really not doing himself any favors. What's he even getting at with all of these insane comments?

[Roll Roons]

You cannot take this night from Sarah Godlewski.

[Roll Roons]

As is almost always the case in WI, the national environment will tell the tale (although I maintain Barnes is a weak enough candidate that he’d underperform by a few points even in a good year).  That really tells you all you need to know about who will win.

Why do you think Mandela is a weak candidate?

As others have explained elsewhere, he’s a pretty divisive figure in Milwaukee AA political circles, he is a terrible fit for both the old WI-3 area and the suburban areas in which we need to keep making inroads (not b/c he’s AA, but b/c he’s said some stuff that will play really badly in those areas), and he’s (IIRC) had a bunch of personal scandals regarding stuff like unpaid taxes and the like. 

He’s arguably our weakest major candidate in a competitive Senate race of the cycle so far.

Completely disagree. Victory in Wisconsin for Democrats hinges on Milwaukee now that they've cratered in support in vast swaths of rural communities.

Milwaukee turnout is certainly important, but margins matter everywhere in a state as close as Wisconsin. Democrats can't get completely killed in WOW, BOW or the rural areas.

[Roll Roons]

Well, I highly doubt he'll get 68% in Waukesha, 65% in Ozaukee or 26% in Dane like he did in 2016. But he probably will do much better in rural areas.

[Roll Roons]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

Johnson is behaving like he's trying to lose...look at Steve Southerland and Lee Terry in 2014. An incumbent can lose in a wave year for their party if they make enough stupid mistakes.

The thing is is that this race could easily be framed as one that may decide control of the Senate and therefore become a referendum on Biden and DC Democrats, rather than being a referendum on what Wisconsin voters think of Ron Johnson. Democrats would need it to be the latter if they want to have a real chance of flipping this seat.