WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

WI is not Safe R

Facts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

It's sad how geography and a light gerrymander basically lock Rs in the legislature for a decade with shots at supermajorities. Sorta like the inverse of Nevada where geography makes it nearly impossible for Rs to win the legistlature even though Dems gerrymander is pretty tame.

If Dems win the Sup. Ct race next April (which with this abortion law on the books they will), the state legislative maps are toast and we may even get a 4-4 congressional map. If Evers wins this November, you wonder if he and the legislature will just cut a deal to put abortion as a ballot referendum.

LOL the Supreme Court race is in no ways safe for dems

Maybe not safe, but the dems absolutely curb stomped the republicans in the last supreme court election (where people stood in lines for hours to vote in the early days of the coronavirus no less), and Roe being overturned is in no way, shape or form going to help the republicans in the next one.

They curb stomped due to the fact that the election was held concurrent to the 2020 Democratic presidential primary.

How would it have likely gone if both primaries were concurrent on the same day?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

It's sad how geography and a light gerrymander basically lock Rs in the legislature for a decade with shots at supermajorities. Sorta like the inverse of Nevada where geography makes it nearly impossible for Rs to win the legistlature even though Dems gerrymander is pretty tame.

If Dems win the Sup. Ct race next April (which with this abortion law on the books they will), the state legislative maps are toast and we may even get a 4-4 congressional map. If Evers wins this November, you wonder if he and the legislature will just cut a deal to put abortion as a ballot referendum.

LOL the Supreme Court race is in no ways safe for dems

Maybe not safe, but the dems absolutely curb stomped the republicans in the last supreme court election (where people stood in lines for hours to vote in the early days of the coronavirus no less), and Roe being overturned is in no way, shape or form going to help the republicans in the next one.

They curb stomped due to the fact that the election was held concurrent to the 2020 Democratic presidential primary.

How would it have likely gone if both primaries were concurrent on the same day?

I mean the R primary existed it was just all but uncontested.

Ok, true. That's fair.
Not too different from the PA Supreme Court elections some while back in the 2010s...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wait what?
https://twitter.com/NickyScatz/status/1574871577291800577?s=20&t=3U-Fmm8nJ-y...

Safe R > Likely D

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Any of you Wisconsin folks watching the debate tonight?  I just saw a few tweets about it.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1580709073053691905
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1580709985608048640

How many people are watching this debate?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Remarks from around 2020 were too fresh and too radical to begin with, also he was a challenger going up against an incumbent, which is hard to begin with.