FL, MN, NV - Civiqs/DailyKos: Biden +4, +10, +9

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 17-20

FL
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_FL_banner_book_2020_10_6s25ck.pdf

863 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

Biden 51%
Trump 47%
Someone else 1%
Unsure 1%

MN
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_MN_banner_book_2020_10_d859f5.pdf

840 likely voters
MoE: 3.6%

Biden 53%
Trump 43%
Someone else 3%
Unsure 1%

NV
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_NV_banner_book_2020_10_r8597h.pdf

712 likely voters
MoE: 5.3%

Biden 52%
Trump 43%
Someone else 3%
Unsure 1%

[Buzz]

I’ll believe it when I see it (luckily only 2 weeks)

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I’ll believe it when I see it (luckily only 2 weeks)

What is unbelievable about these polls? All 3 of these results are within 1% of what I expect

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs has been pretty believable this cycle. Of note, they also nailed TX and OH SEN in 2018

[Rand]

Blah blah 2016 blah blah Hunter Biden.

[Buzz]

I’ll believe it when I see it (luckily only 2 weeks)

What is unbelievable about these polls? All 3 of these results are within 1% of what I expect

The Florida number is not even slightly believable.

[Figueira]

Nice to see some good polls for Biden.

[wbrocks67]

I’ll believe it when I see it (luckily only 2 weeks)

What is unbelievable about these polls? All 3 of these results are within 1% of what I expect

The Florida number is not even slightly believable.

How so? Biden's average right now is literally nearly +4 in 538

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I’ll believe it when I see it (luckily only 2 weeks)

What is unbelievable about these polls? All 3 of these results are within 1% of what I expect

The Florida number is not even slightly believable.

What is not believable about a 4 point lead in Florida? That is only 5% better than 2016. Biden is polling 6+% better nationally. Biden is getting disproportionately big swings from seniors. Florida is a state with a ton of seniors. Biden + 4 seems pretty believable to me

Are you doubting the poll because you don’t like it, or because you have some basis in facts?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

There's an orthodoxy based on the 2010s elections that Florida is invariably razor-thin regardless of the national environment. But Obama won it by 3 in 2008 and, before that, Dubya won it by 5 in 2004, so clearly it is capable of producing low-to-mid-single-digit results. It just hasn't done so in the last few cycles.

[Buzz]

I’ll believe it when I see it (luckily only 2 weeks)

What is unbelievable about these polls? All 3 of these results are within 1% of what I expect

The Florida number is not even slightly believable.

What is not believable about a 4 point lead in Florida? That is only 5% better than 2016. Biden is polling 6+% better nationally. Biden is getting disproportionately big swings from seniors. Florida is a state with a ton of seniors. Biden + 4 seems pretty believable to me

Are you doubting the poll because you don’t like it, or because you have some basis in facts?

The Nation was D+9 in 2018 and R’s won Florida.  Nobody is winning Florida by 4 points lol.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I’ll believe it when I see it (luckily only 2 weeks)

What is unbelievable about these polls? All 3 of these results are within 1% of what I expect

The Florida number is not even slightly believable.

What is not believable about a 4 point lead in Florida? That is only 5% better than 2016. Biden is polling 6+% better nationally. Biden is getting disproportionately big swings from seniors. Florida is a state with a ton of seniors. Biden + 4 seems pretty believable to me

Are you doubting the poll because you don’t like it, or because you have some basis in facts?

The Nation was D+9 in 2018 and R’s won Florida.  Nobody is winning Florida by 4 points lol.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida

[tagimaucia]

I’ll believe it when I see it (luckily only 2 weeks)

What is unbelievable about these polls? All 3 of these results are within 1% of what I expect

The Florida number is not even slightly believable.

What is not believable about a 4 point lead in Florida? That is only 5% better than 2016. Biden is polling 6+% better nationally. Biden is getting disproportionately big swings from seniors. Florida is a state with a ton of seniors. Biden + 4 seems pretty believable to me

Are you doubting the poll because you don’t like it, or because you have some basis in facts?

The Nation was D+9 in 2018 and R’s won Florida.  Nobody is winning Florida by 4 points lol.

The national house vote was D+7 when you take into account all the uncontested races nationwide (there were a ton of races with no R candidates), it wasn't a true +9 environment.  I do agree that Florida has drifted further relatively to the right (probably now 5-6 points to the right of the country as opposed to 3 in 2016).

[Rand]

Biden will win Florida by double digits.

[Gustaf]

You also can't do a straight comparison to 2018. Trump won by 1% while losing by 2% nationally in 2016, so it was R +3 that year. We're looking at something like a D+7 to D+11 environment right now which would put Florida at D +4-8. Now you can argue Florida is trending R so it will be a bit better for Trump than that but there is nothing unbelievable about Biden +4.

