IA - Siena College/NYT Upshot: Ernst +1%
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  IA - Siena College/NYT Upshot: Ernst +1%
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Author Topic: IA - Siena College/NYT Upshot: Ernst +1%  (Read 2094 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 21, 2020, 12:25:37 PM »

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/ia101820-crosstabs/1eff04c308f3dcb1/full.pdf

October 18-20
753 likely voters
MoE: 3.9%
Changes with September 16-22

Ernst 45% (+5)
Greenfield 44% (+1)
Herzog (I) 2% (n/c)
Stewart (L) 2% (n/c)
Someone else 1% (+1)
Not voting for Senate 1% (n/c)
Don't know/refused 6% (-8)
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2020, 12:28:06 PM »

Not so good for Greenfield. True tossup race.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2020, 12:30:17 PM »

Favorables suggest undecideds probably would go with Greenfield:

Greenfield:
- 51% Favorable
- 38% Unfavorable

Ernst
- 46% Favorable
- 47% Unfavorable
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2020, 12:30:30 PM »

soybean bump
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2020, 12:31:58 PM »


By disassociating herself from soy, Ernst is leaning into tried-and-true populism. Now all she needs to do is cut an ad taking Brainforce and she'll have the Paul Joseph Watson fan vote locked up.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2020, 12:32:02 PM »

Favorables suggest undecideds probably would go with Greenfield:

Greenfield:
- 51% Favorable
- 38% Unfavorable

Ernst
- 46% Favorable
- 47% Unfavorable

Yeah, I'm not sure how you end up with Ernst +1 with Greenfield +13 vs. Ernst -1. All of the undecideds must feel favorable toward Greenfield and not Ernst, so that bodes well for Greenfield.
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Ljube
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« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2020, 12:32:41 PM »

The voters are realizing that Biden will win and they are worried about what complete Democratic control would bring, so they are making sure the Senate serves as a check on Biden.
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Gracile
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« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2020, 12:33:04 PM »

This race is still competitive, though I think "Lean D" was probably a bit premature. I'm highly interested in what the final Selzer poll will show.
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Ben.
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« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2020, 12:34:04 PM »

NYT/Siena not pushing the undecideds as much could mean you see of the less 'soft' support for Greenfield in this poll.

Ernst almost certainly has a higher floor of support and suspect both Biden and Greenfield would have to rely on a lot of soft support to win.

Eitherway... tight race remains tight race. Also suspect that Greenfield will outpoll Biden, but probably not by much.
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new_patomic
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« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2020, 12:34:30 PM »

Not a great poll for Greenfield, though Ernst being at 45 with poor favorability versus her opponent is not exactly a commanding position.

Is this the first poll in a while to show Ernst running ahead of Trump? Or should we just assume that's an oddity of how Siena doesn't push undecided voters.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2020, 12:34:33 PM »

This race is still competitive, though I think "Lean D" was probably a bit premature. I'm highly interested in what the final Selzer poll will show.

Greenfield's fav is +13. Ernst's is -1. There's something funky with this topline.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2020, 12:34:51 PM »

The voters are realizing that Biden will win and they are worried about what complete Democratic control would bring, so they are making sure the Senate serves as a check on Biden.



Dems have AZ, CO, ME and GA R and S as backups to IA and NC
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2020, 12:35:00 PM »

Greenfield's approvals are very good for her. But I really won't make any conclusions on this until the Selzer poll.
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The Address That Must Not be Named
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« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2020, 12:35:35 PM »

Outlier until proven otherwise
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Ljube
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« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2020, 12:37:17 PM »

The voters are realizing that Biden will win and they are worried about what complete Democratic control would bring, so they are making sure the Senate serves as a check on Biden.



Dems have AZ, CO, ME and GA R and S as backups to IA and NC

OC, isn't it better for the Senate to stay R?
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MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
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« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2020, 12:38:31 PM »


This man is a prophet:

I can't wait until she makes some "gaffe" that only Dem hacks care about like in 2014 (or like Cramer's "Akin comments" this year) and everyone moves it to toss up/lean D.

(Yes, Ernst could lose, but seat 49 or 50 for Democrats this is not.)
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Skye
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« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2020, 12:39:46 PM »

Sabato's Crystal Ball just moved this to Lean D.
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The Address That Must Not be Named
Mr. X
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« Reply #17 on: October 21, 2020, 12:40:12 PM »


This man is a prophet:

I can't wait until she makes some "gaffe" that only Dem hacks care about like in 2014 (or like Cramer's "Akin comments" this year) and everyone moves it to toss up/lean D.

(Yes, Ernst could lose, but seat 49 or 50 for Democrats this is not.)

Youíre right, itís seat 50 or 51.
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WD
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« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2020, 12:40:51 PM »


This man is a prophet:

I can't wait until she makes some "gaffe" that only Dem hacks care about like in 2014 (or like Cramer's "Akin comments" this year) and everyone moves it to toss up/lean D.

(Yes, Ernst could lose, but seat 49 or 50 for Democrats this is not.)

Youíre right, itís seat 50 or 51.

More like seat 53. MT and GA will flip first.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #19 on: October 21, 2020, 12:42:58 PM »

Sabato's Crystal Ball just moved this to Lean D.

Yes, and this is one poll. Monmouth average from today between High/Low turnout is Greenfield +4, and the average for Greenfield is still about +4.
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Xing
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« Reply #20 on: October 21, 2020, 12:47:47 PM »

Not confident about this race, though I'd still rate it a Toss-Up. Hopefully we get another Selzer poll soon.
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jimmie
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« Reply #21 on: October 21, 2020, 12:48:20 PM »


This man is a prophet:

I can't wait until she makes some "gaffe" that only Dem hacks care about like in 2014 (or like Cramer's "Akin comments" this year) and everyone moves it to toss up/lean D.

(Yes, Ernst could lose, but seat 49 or 50 for Democrats this is not.)

Exactly
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2020, 12:50:46 PM »

Not confident about this race, though I'd still rate it a Toss-Up. Hopefully we get another Selzer poll soon.

You think we are dealing with Rubio, Jeb or Walker, Biden is dealing with Trump here, and he wasn't a real politician. In my home turf of IN , as Illinoians, whom went to IN to gamble during 2008, Trump casinos went bankrupt and they changed the name.  That's why he went on Raw with Vince Mcmahon to get paid, 2010, he went insolvent
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #23 on: October 21, 2020, 01:01:39 PM »

Damn if Siena. I swear if we lose the senate after a D + 2 year and 2 wave years...
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The Address That Must Not be Named
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« Reply #24 on: October 21, 2020, 01:07:30 PM »


This man is a prophet:

I can't wait until she makes some "gaffe" that only Dem hacks care about like in 2014 (or like Cramer's "Akin comments" this year) and everyone moves it to toss up/lean D.

(Yes, Ernst could lose, but seat 49 or 50 for Democrats this is not.)

Youíre right, itís seat 50 or 51.

More like seat 53. MT and GA will flip first.

False
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