FL, MN, NV - Civiqs/DailyKos: Biden +4, +10, +9

[tagimaucia]

Amy Klobuchar only +3 in favorablity? I find that a bit hard to believe. Besides that, the MN poll looks reasonable, 38% with a college degree, Walz +10 favorable.

Civiqs favorabilities are always weird, I wouldn't put too much stock into them

Their favorable numbers for Republicans tend to match other polls, but their favorables for Democrats are always way way way (like double digits) below other polls. It's very weird.

[Badger]

I’ll believe it when I see it (luckily only 2 weeks)

What is unbelievable about these polls? All 3 of these results are within 1% of what I expect

Buzz talks tough - - repeatedly, incessantly, unthinkingly - - but I think that his delusion is just an act and he cries himself to sleep most nights.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I’ll believe it when I see it (luckily only 2 weeks)

What is unbelievable about these polls? All 3 of these results are within 1% of what I expect

Buzz talks tough - - repeatedly, incessantly, unthinkingly - - but I think that his delusion is just an act and he cries himself to sleep most nights.

This is a really weird post. Why are you making fun of him like that? Even if he was crying himself to sleep at night, why would you mock that? Trying to humiliate people is one of the worst things you can do

[GeorgiaModerate]

Don't pick on Buzz.  He's an unabashed Trump partisan, which certainly appears to color his evaluations, but he's good-natured and not at all hostile about his positions (unlike several other posters who shall remain nameless).

[tagimaucia]

Buzz might be wrong or over-confident (or might not, who knows), but I've never seen him be nasty or mean to anyone on here. 

Maybe his "I'm bookmarking this" posts are a little aggressive, but hey, if he's wrong, you can also throw all those posts back in his face in two weeks...

[Badger]

I’ll believe it when I see it (luckily only 2 weeks)

What is unbelievable about these polls? All 3 of these results are within 1% of what I expect

Buzz talks tough - - repeatedly, incessantly, unthinkingly - - but I think that his delusion is just an act and he cries himself to sleep most nights.

This is a really weird post. Why are you making fun of him like that? Even if he was crying himself to sleep at night, why would you mock that? Trying to humiliate people is one of the worst things you can do

Because Buzz is a OneNote Wonder poster who says the same thing in every single thread without offering a scintilla of argument as to why. It is annoyingly grating at best, and obnoxious at worst.

Secondly, see my sig.

That said, maybe I'm being a bit hard on him as he is the least obnoxious of the Usual Suspects Goon Squad. I'll just say that I learned something last night which literally kept me up till almost 5 in the morning, as it brought this so-called political campaign very close to my family in a way that makes me want to at a very personal and justifiable level reject anyone and everyone still willing to support this literal fascist bastard in the white house. I'm debating whether or not to create a thread to share the matter, but suffice to say I'm about 10 steps past triggered to the point of debating for the first time in my life whether or not to get a gun

[MT Treasurer]

There's an orthodoxy based on the 2010s elections that Florida is invariably razor-thin regardless of the national environment. But Obama won it by 3 in 2008 and, before that, Dubya won it by 5 in 2004, so clearly it is capable of producing low-to-mid-single-digit results. It just hasn't done so in the last few cycles.

Yeah, but the image of Rick Scott being projected as the winner/FL flipping red on the Senate maps of NYT, Politico, CNN, etc. (especially after a somewhat protracted recount battle) has been burned into people's minds forever even if the objective reality remains that a slight change in outside factors or even sheer chance could have produced a Democratic victory with a near-identical county map/result, as it did in the Agriculture Commissioner race. The meme itself is hilarious, but the hysterical/illogical FL takes are testament to the powerful, long-lasting impact of single peculiar (negative) events/outcomes on the human psyche. If a little more than 5,000 Puerto Ricans who saw Rick Scott in a good light due to his tenure as governor/outreach to Democratic-leaning voter groups/etc. but held unfavorable opinions of Trump/national Republicans had changed their minds and voted for Nelson, Titanium Tilt R Florida would be tipping-point Florida right now because even their best possible Republican candidate/strongest recruit of the cycle couldn’t beat sleepy Bill Nelson!

Sure, there was no third-party candidate on the ballot in 2018, Scott outspent Nelson almost 3-to-1 and had higher favorability/approval numbers than Trump, Nelson did worse than Biden seems to be among seniors/retirees, Scott's campaign reached out more efficiently to non-white voters than Trump ever will, etc., but too bad all of this + current polling/fundamentals do not matter, as red FL is indelibly engraved in the minds of Atlas posters suffering from PTSD.

[Horus]

I’ll believe it when I see it (luckily only 2 weeks)

What is unbelievable about these polls? All 3 of these results are within 1% of what I expect

Buzz talks tough - - repeatedly, incessantly, unthinkingly - - but I think that his delusion is just an act and he cries himself to sleep most nights.

