IA-Monmouth: Biden+3/5
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Author Topic: IA-Monmouth: Biden+3/5  (Read 3989 times)
redjohn
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« on: October 21, 2020, 10:00:55 AM »
Trump is supported by 48% of registered voters in Iowa and Biden is supported by 47%. Just 2% say they will vote for another candidate and 2% are still undecided. Trump led Biden among registered voters in prior Monmouth polls – by 50% to 44% in September and by 48% to 45% in August.

Biden pulls ahead, though, when different likely voter models+ are applied. A model based on a relatively high level of turnout puts the race at 50% Biden and 47% Trump, while a model reflecting lower turnout produces an even wider 51% to 46% result. Trump led by 3 points among likely voters in Monmouth’s poll last month.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_ia_102120/
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EJ24
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2020, 10:01:52 AM »
BUCKETS

OF

NUT
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2020, 10:01:55 AM »
« Edited: October 21, 2020, 10:07:22 AM by KaiserDave »
Can we get the details?

But, terrible poll for Trump, and I mean TERRIBLE.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2020, 10:02:46 AM »
Johnson County Joe!
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n1240
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2020, 10:03:02 AM »
10/15-19, 501 RV
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2020, 10:03:09 AM »


Hawkeye Joe!
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2020, 10:03:21 AM »
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2020, 10:03:41 AM »
The senate numbers are underwhelming considering how well Biden is doing. IA is a weird state. Probably the only state where higher turnout hurts Democrats (alongside maybe MN, and some other northern white rural states taht are already safe)
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redjohn
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« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2020, 10:03:53 AM »
RV:
Trump 48% (-2)
Biden 47% (+3)

LV-high turnout:
Trump 47% (-2)
Biden 50% (+4)

LV-low turnout:
Trump: 46%
Biden 51%

Compared to previous Monmouth poll of IA (Sept. 18-22)
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xavier110
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« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2020, 10:04:17 AM »
I am starting to understand the GOP's "bloodbath" comments
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Buzz
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2020, 10:04:46 AM »
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n1240
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2020, 10:05:35 AM »
Self-reported party ID is R+9.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2020, 10:05:40 AM »
The high Democratic early vote is positively effecting the LV screen.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2020, 10:05:45 AM »
Why is Mr. Trump supposed to lose by a wider margin with a low turnout model? Usually that should benefit Dems. That said, IA will swing back hard, though I'm not sold on Biden winning IA.
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redjohn
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« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2020, 10:06:10 AM »

Monmouth's final poll of IA in 2016 was Trump+8, pretty much nailing the margin. This is devastating for Trump.
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Buzz
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« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2020, 10:07:48 AM »
If Trump loses Iowa by 3, I’ll delete my account forever. 
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2020, 10:08:39 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 21, 2020, 10:07:48 AM
If Trump loses Iowa by 3, I’ll delete my account forever. 

You do know this poll had Trump +8 four years ago and has a Party ID of GOP +9?

This is a disaster for Trump
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #17 on: October 21, 2020, 10:08:45 AM »
October 15-19
501 registered/likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Quote from: Beida on October 21, 2020, 10:03:53 AM
RV:
Trump 48% (-2)
Biden 47% (+3)
Jorgensen 1% (-1)
Another candidate 1% (n/c)
No one 1% (+1)
Hawkins 0% (no voters) (n/c from at 0% but with some voters)
Undecided 2% (n/c)

LV-high turnout:
Biden 50% (+4)
Trump 47% (-2)

LV-low turnout:
Biden 51% (+5)
Trump 46% (-3)

Compared to previous Monmouth poll of IA (Sept. 18-22)
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redjohn
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« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2020, 10:08:54 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 21, 2020, 10:07:48 AM
If Trump loses Iowa by 3, I’ll delete my account forever. 

Trump losing IA by 3 would be pretty consistent with Biden leading nationally by near double-digits, which we've seen in every recent high-quality poll. Not sure why this is so hard for you to believe.
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #19 on: October 21, 2020, 10:09:07 AM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on October 21, 2020, 10:05:45 AM
Why is Mr. Trump supposed to lose by a wider margin with a low turnout model? Usually that should benefit Dems. That said, IA will swing back hard, though I'm not sold on Biden winning IA.

I think its possible that lower propensity voters in a nearly all-white state like Iowa are much more likely to be non-college educated whites who probably would lean Trump if they actually voted, while in a state like, say... Texas or Arizona, lower propensity voters are much more likely to be non-white?
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #20 on: October 21, 2020, 10:09:33 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 21, 2020, 10:03:09 AM


Hawkeye Joe!
If hadn’t been for Hawkeye Joe I’d be married a long time ago. Where did you come from? Where did you go? Where did come from, Hawkeye Joe?
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compucomp
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« Reply #21 on: October 21, 2020, 10:09:36 AM »
I think we need to bring this back.

Quote from: SirWoodbury on August 29, 2020, 11:21:06 AM
OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2020, 10:09:46 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 21, 2020, 10:07:48 AM
If Trump loses Iowa by 3, I’ll delete my account forever. 

Nah, we need Trumpers to stick around when their leader loses.

Btw, I don't think Trump loses IA, but if he does (<30% chance), it will by by less than 2 pts.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: October 21, 2020, 10:09:52 AM »
Funny how people called Q-pac insane for having Biden +5 two weeks ago
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Horus
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« Reply #24 on: October 21, 2020, 10:10:31 AM »
« Edited: October 21, 2020, 10:16:59 AM by Horus »
Monmouth is an accurate pollster for Iowa. This is not a good poll for Trump at all and is arguably his worst of the week so far.
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