FL, MN, NV - Civiqs/DailyKos: Biden +4, +10, +9

[Hammy]

I’ll believe it when I see it (luckily only 2 weeks)

What is unbelievable about these polls? All 3 of these results are within 1% of what I expect

The Florida number is not even slightly believable.

None of them have been.

[Hammy]

I think this is fine. But Minnesota is def not that blue.

Trump is favored in the Iron Range according to polling. But he does MUCH worse in Minneapolis suburbia and southern Minnesota. Should win by 5-6ish.

No. Biden will win MN by 7-10%.

This is what delusion looks like

Nobody who thinks Minnesota will be close has given a reasonable explanation as to why.

[Hammy]

I think this is fine. But Minnesota is def not that blue.

Trump is favored in the Iron Range according to polling. But he does MUCH worse in Minneapolis suburbia and southern Minnesota. Should win by 5-6ish.

No. Biden will win MN by 7-10%.

This is what delusion looks like

Nobody who thinks Minnesota will be close has given a reasonable explanation as to why.

Um, I have like five times.

You guys just chose to ignore any analysis that does not have the Democrats winning by massive margins in the midwest (despite polling tell you its close).

I've been one of the most vocal in disputing the "massive margins" argument red avatars are pushing. But your Tossup Minnesota is equally unrealistic.

Saying the Iron Range vote will trend the state Republican makes no sense because the reason for the change in rural margins is because they are depopulating--people are moving to more urban areas, and are trending them further left in the process. That's not going to change the state's vote as a whole.