IA - Siena College/NYT Upshot: Ernst +1%

[ProgressiveModerate]

soybean bump

This man is a prophet:

I can't wait until she makes some "gaffe" that only Dem hacks care about like in 2014 (or like Cramer's "Akin comments" this year) and everyone moves it to toss up/lean D.

(Yes, Ernst could lose, but seat 49 or 50 for Democrats this is not.)

You’re right, it’s seat 50 or 51.

More like seat 53. MT and GA will flip first.

False

Only time will tell. Really depends upon the national environment and how much partisanship wins out

[SnowLabrador]

Come on..are the Dems getting complacent?

[GALeftist]

To everyone panicking about this poll, finish your North Carolina before you start your Iowa.

[MillennialModerate]

I mean you could be looking at a 22 year stretch without Dems being able to pass a single piece of legislation. Lean R

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Sabato's Crystal Ball just moved this to Lean D.

Yeah, they are putting their reputations on the line here. Looks like they seriously jumped the gun on that silly move.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

To everyone panicking about this poll, finish your North Carolina before you start your Iowa.

I never had any faith in Iowa polling anyway, so my hopes aren't dashed.

[Xing]

Sabato's Crystal Ball just moved this to Lean D.

Yeah, they are putting their reputations on the line here. Looks like they seriously jumped the gun on that silly move.

And they'll look stupid if they immediately move it back to Toss-Up, so they're probably stuck with their rating. As I've said, if IA-SEN actually does somehow vote left of NC-SEN, I'll bow down to Larry Sabato, God among Prognosticators.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sabato's Crystal Ball just moved this to Lean D.

Yeah, they are putting their reputations on the line here. Looks like they seriously jumped the gun on that silly move.

And they'll look stupid if they immediately move it back to Toss-Up, so they're probably stuck with their rating. As I've said, if IA-SEN actually does somehow vote left of NC-SEN, I'll bow down to Larry Sabato, God among Prognosticators.

Biden has been ahead in IA in most polls due to fact our Congressial districts aren't R leaning, they are D leaning. Rs before Covid hit were expected to sweep all four districts

This same poll has Biden plus 3 in IA

[Don Vito Corleone]

This man is a prophet:

I can't wait until she makes some "gaffe" that only Dem hacks care about like in 2014 (or like Cramer's "Akin comments" this year) and everyone moves it to toss up/lean D.

(Yes, Ernst could lose, but seat 49 or 50 for Democrats this is not.)

By what possible definition are you counting a prediction that had this race being an easy win for Rs as being prophetic when the race is very obviously not an easy win.

[jamestroll]

Jesus christ.. one poll with Ernst up and everyone is moving it to SAFE R? lmao.


Its a toss up race that Democrats will win (as of my current prediction) but it will be after they win AZ, CO, ME and NC.

[KaiserDave]

This is tossup/Tilt D (don't forget the Monmouth poll), but let's wait for the DMR/Selzer poll

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Jesus christ.. one poll with Ernst up and everyone is moving it to SAFE R? lmao.


Its a toss up race that Democrats will win (as of my current prediction) but it will be after they win AZ, CO, ME and NC.

I don't see anyone moving it to Safe R. Don't conflate that with people who are mocking Sabato for making the premature jump to Lean D.

[jamestroll]

Jesus christ.. one poll with Ernst up and everyone is moving it to SAFE R? lmao.


Its a toss up race that Democrats will win (as of my current prediction) but it will be after they win AZ, CO, ME and NC.

I don't see anyone moving it to Safe R. Don't conflate that with people who are mocking Sabato for making the premature jump to Lean D.

I have it as Tilt D not lean D. Essentially a toss up. I just believe Greenfield will win it.

The Ernst discussion has been hilarious this entire cycle and I always saw she was not taking the race seriously. If she was taking it semi-seriously she wouldn't have had much trouble winning at all.

But I am quite certain if Greenfield wins she will be the one federally elected Democrat from Iowa in January 2023 and possibly the only statewide Democrat in office. Unless one of the down ballot dems wins re-election.

[WD]

I’m going to be honest, I don’t know what Sabato is thinking moving this to lean D. Personally, I think Greenfield wins, but if she ends up losing he’s going to have a truckload of egg on his face.

[MT Treasurer]

I’m going to be honest, I don’t know what Sabato is thinking moving this to lean D. Personally, I think Greenfield wins, but if she ends up losing he’s going to have a truckload of egg on his face.

Even if Ernst wins, we’ll get 1 1/2 years of this...

"Why Republicans are right to fret over Abby Finkenauer's entry into the Iowa Senate race"

- Analysis by Chris Cillizza

"Finkenauer in: Iowa Senate from Lean R to Tossup"

- Analysis by Larry Sabato

[WD]

I’m going to be honest, I don’t know what Sabato is thinking moving this to lean D. Personally, I think Greenfield wins, but if she ends up losing he’s going to have a truckload of egg on his face.

Even if Ernst wins, we’ll get 1 1/2 years of this...