This is a really weird post. Why are you making fun of him like that? Even if he was crying himself to sleep at night, why would you mock that? Trying to humiliate people is one of the worst things you can do

Because Buzz is a OneNote Wonder poster who says the same thing in every single thread without offering a scintilla of argument as to why. It is annoyingly grating at best, and obnoxious at worst.

Secondly, see my sig

There are a couple D posters who do the same thing and so does Woodbury. Buzz is alright.

[Illini Moderate]

You can't give Buzz crap for being biased. Many D's on here are also biased yet never get criticized because their opinions are in line with the majority. I would rather this forum didn't turn into an echo chamber so can we please not chase another person off the forum by being dismissive and condescending simply because they have an unpopular opinion.

[It’s so Joever]

I’ll believe it when I see it (luckily only 2 weeks)

What is unbelievable about these polls? All 3 of these results are within 1% of what I expect

Buzz talks tough - - repeatedly, incessantly, unthinkingly - - but I think that his delusion is just an act and he cries himself to sleep most nights.

This is a really weird post. Why are you making fun of him like that? Even if he was crying himself to sleep at night, why would you mock that? Trying to humiliate people is one of the worst things you can do

You misspelled “best”.

[Xing]

Here's how Trump can still win Nevada:

[TheLaRocca]

There's an orthodoxy based on the 2010s elections that Florida is invariably razor-thin regardless of the national environment. But Obama won it by 3 in 2008 and, before that, Dubya won it by 5 in 2004, so clearly it is capable of producing low-to-mid-single-digit results. It just hasn't done so in the last few cycles.

Yeah, but the image of Rick Scott being projected as the winner/FL flipping red on the Senate maps of NYT, Politico, CNN, etc. (especially after a somewhat protracted recount battle) has been burned into people's minds forever even if the objective reality remains that a slight change in outside factors or even sheer chance could have produced a Democratic victory with a near-identical county map/result, as it did in the Agriculture Commissioner race. The meme itself is hilarious, but the hysterical/illogical FL takes are testament to the powerful, long-lasting impact of single peculiar (negative) events/outcomes on the human psyche. If a little more than 5,000 Puerto Ricans who saw Rick Scott in a good light due to his tenure as governor/outreach to Democratic-leaning voter groups/etc. but held unfavorable opinions of Trump/national Republicans had changed their minds and voted for Nelson, Titanium Tilt R Florida would be tipping-point Florida right now because even their best possible Republican candidate/strongest recruit of the cycle couldn’t beat sleepy Bill Nelson!

Sure, there was no third-party candidate on the ballot in 2018, Scott outspent Nelson almost 3-to-1 and had higher favorability/approval numbers than Trump, Nelson did worse than Biden seems to be among seniors/retirees, Scott's campaign reached out more efficiently to non-white voters than Trump ever will, etc., but too bad all of this + current polling/fundamentals do not matter, as red FL is indelibly engraved in the minds of Atlas posters suffering from PTSD.

Yeah if 2020 environment > worse then 2018

and Biden > Nelson with Seniors and > Nelson in Dade

then how does he lose FL if its a +10 Biden lead?

[Hammy]

I’ll believe it when I see it (luckily only 2 weeks)

What is unbelievable about these polls? All 3 of these results are within 1% of what I expect

The Florida number is not even slightly believable.

None of them have been.

[TheLaRocca]

I think this is fine. But Minnesota is def not that blue.

Trump is favored in the Iron Range according to polling. But he does MUCH worse in Minneapolis suburbia and southern Minnesota. Should win by 5-6ish.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I think this is fine. But Minnesota is def not that blue.

Trump is favored in the Iron Range according to polling. But he does MUCH worse in Minneapolis suburbia and southern Minnesota. Should win by 5-6ish.

No. Biden will win MN by 7-10%.

[It’s so Joever]

I think this is fine. But Minnesota is def not that blue.

Trump is favored in the Iron Range according to polling. But he does MUCH worse in Minneapolis suburbia and southern Minnesota. Should win by 5-6ish.

No. Biden will win MN by 7-10%.

This is what delusion looks like

[TheLaRocca]

I think this is fine. But Minnesota is def not that blue.

Trump is favored in the Iron Range according to polling. But he does MUCH worse in Minneapolis suburbia and southern Minnesota. Should win by 5-6ish.

No. Biden will win MN by 7-10%.

Polling indicates Trump is doing quite well in the Iron Range.

Suburbs will save Biden in MN and some farming swings. That's really it though.

he's not beaking 7% lol.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I think this is fine. But Minnesota is def not that blue.

Trump is favored in the Iron Range according to polling. But he does MUCH worse in Minneapolis suburbia and southern Minnesota. Should win by 5-6ish.

No. Biden will win MN by 7-10%.

