IA-Monmouth: Biden+3/5

[WD]

FWIW the last Monmouth poll of IA in 2016 was Trump+8

[Tender Branson]

If Trump loses Iowa by 3, I’ll delete my account forever.  

Obama/Biden won IA by 10 and 6, so it is quite likely.

[indietraveler]

Ugh can't believe that it could be senior citizens flipping the state back, but makes sense considering Iowa isn't really a "young" state.

I would assume a high LV turnout at this point. Otherwise this poll makes sense. Rurals are staying the same (relatively) while the larger population counties are more favorable to Biden than Clinton.

How high does Biden's margin have to get before we can end the "IA is MO" takes.

[Torrain]

[Buzz]

Monmouth is an accurate pollster for Idaho. This is not a good poll for Trump at all and is arguably his worst of the week so far.

Gaffe! Horus has dementia!

[Badger]

If Trump loses Iowa by 3, I’ll delete my account forever. 

We will hold you to that, and no one will mourn.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA was always a purple states due to our Congressional districts leading D

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Monmouth is an accurate pollster for Idaho. This is not a good poll for Trump at all and is arguably his worst of the week so far.

Corn, not potatoes, Horus!

[redjohn]

Anyways, this should be enough to say IA is tilting D. Polls at this point in 2016 showed Trump leading IA, if he's losing by 3/5 points here now he's doomed.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why is Mr. Trump supposed to lose by a wider margin with a low turnout model? Usually that should benefit Dems. That said, IA will swing back hard, though I'm not sold on Biden winning IA.

Since when turnout is higher, you get ore less reliable voters who show up, who are more likely to vote with their Demographic nationally. Regular voters in IA skew uniquely Dem, so you would expect higher turnout to favor Rs. The reverse is true in a place like TX.

[DINGO Joe]

Why is Mr. Trump supposed to lose by a wider margin with a low turnout model? Usually that should benefit Dems. That said, IA will swing back hard, though I'm not sold on Biden winning IA.

Because more than half of the electorate has requested early ballots and that has skewed super heavy to the Ds,  The Rs will have to show up big on election day (high turnout) to make things competitive.  If they don't (low turnout) then it's over.

[Sir Mohamed]

Why is Mr. Trump supposed to lose by a wider margin with a low turnout model? Usually that should benefit Dems. That said, IA will swing back hard, though I'm not sold on Biden winning IA.

Because more than half of the electorate has requested early ballots and that has skewed super heavy to the Ds,  The Rs will have to show up big on election day (high turnout) to make things competitive.  If they don't (low turnout) then it's over.

That makes sense.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Trump loses Iowa by 3, I’ll delete my account forever.  

You do know this poll had Trump +8 four years ago and has a Party ID of GOP +9?

This is a disaster for Trump

Trump won IA, in part due to Grassley beat Party Judge in 2016, that's why he overperformed, in 2018, IA swung hard D due to our Congressial districts

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's really starting to look like Trump is circling the drain.

[MillennialModerate]

First poll all week that has made me feel better about the POTUS race as opposed to worse.

[MT Treasurer]

This should say "IA-Monmouth: Trump +1 (RV), Biden+3/5 (LV)"

[DINGO Joe]

A little more color on this.  In 2016 R registration was 30,000 more than D and in the election there were 70,000 more R votes than D.  This year R registration is 10,000 more than Ds and as of this moment the Ds have cast 136,000 more votes than the Rs.  (It's a little more complicated because there are a substantial but shrinking number of Independents)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

[redjohn]

This should say "IA-Monmouth: Trump +1 (RV), Biden+3/5 (LV)"

LV results are much more relevant now that pollsters have a rough idea of what the electorate will look like. RV results are better many months out from an election.

[DINGO Joe]

It's really starting to look like Trump is circling the drain.

Don't worry, Trump has plenty of cash in the GOTV Chinese Bank Account to drive voters to the poll on election day.

[BidenHarris2020]

I think we need to bring this back.

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

So nice..let's quote it twice!

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[CellarDoor]

Why is Mr. Trump supposed to lose by a wider margin with a low turnout model? Usually that should benefit Dems. That said, IA will swing back hard, though I'm not sold on Biden winning IA.

When asked by the Monmouth, voters were able to say whether they had already voted or not.  The results of that question showed that the makeup of voters who have already voted is heavily Democratic.  As a result, if we see a low turnout from this point, it would favor Democrats because of the large portion of Democrats who have already voted.  If we see a higher turnout from this point, that likely means that Republicans, who haven't voted in large numbers yet, were able to vote.

[It’s so Joever]

Interesting how Biden benefits from lower turnout in these rust belt states.
I guess the GOP tactics of suppression could backfire soon.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This poll has put Biden narrowly ahead in Iowa in the "nowcast" version of 538's model.

The only reason it is still red on the main chart is the 7% of the model that is still based on "economics and incumbency" (which projects Trump to win by 8.5% in IA).

[redjohn]

This poll has put Biden narrowly ahead in the "nowcast" version of 538's model.

The only reason it is still red on the main chart is the 7% of the model that is still based on "economics and incumbency" (which projects Trump to win by 8.5% in IA).

NYT's poll of IA tomorrow could put him over the top. The momentum is in Biden's direction in IA, undoubtedly.