WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Xing]

I could see this race ending up close (decent chance it's within 5%), but I have a hard time seeing Democrats getting those last few percentage points from 47% to 49/50% in this environment. Polls in Wisconsin may have been decent in 2018, but I know better than to get my hopes up for this race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need a poll this is the only race they haven't done a GE poll

[ProgressiveModerate]

I could see this race ending up close (decent chance it's within 5%), but I have a hard time seeing Democrats getting those last few percentage points from 47% to 49/50% in this environment. Polls in Wisconsin may have been decent in 2018, but I know better than to get my hopes up for this race.

Another way to look at this is the reverse: it's hard to see the GOP doing bad enough to lose. In 2020, Biden did decently well with every important WI demographic and only narrowly won the state.

[wbrocks67]

I get people want to give Johnson some incumbency credit or bc its a red wave year, but Johnson is quite literally doing everything he possibly can to tank this race.

If Democrats cant win this race, it would be a total failure on their part, even in this redder environment.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1539311756450971648

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs blocked the Jt Committee because they wanted to protect Ron Johnson that's why he is still favored in this Environment but D's aren't losing WI Johnson never ran with Evers he won both times with Walker as Gov, and MQK poll has him at 37 not 60 percent Favs

[OdonTrail]

Dems need to do everything they can to stop Mandela Barnes from winning the primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Mandela Barnes and Tony Evers defeated Scott Walker in 2018 after Obama endorsed Barnes, Biden isn't gonna step in to stop Barnes D's need the Blk vote in GA with WARNOCK

If Biden tries to stop anyway Blk vote in WI Warnock may lose

[GALeftist]

Dems need to do everything they can to stop Mandela Barnes from winning the primary.

What is the evidence that Lasry would be better than Barnes?

[SnowLabrador]

I get people want to give Johnson some incumbency credit or bc its a red wave year, but Johnson is quite literally doing everything he possibly can to tank this race.

If Democrats cant win this race, it would be a total failure on their part, even in this redder environment.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1539311756450971648

Democrats and failure are synonymous.

[wesmoorenerd]

Dems need to do everything they can to stop Mandela Barnes from winning the primary.

What is the evidence that Lasry would be better than Barnes?

There is none. Barnes may not be a knockout candidate, but Lasry is infinitely worse.

[GALeftist]

Dems need to do everything they can to stop Mandela Barnes from winning the primary.

What is the evidence that Lasry would be better than Barnes?

There is none. Barnes may not be a knockout candidate, but Lasry is infinitely worse.

This is my thinking too. People seem to be really down on Barnes, but it seems like Lasry is the only realistic alternative. I can see convincing arguments for Godlewski who has won statewide (albeit in 2018, and not particularly impressively) and Nelson who has a home base in a pretty red county, but neither seems in a position to win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dems need to do everything they can to stop Mandela Barnes from winning the primary.

What is the evidence that Lasry would be better than Barnes?

There is none. Barnes may not be a knockout candidate, but Lasry is infinitely worse.

This is my thinking too. People seem to be really down on Barnes, but it seems like Lasry is the only realistic alternative. I can see convincing arguments for Godlewski who has won statewide (albeit in 2018, and not particularly impressively) and Nelson who has a home base in a pretty red county, but neither seems in a position to win.

Any shot Ds have at this race will likely be anti-Johnson rather than pro-Barnes.

All I know is Johnson will likely do worse in 2022 in Milwaukee Suburbs even if he does better overall statewide. I'd be curious to see what happens with diftless given Dems residual downballot strength but also the fact Trump had a solid performance.

Another question I have is Dane County; Biden's largest vote net tied with Milwaukee. Dane is an extremely high turnout County and has been in midterms historically and reliably should give Dems over 70% no matter what. Will Dane County once again be high turnout in 2022? This is a large reason WI-Gov 2014 was relatively close despite Walkers extremely strong performances in WOW and much of the rest of the state.

[Koharu]

Madison folks (and some other parts of Dane county) are pretty riled up about abortion rights. It remains to be seen if that holds up over the summer and into autumn, but if attitudes stay similar to what they are now, folks are definitely riled and ready to vote.

As for candidates, I think Barnes represents the best chance of anyone running to defeat RoJo. He has significantly more name recognition by merit of being Lt. Gov., and he's been doing a ton of hand-shaking (and listening) in rural areas as well as urban ones. He's even been talking up farmers and the difficulties they face, and that kind of talk goes far in rural communities, even with folks who don't have anything to do with agriculture.

That said, even though RoJo is an all-around awful senator, unless he's charged with something after today's news, I am pessimistic about a Democrat being able to knock him out. The Democratic bench here is just non-existent right now, and with so many in the state legislature retiring, it's not going to get better in the near future.

[ProgressiveModerate]

WI-Sen 2022 will be a good test for how much the big lie and issues of democracy actually impact electability.

The news for Johnson recently has tied him pretty solidly with the big lie, and it seems to be something he's trying to embrace.

