WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs blocked the Jt Committee because they wanted to protect Ron Johnson that's why he is still favored in this Environment but D's aren't losing WI Johnson never ran with Evers he won both times with Walker as Gov, and MQK poll has him at 37 not 60 percent Favs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Mandela Barnes and Tony Evers defeated Scott Walker in 2018 after Obama endorsed Barnes, Biden isn't gonna step in to stop Barnes D's need the Blk vote in GA with WARNOCK

If Biden tries to stop anyway Blk vote in WI Warnock may lose

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be.  

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

Johnson is behaving like he's trying to lose...look at Steve Southerland and Lee Terry in 2014. An incumbent can lose in a wave year for their party if they make enough stupid mistakes.

The thing is is that this race could easily be framed as one that may decide control of the Senate and therefore become a referendum on Biden and DC Democrats, rather than being a referendum on what Wisconsin voters think of Ron Johnson. Democrats would need it to be the latter if they want to have a real chance of flipping this seat.

My Johnson is heavily underwater like Toomey is he doesn't have a 60 percent Approvals he has a 37 percent Approvals, Johnson isn't invincible Rs need to  🛑 acting like he is he is losing by 2 pts to all the D challengers

Everyone says Barnes is too left-wing Baldwin a socialist beat Tommy Thompson in 2012, Johnson isn't Rand Paul

Toomey retired because he has a 37 percent Approvals otherwise he would have stayed

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs blocked the Jt Committee that's why we only have a Select Committee in the H, the Jt Committee would have aired the Johnson texts, and Mcconnell was the one that blocked it there were 55Rs that voted for the Jt Committee

It makes since now that Johnson said it was a normal tourist visit than an Insurrectionists

But, Johnson isn't seen by some Indies as a Cruz type or josh Hawley they see him as Joe the Plummer that's why some insist that Johnson whom has a 37% Approvals but Toomey has the same Approvals that's why he retired even inoffensive Rs can lose too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes raises $2.1M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1544992119713959937

That's not enough. Granted, no amount of money is likely to be enough, but this doesn't inspire confidence in his chances.

I mean I don’t think Barnes is going to win but you’ve never had confidence in any Democrat winning ever.

Lol he was leading 46/44 on MQk poll and so was Evers 47)43 over Kleefisch

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes raises $2.1M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1544992119713959937

That's not enough. Granted, no amount of money is likely to be enough, but this doesn't inspire confidence in his chances.

DOOMERS on this site about Barnes

Johnson has a 37 percent Approvals in the MQK poll like Toomey did

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They are overestimating Johnson he has a 37% Approvals in MQK Polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Does anyone know why Johnson so heavily outran Trump in WoW in 2016? He had a slight underperformance pretty much everywhere else in the state but his overperformance in Milwaukee's white suburbs were really insane and really don't align with what one would expect. And when I say overperformance, I mean consistently 20 points +.

Whether or not Johnson is able to get this overperformance, or even half of it in 2022 will be really powerful in this race and Dems can't win if he gets it again even if they hold him down elsewhere.

It'd be like if Fetterman wins by underunni8nging Biden in rural PA and Allegehny, yet does even better in Chester and Montgomery counties and more generally SEPA. Wouldn't be the coalition anyone would've thought.

It's not insane at all, Hillary's general campaign that year activated a lot of voters only offended by Trump personally that might well have stayed home, but then they either stayed R or didn't vote for Feingold.

For similar reasons, if Hillary had bothered more seriously to campaign in the state, Driftless probably ends up being where Feingold seriously overperforms enough to flip the state, while Hillary barely holds on...just because some

On that note, it'll be interesting to see how things vary between gubernatorial and Senate.

Ron Johnson hammered Hillary on Benghazi that's why he survived and he was Chairman of Intelligence Committee before D's took over and along with Grassley are still to this day Investigation of Hunter Biden if he survived and we have NC as a backup to WI it will be on account of his investigation into Hunter Biden

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It'd be like if Fetterman wins by underunni8nging Biden in rural PA and Allegehny, yet does even better in Chester and Montgomery counties and more generally SEPA. Wouldn't be the coalition anyone would've thought.

.
He's losing 46/44 to Barnes in MQK poll
Not the thread for it and others have explained Johnson's win already, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if this is exactly what happens.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson that's how come Barnes can win and Johnson won by just 300K votes but even Nate Silver ranks WI as Lean R, and Cook is the only one that has it as Tossup, 300K votes is the same amount of votes that have statewide Provisional ballots and Johnson with the Female vote isn't gonna win every last vote as he won last time

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Snowlabrador doesn't realize that nothing is finalized until we vote, he thinks pre Election polls are exit polls no they're not

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes was winning 46/44 in the last MQK the only poll we have and Evers was beating Kleefisch 47/43 we don't get many polls from WI that's why users think it's Lean R and it's not Bernies and Warren are campaigning thru the August recess for Barnes and Fetterman

The only pollster that polls this race is MQK and it's once a month and they will poll it again

Tammy Baldwin won her race in 2012 against Tommy Thompson so it's not unusual that a socialist beat someone like Johnson and Johnson didnt win either of his races by double digits it's 3 pts like Pat Toomey did , why do you think Toomey retired he new he would be target, users don't realize if Johnson gets back in hr is moving to investigate Hunter Biden he won last time with BENGHAZI

So, Sir Muhammad thinking that Johnson is such a shoe in it will only lead to impeachment he doesn't like Hunter Biden

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's still gonna be very tough for him to win with Evers v Michel's on the ballot intead of Kleefisch but that's we have OH Tim Ryan and Beasley are doing well Rs have 3 open seats that are very vulnerable NC, OH and PA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well it's almost 8/9 anyways had trouble fundraising

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Barnes has always been a clear favorite. I doubt he can win the general in a year like this, though I don’t think he’s a particularly bad candidate at all (and I think the margin will be relatively respectable), the environment is just too much of an obstacle to overcome.

