MI (RP/Trafalgar): Trump +2

[Hope For A New Era]

Trashfailgar

[Rand]

Trashfailgar

Trafalgarbage

[EJ24]

The absolute height of Buzz's delusion.

First thinks Florida is not competitive and now thinks Trump is winning Michigan.

[Hammy]

The absolute height of Buzz's delusion.

First thinks Florida is not competitive and now thinks Trump is winning Michigan.

I'm pretty sure posting polls =/= believing them.

Doing some comparison beyond the topline I posted on earlier, their poll in 2016 was 49-47 Trump--and they actually over-polled Trump by about 1.5 points while being correct on Hillary's.

Seeing how the final result is not 45-44 this entire poll is called into question.

[Asta]

Trafalgar with another +1/+2 poll.

What really is the chance that Midwest is all within +1 or +2 again? Polls are supposed to have variation even within same sample due to random chances.

[redjohn]

I'm of the belief that Trafalgar just happened to get lucky in 2016 in MI, but still, MI should be the biggest concern in the upper midwest because of it having 16 EVs (more than WI or MN) and a vulnerable Senator up for re-election.

[Hammy]

Something that occurred to me after I posted, is it me or does Trafalgar seem like they're having a problem with high undecideds across the board this election, and not just with this poll?

[Asta]

Something that occurred to me after I posted, is it me or does Trafalgar seem like they're having a problem with high undecideds across the board this election, and not just with this poll?

Not sure if I'm understanding your question correctly but they have undecided at roughly 2%. Their undecided numbers from my observation have been actually lower than those of the average pollster.

[Hammy]

Something that occurred to me after I posted, is it me or does Trafalgar seem like they're having a problem with high undecideds across the board this election, and not just with this poll?

Not sure if I'm understanding your question correctly but they have undecided at roughly 2%. Their undecided numbers from my observation have been actually lower than those of the average pollster.

Undecided/other. We're probably not getting 6% third party vote this year, and their 2016 poll only had 3% combined.

[Asta]

Something that occurred to me after I posted, is it me or does Trafalgar seem like they're having a problem with high undecideds across the board this election, and not just with this poll?

Not sure if I'm understanding your question correctly but they have undecided at roughly 2%. Their undecided numbers from my observation have been actually lower than those of the average pollster.

Undecided/other. We're probably not getting 6% third party vote this year, and their 2016 poll only had 3% combined.

I reviewed some recent polls and you're actually right.

If the premise of Trafalgar's methodology is that Trump voters are far more reluctant to admit their intention, it's odd that voters would rather choose 3rd party voters at a higher rate.

[Lief 🗽]

I have tried to add this poll to the database three times now, and I keep getting an error. Even Dave Leip's beautiful website is violently rejecting this trash poll!

edit: 4th time worked!

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Michigan President by Trafalgar Group on 2020-10-18

Summary: D: 45%, R: 47%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Senator Spark]

The Biden collapse is real.

[Hammy]

The Biden collapse is real.

And Biden still leads in Trafalgar's PA and WI polls.

[South Dakota Democrat]

YESSSS!!! TRUMP!!! Trump!!! Make America great Racist again!!!!

Wahooo!!!!!

[Yoda]

Well. I am really looking forward now to an official forum rule after the election that polls from Trafalgar are permanently banned.

This would be like a Quinnipiac poll having Biden up by 2 in Nebraska or Tennessee right now.

I'd rather Atlas not become the left wing version of RCP just so we cam collectively use the polls as comfort blankets.

And Trafalgar was more accurate than Quinnipiac so if one goes the other should.

My comment was very tongue-in cheek, I'm not actually advocating banning any polls.

That being said, we'll have to wait and see how Trafalgar v. Quinnipiac shakes out, I find it very dubious that trafalgar is more accurate.

[lfromnj]

Posting purely for information.

Trafalgars final poll in Michigan was +2 Trump
Final Senate poll in 2018 was +9 Stabenow

[TheLaRocca]

Posting purely for information.

Trafalgars final poll in Michigan was +2 Trump
Final Senate poll in 2018 was +9 Stabenow

They adjust it to favor Trump (openly).

though the race is closer in Michigan than people think...

[Hammy]

Well. I am really looking forward now to an official forum rule after the election that polls from Trafalgar are permanently banned.

This would be like a Quinnipiac poll having Biden up by 2 in Nebraska or Tennessee right now.

I'd rather Atlas not become the left wing version of RCP just so we cam collectively use the polls as comfort blankets.

And Trafalgar was more accurate than Quinnipiac so if one goes the other should.

My comment was very tongue-in cheek, I'm not actually advocating banning any polls.

That being said, we'll have to wait and see how Trafalgar v. Quinnipiac shakes out, I find it very dubious that trafalgar is more accurate.

While I know Quinnipiac does have a D bias, I spoke in error as it was PPP I was thinking of that was completely out of it, 2016 comparison of the polls released today cleared it up for me.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

YESSSS!!! TRUMP!!! Trump!!! Make America great Racist again!!!!

Wahooo!!!!!

It was always racist. And it was never great.