[tagimaucia]

Very happy to see that the top-two primary initiative (in Florida) is failing in this poll.  Wasn't it winning in many past polls?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Very happy to see that the top-two primary initiative (in Florida) is failing in this poll.  Wasn't it winning in many past polls?

Yes, but keep in mind that all of these Florida initiatives are failing if they don't clear the 60% threshold.

[Calthrina950]

Florida is still a Tossup, perhaps Tilt/Lean D at this point. But Minnesota and Nevada are completely out of reach for Trump, and this poll merely provides further confirmation of that. It is far more likely that he loses those states by double digits at this point, then managing to pull off an upset victory in them.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I’ll believe it when I see it (luckily only 2 weeks)

What is unbelievable about these polls? All 3 of these results are within 1% of what I expect

The Florida number is not even slightly believable.

What is not believable about a 4 point lead in Florida? That is only 5% better than 2016. Biden is polling 6+% better nationally. Biden is getting disproportionately big swings from seniors. Florida is a state with a ton of seniors. Biden + 4 seems pretty believable to me

Are you doubting the poll because you don’t like it, or because you have some basis in facts?

The Nation was D+9 in 2018 and R’s won Florida.  Nobody is winning Florida by 4 points lol.

What are you looking at exactly? All the unopposed races in FL in 2018 were in Safe Democratic seats. Had they had challengers the Democrats likely would have won Florida by around 4 points.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’ll believe it when I see it (luckily only 2 weeks)

What is unbelievable about these polls? All 3 of these results are within 1% of what I expect

The Florida number is not even slightly believable.

What is not believable about a 4 point lead in Florida? That is only 5% better than 2016. Biden is polling 6+% better nationally. Biden is getting disproportionately big swings from seniors. Florida is a state with a ton of seniors. Biden + 4 seems pretty believable to me

Are you doubting the poll because you don’t like it, or because you have some basis in facts?

The Nation was D+9 in 2018 and R’s won Florida.  Nobody is winning Florida by 4 points lol.

Democrats also won a Senate Seat in WV, and the national environment is simillar. Therefore WV is a tossup.

In all seriousness though, that's pretty poor logic, especially in a state like FL where turnout has a pretty stark drop off in off years, and a state that tends to be more R down ballot (FL-SEN 2016). FL also had several safe D House seats that weren't contested so take the House PV with a grain of salt. Now if Soctt or DeSantis got a higher raw vote total than Trump, that would be something else...

[Sir Mohamed]

If polling isn't that much off, it really looks like FL is breaking away from Trump. MN and NV were never within reach anyway, and for sure not in a D+9 environment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I remember Bush W was leading in NV at this time by 10 points 52-42, how global warming and fracking has changed the World since then and CO 49/43 percent. That's why OR will never vote R again, China produce coal and electric cars and we must do the same. Any Wildfire state will go D

[MplsDem]

Amy Klobuchar only +3 in favorablity? I find that a bit hard to believe. Besides that, the MN poll looks reasonable, 38% with a college degree, Walz +10 favorable.

[wbrocks67]

Amy Klobuchar only +3 in favorablity? I find that a bit hard to believe. Besides that, the MN poll looks reasonable, 38% with a college degree, Walz +10 favorable.

Civiqs favorabilities are always weird, I wouldn't put too much stock into them

[Figueira]

There's an orthodoxy based on the 2010s elections that Florida is invariably razor-thin regardless of the national environment. But Obama won it by 3 in 2008 and, before that, Dubya won it by 5 in 2004, so clearly it is capable of producing low-to-mid-single-digit results. It just hasn't done so in the last few cycles.

I think there's also an orthodoxy that Florida is Lean R. I think this is largely because of a "They can have it, for all I care" attitude on the left. Florida just isn't as "likeable" as, say, Iowa or Pennsylvania, and at the same time it doesn't have the allure of "We're winning it for the first time in a while" that Texas, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina have.

I’ll believe it when I see it (luckily only 2 weeks)

What is unbelievable about these polls? All 3 of these results are within 1% of what I expect

The Florida number is not even slightly believable.

What is not believable about a 4 point lead in Florida? That is only 5% better than 2016. Biden is polling 6+% better nationally. Biden is getting disproportionately big swings from seniors. Florida is a state with a ton of seniors. Biden + 4 seems pretty believable to me

Are you doubting the poll because you don’t like it, or because you have some basis in facts?

The Nation was D+9 in 2018 and R’s won Florida.  Nobody is winning Florida by 4 points lol.

The nation could easily be D+9 again, or more, if national polls are to be believed, and a 4 point swing is not unheard of, and could easily be explained by the shift among seniors, not to mention the fact that Senate races are more esoteric than presidential ones.