Lol, he is leading 46/44 and Obama won the state of WI and Obama campaign for Evers and Barnes in 2018 Ron Johnson didn't win by double digits he won by 3, you keep saying the samething

Steve Konraki already said ignore the rankings, take them with a grain a salt because there will be Provisional ballots like last time and Warnock didn't win outright he won by 50 K votes provision ballots, Loeffler was ahead of Warnock most of the night because the rural vote comes in First

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.newsweek.com/mandela-barnes-chances-beating-ron-johnson-wisconsin-polls-1729304

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes has won the right to lose to Johnson. It's a shame, he seems like a great candidate, but you can't elect a Democratic dog-catcher this year.

The last poll had Evers up 47/43 and Johnson behind 46/44 keep wishing that Johnson is gonna win Johnson has a 36 Favs


Quote me a poll that has Johnson up 10 and I will switch my rating, quote me poll that has Masters orVance or Laxalt up by 10 I will change my map, there aren't any


Schmidt isn't even up10 on Trudy Val he is up 6 that is arace

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MQK poll had Barnes up 46/44 lol he is not Charles Booker, Charles Booker is being crushed by 60/40

Gov Evers and Lt GOV BARNES DEF SCOTT WALKER IN 2018

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron Johnson has never won his races by double digits yes SCOTUS GERRYMANDERING OF WI MADE IT ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE BARNES BUT WI, AZ, GA, NC, OH, FL and Pa are all D targets because of black and brown and female vote and under 30 white men vote, the D's aren't targeting over 30 Evangelical white men that are very wealthy a white man had a Corvette in my neighborhood, the whites have 25 K in the bank for vacation or kids schooling that collects interest how many minorities have that type of money if they have it, it's used for mortgage or student loans, not for play money

RS ARENT WINNING THESE RACES BY THEMSELVES THEY HAVE A 6/3 RIGHT WING CRT AND BLOCKED VOTING RIGHTS


Alito, Gorsuch are two extremist that don't benefit poor Blks, Latinos and single moms

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In WI Tammy Baldwin DEFEATED Tommy Thompson so all this socialist stuff is simply untrue Ron Johnson has been talking about insurrection he only won by 3 pts not 10

You know everyone still keeps going by polls and these are the same polls that flubbed the MD Gov race that had FRANCHOT winning everything isn't about polls or Approvals the maps are blank on EDay there are gonna be Upsets it's not just a 303 map it's a 538 map

It it was all about polls we wouldn't have to vote

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Has anyone done serious poll on this race?

Yes MQK had Barnes up 46/45 and Evers up 47/43 on Kleefisch and 48/40 in Michael

This race is gonna be competetive not a landslide like Walker Johnson only wins his races by 300K votes he's not heavily favorite


Just the only person to win OH by double digits is Rob Portman or Vonovich Vance isn't winning like 20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know that's why everyone, except Cook got WI Lean R and with Gov race it's Tossup that's why OH despite polls is Lean R

It's a note that there are no rankings on Eday there are blank maps so going by rankings after polls again flubbed the MD Gov race or models isn't the end all be all Steve Konraki said this already and despite rankings he has NC, FL, OH, WI and PA as Tossup the only one he doesn't have is IA, MO and TX just a note Bevin was polling 44/40 like Abbott and lost on provisions ballots, Abbott can lose Beshear like Evers didn't win outright he was losing

If D's upset and win the H Abbott like Bevin is gone he is polling 44/40 like Bevin

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't quote many users but Snowlabador gets on this thread and derails it saying it's good for Johnson for Barnes and there hasn't been a single poll showing Johnson, Laxalt or Vance up by 10, all the Rs in 2010/14 had 10 pts leads on Landrieu, Pryor and Walsh


Just like Politician they both are only 20 not 30 yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs are blocked Medicare expansion already in BBB that would of extended dental benefits, everyone is gonna get old eventually that's why R users opposing Medicare expansion like Obamacare is incorrect, I was initially opposed to Medicare expansion but 50 we get AARP, 55 we can qualify for Senior Housing and retire at 62 if you aren't a Doc, lawyer, or judge or Politician, but we aren't dying off at 65 so some work til 73 especially Teachers

50 not 62 is a senior citizen or middle age you start qualifying for senior benefits with AARP Life insurance

I was 20 before and politician and Progressive Moderate and Snowlabrador are all like 20 and don't have to get Medicare that's why they think Rs are gonna sweep us older folks know better

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, Johnson just handed Democrats a HUGE prize with that comment.

Not necessarily. Everyone already knew that was Johnson's position.

They already blocked BBB that expanded Medicare Dental Benefits so it's just icing on the cake that he loses, there is no poll showing Johnson AHEAD

Why is Susan Collins blocking BBB because she doesn't want to raise a penny in taxes she will lose in 26 she kicked out in 20 because why along with Murkowski and Romney and Pelosi they passed stimulus checks to everyone now only enhanced child tax credits I lived in Cali and NEWSOM didn't give me one