Since the GOP's WI coalition is dependent on rural, exurban, and suburban areas, some of which are working class and others have higher educational attainment, it'll be interesting to see how Johnson over or underperforms other Republicans in various regions of the state. In 2016 for instance, he did insane in WOW but in 2022 he's unlikely to replicate said performance. However, he could flip a few rural driftless counties.


This isn't about whether Johnson wins or loses; poor Dem turnout could cost Dems the race even if Johnson has a pretty underwhelming performance throughout many communities in the state. It's also not hard to see WI being roughly R + 6 or R + 8 for generic Rs in 2022; Johnson only winning by 2 in that case would be significant.

Similar to 2020, even if it doesn't ultimately cost them the seat, it just gives to GOP one more problem spot on the Senate map, sorta like how in 2020 GOP incompetency in IA and SC forced them to divert resources even though they ultimately won both seats with relative ease. It meant the GOP had less resources to go offensive in states they could've made competative in hindsight (MN, NH, NM, ect).

Also as a Dem, I don't think our slate of candidates is particularly strong but Barnes is well known, relatively inoffensive, and has been running a serious campaign. Being African American could also help around the margins given the African American turnout is key in WI. No matter who the Dem is will do similarly in Madison (which is more affected by the national picture), it's going to come down to Milwaukee and it's suburbs and if Trump really had unique appeal in ruarl areas or not.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1541111696386834433

[Skill and Chance]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

[Utah Neolib]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

[Devils30]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

Johnson is behaving like he's trying to lose...look at Steve Southerland and Lee Terry in 2014. An incumbent can lose in a wave year for their party if they make enough stupid mistakes. The 1849 law being on the books and creating confusion will also be a GOP problem. I don't expect this resolved until the 2023 election gives Dems a majority on the state Supreme Court and that will also give them better maps for 2024.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

It's sad how geography and a light gerrymander basically lock Rs in the legislature for a decade with shots at supermajorities. Sorta like the inverse of Nevada where geography makes it nearly impossible for Rs to win the legistlature even though Dems gerrymander is pretty tame.

[Minnesota Mike]

Johnson is certainly doing everything in his power to make this race a tossup. I need to see some more polling first but this may be the second senate seat I predict flipping.

[Devils30]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

It's sad how geography and a light gerrymander basically lock Rs in the legislature for a decade with shots at supermajorities. Sorta like the inverse of Nevada where geography makes it nearly impossible for Rs to win the legistlature even though Dems gerrymander is pretty tame.

If Dems win the Sup. Ct race next April (which with this abortion law on the books they will), the state legislative maps are toast and we may even get a 4-4 congressional map. If Evers wins this November, you wonder if he and the legislature will just cut a deal to put abortion as a ballot referendum.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

It's sad how geography and a light gerrymander basically lock Rs in the legislature for a decade with shots at supermajorities. Sorta like the inverse of Nevada where geography makes it nearly impossible for Rs to win the legistlature even though Dems gerrymander is pretty tame.

If Dems win the Sup. Ct race next April (which with this abortion law on the books they will), the state legislative maps are toast and we may even get a 4-4 congressional map. If Evers wins this November, you wonder if he and the legislature will just cut a deal to put abortion as a ballot referendum.

LOL the Supreme Court race is in no ways safe for dems

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

It's sad how geography and a light gerrymander basically lock Rs in the legislature for a decade with shots at supermajorities. Sorta like the inverse of Nevada where geography makes it nearly impossible for Rs to win the legistlature even though Dems gerrymander is pretty tame.

If Dems win the Sup. Ct race next April (which with this abortion law on the books they will), the state legislative maps are toast and we may even get a 4-4 congressional map. If Evers wins this November, you wonder if he and the legislature will just cut a deal to put abortion as a ballot referendum.

I think one would have to be pretty hackish to draw a 4-4 map unless you want to go all NC style. Splitting Dane County isn't particularly hard or vulgar but it's very hard to keep WI-4 VRA functioning while making a D leaning WI-01 is very hard. Infact the current config of WI-01 is pretty close to the best possible for Dems.

Even Ever's commission map was 2-2-4 with obvious choices made to make those 2 seats competative.

[Devils30]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

It's sad how geography and a light gerrymander basically lock Rs in the legislature for a decade with shots at supermajorities. Sorta like the inverse of Nevada where geography makes it nearly impossible for Rs to win the legistlature even though Dems gerrymander is pretty tame.

If Dems win the Sup. Ct race next April (which with this abortion law on the books they will), the state legislative maps are toast and we may even get a 4-4 congressional map. If Evers wins this November, you wonder if he and the legislature will just cut a deal to put abortion as a ballot referendum.

LOL the Supreme Court race is in no ways safe for dems

If it becomes a de facto ballot referendum on abortion it will be a Dem blowout. The 1849 law is on the books simply because it was never repealed, like 58% of the state is pro choice.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I want WI Supreme Court to get all Blonde Women justices just for the lols.

I wonder what it's like for the one guy who currently sits on the court?