"Why Republicans are right to fret over Abby Finkenauer's entry into the Iowa Senate race"

- Analysis by Chris Cillizza

"Finkenauer in: Iowa Senate from Lean R to Tossup"

- Analysis by Larry Sabato

And then she loses by 10-11 points.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I’m going to be honest, I don’t know what Sabato is thinking moving this to lean D. Personally, I think Greenfield wins, but if she ends up losing he’s going to have a truckload of egg on his face.

Even if Ernst wins, we’ll get 1 1/2 years of this...

"Why Republicans are right to fret over Abby Finkenauer's entry into the Iowa Senate race"

- Analysis by Chris Cillizza

"Finkenauer in: Iowa Senate from Lean R to Tossup"

- Analysis by Larry Sabato

And then she loses by 10-11 points.

That's being generous to her, haha.

[Mr.Phips]

I’m going to be honest, I don’t know what Sabato is thinking moving this to lean D. Personally, I think Greenfield wins, but if she ends up losing he’s going to have a truckload of egg on his face.

Even if Ernst wins, we’ll get 1 1/2 years of this...

"Why Republicans are right to fret over Abby Finkenauer's entry into the Iowa Senate race"

- Analysis by Chris Cillizza

"Finkenauer in: Iowa Senate from Lean R to Tossup"

- Analysis by Larry Sabato

And then she loses by 10-11 points.

She’d be an idiot to run in a Biden midterm.

[GALeftist]

I’m going to be honest, I don’t know what Sabato is thinking moving this to lean D. Personally, I think Greenfield wins, but if she ends up losing he’s going to have a truckload of egg on his face.

Even if Ernst wins, we’ll get 1 1/2 years of this...

"Why Republicans are right to fret over Abby Finkenauer's entry into the Iowa Senate race"

- Analysis by Chris Cillizza

"Finkenauer in: Iowa Senate from Lean R to Tossup"

- Analysis by Larry Sabato

And then she loses by 10-11 points.

She’d be an idiot to run in a Biden midterm.

The clock's ticking, though. I'm not sure any Democrat will be able to win statewide in 2028.

[S019]

Damn if Siena. I swear if we lose the senate after a D + 2 year and 2 wave years...

This race won't be close to the tipping point, NC will probably be the tipping point, though GA, ME, and MT are also possibilities.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Damn if Siena. I swear if we lose the senate after a D + 2 year and 2 wave years...

This race won't be close to the tipping point, NC will probably be the tipping point, though GA, ME, and MT are also possibilities.

Yeah that would be my guess too, but I always worry that somehow NC, MI, or ME suprize us.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Damn if Siena. I swear if we lose the senate after a D + 2 year and 2 wave years...

This race won't be close to the tipping point, NC will probably be the tipping point, though GA, ME, and MT are also possibilities.

Yeah that would be my guess too, but I always worry that somehow NC, MI, or ME suprize us.

You can go phone bank for Cunningham or Gideon if you’re that anxious.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Damn if Siena. I swear if we lose the senate after a D + 2 year and 2 wave years...

This race won't be close to the tipping point, NC will probably be the tipping point, though GA, ME, and MT are also possibilities.

Yeah that would be my guess too, but I always worry that somehow NC, MI, or ME suprize us.

You can go phone bank for Cunningham or Gideon if you’re that anxious.

Is there anything you can think of that I could do without my parents knowing? I really want to help out but don't want them to get suspicious with me calling a bunch of people or getting texts from strangers. I was able to convince my father to give money to Gideon and Harrison though.

[Gracile]

I’m going to be honest, I don’t know what Sabato is thinking moving this to lean D. Personally, I think Greenfield wins, but if she ends up losing he’s going to have a truckload of egg on his face.

Even if Ernst wins, we’ll get 1 1/2 years of this...

"Why Republicans are right to fret over Abby Finkenauer's entry into the Iowa Senate race"

- Analysis by Chris Cillizza

"Finkenauer in: Iowa Senate from Lean R to Tossup"

- Analysis by Larry Sabato

And then she loses by 10-11 points.

She’d be an idiot to run in a Biden midterm.

In a universe where Trump wins reelection, I think she would be a good candidate to run for Senate in a six-year itch scenario (pulling off a fluke victory in an R-trending state that isn't entirely gone but then losing in 2028 by a substantial margin/the partisan lean of the state in a presidential year winning out, much like Cory Gardner in 2014/2020). I wonder if she had that in mind when passing on a Senate run this year.

[S019]

I’m going to be honest, I don’t know what Sabato is thinking moving this to lean D. Personally, I think Greenfield wins, but if she ends up losing he’s going to have a truckload of egg on his face.

Even if Ernst wins, we’ll get 1 1/2 years of this...

"Why Republicans are right to fret over Abby Finkenauer's entry into the Iowa Senate race"

- Analysis by Chris Cillizza

"Finkenauer in: Iowa Senate from Lean R to Tossup"

- Analysis by Larry Sabato

And then she loses by 10-11 points.

She’d be an idiot to run in a Biden midterm.

This, even if both Biden and Greenfield win it this year, the state will clearly be right of the nation and such a state isn't winnable in a Biden midterm, but I foresee to everyone yelling "but 2020" in 2022, if both of them do actually win. On the other hand, even if both lose, some red avatars here will still insist "it's just not gone yet." Honestly, it reminds of the Republicans' refusal to admit VA and CO are gone for them.