This is what delusion looks like

LOL, you're a consistent doomer. I'm not the delusional one here.

I think this is fine. But Minnesota is def not that blue.

Trump is favored in the Iron Range according to polling. But he does MUCH worse in Minneapolis suburbia and southern Minnesota. Should win by 5-6ish.

No. Biden will win MN by 7-10%.

Polling indicates Trump is doing quite well in the Iron Range.

Suburbs will save Biden in MN and some farming swings. That's really it though.

he's not beaking 7% lol.

You can mock me on Election Day, if I'm wrong .

[Hammy]

I think this is fine. But Minnesota is def not that blue.

Trump is favored in the Iron Range according to polling. But he does MUCH worse in Minneapolis suburbia and southern Minnesota. Should win by 5-6ish.

No. Biden will win MN by 7-10%.

This is what delusion looks like

Nobody who thinks Minnesota will be close has given a reasonable explanation as to why.

[TheLaRocca]

I think this is fine. But Minnesota is def not that blue.

Trump is favored in the Iron Range according to polling. But he does MUCH worse in Minneapolis suburbia and southern Minnesota. Should win by 5-6ish.

No. Biden will win MN by 7-10%.

This is what delusion looks like

Nobody who thinks Minnesota will be close has given a reasonable explanation as to why.

Um, I have like five times.

You guys just chose to ignore any analysis that does not have the Democrats winning by massive margins in the midwest (despite polling tell you its close).

[WD]

I think this is fine. But Minnesota is def not that blue.

Trump is favored in the Iron Range according to polling. But he does MUCH worse in Minneapolis suburbia and southern Minnesota. Should win by 5-6ish.

No. Biden will win MN by 7-10%.

This is what delusion looks like

Nobody who thinks Minnesota will be close has given a reasonable explanation as to why.

Um, I have like five times.

You guys just chose to ignore any analysis that does not have the Democrats winning by massive margins in the midwest (despite polling tell you its close).

You seriously think MN is a tossup? lmao

[exopolitician]

I think this is fine. But Minnesota is def not that blue.

Trump is favored in the Iron Range according to polling. But he does MUCH worse in Minneapolis suburbia and southern Minnesota. Should win by 5-6ish.

No. Biden will win MN by 7-10%.

This is what delusion looks like

Nobody who thinks Minnesota will be close has given a reasonable explanation as to why.

Um, I have like five times.

You guys just chose to ignore any analysis that does not have the Democrats winning by massive margins in the midwest (despite polling tell you its close).

You seriously think MN is a tossup? lmao

No, he said Biden will win it by 5-6 which doesn't seem unreasonable.

[WD]

I think this is fine. But Minnesota is def not that blue.

Trump is favored in the Iron Range according to polling. But he does MUCH worse in Minneapolis suburbia and southern Minnesota. Should win by 5-6ish.

No. Biden will win MN by 7-10%.

This is what delusion looks like

Nobody who thinks Minnesota will be close has given a reasonable explanation as to why.

Um, I have like five times.

You guys just chose to ignore any analysis that does not have the Democrats winning by massive margins in the midwest (despite polling tell you its close).

You seriously think MN is a tossup? lmao

No, he said Biden will win it by 5-6 which doesn't seem unreasonable.

Oh nevermind.

[TheLaRocca]

I think this is fine. But Minnesota is def not that blue.

Trump is favored in the Iron Range according to polling. But he does MUCH worse in Minneapolis suburbia and southern Minnesota. Should win by 5-6ish.

No. Biden will win MN by 7-10%.

This is what delusion looks like

Nobody who thinks Minnesota will be close has given a reasonable explanation as to why.

Um, I have like five times.

You guys just chose to ignore any analysis that does not have the Democrats winning by massive margins in the midwest (despite polling tell you its close).

You seriously think MN is a tossup? lmao

I think Minnesota is about 3 to 4% to the right of the nation.

So if Bidens up by 10 nationally (per 538) he's ahead by about 5 to 6 in Minnesota.

[WD]

I think this is fine. But Minnesota is def not that blue.

Trump is favored in the Iron Range according to polling. But he does MUCH worse in Minneapolis suburbia and southern Minnesota. Should win by 5-6ish.

No. Biden will win MN by 7-10%.

This is what delusion looks like

Nobody who thinks Minnesota will be close has given a reasonable explanation as to why.

Um, I have like five times.

You guys just chose to ignore any analysis that does not have the Democrats winning by massive margins in the midwest (despite polling tell you its close).

You seriously think MN is a tossup? lmao

I think Minnesota is about 3 to 4% to the right of the nation.

So if Bidens up by 10 nationally (per 538) he's ahead by about 5 to 6 in Minnesota.

That seems pretty reasonable (depending on how MN trends). Although I think he’ll win by about 7-8 in the end.