Likelihood of SCOTUS Nightmare

[Fwillb21]

Continued: SCOTUS sides with Trump and hands him a second term, in spite of Biden having won the EC comfortably, perhaps even a landslide. The people go insane over this as imagined, and who knows what happens to the future of our nation?

How likely do you think this is to happen?

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

If Biden wins by a comfortable margin in the EC, then Trump has to accept the results one way or another.  

Hot take: All the fears surrounding VBM issues, Trump refusing to concede etc will be proven to be unfounded when the networks call the election for Biden between 9PM and 1AM eastern time and Trump will be irate for a few days but concedes a week later.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CJ Roberts won't allow uncounted ballots to be thrown out and neither will ACB, its unlikely even an R Crt will overturn Bidens victory. That's why provisional ballots were initiated due to Bush v Gore

[Inmate Trump]

I fully expect Trump to go all out in trying to remain in power.

Even if he clearly loses.  Even if there is no question that he's lost.

[Alben Barkley]

If Biden wins comfortably, Trump’s just not gonna be able to seriously challenge the result.

If it’s close enough to be semi-legitimately disputable, that’s another story.

[compucomp]

By comfortably wins, let's say Biden has 300+ EV and the tipping point is at least D+2. Trump may try to sue and repeatedly appeal, I think it's very unlikely that the Supreme Court would overturn that. The judges Trump has appointed (Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, ACB) may have judicial views that we don't agree with, but they are still stewards of the law and the Constitution and they are not flunkies loyal to Trump alone. These guys are not Eric, Don Jr, and Ivanka.

[ultraviolet]

I think Trump might try this, but I like to think that, after everything, the SCOTUS will make the right decision

[Turbo Flame]

Unpopular opinion: I think it's somewhat likely.

[Ljube]

Impossible.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It seems to be Trump and the GOP's endgame. That's why Biden needs to be victorious by as much as possible, and as soon as possible. I don't think it will be more than bluster if that's the case.

Obviously this scenario is still likelier than it should be. Any nightmare scenario in 2020 is.

[Horsemask]

I voted "not very likely" but I agree with the others that if Biden wins decisively, which is where we appear to be heading, this SCOTUS nightmare scenario absolutely will not happen.

[NewYorkExpress]

Even if Biden wins all 538 electoral votes, I expect the Supreme Court will overturn the election in favor of Trump (unless Roberts and Gorsuch decide to surprise me).

[Stuart98]

Unpopular opinion: I think it's somewhat likely.

If Biden wins by <300 EVs then Trump might at least try this (though he's unlikely to succeed). If we get the 413 map (or anything approaching it), then Trump probably won't even bother.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

No.

Gorsuch, Roberts, Kavanaugh, AND ACB reject it.

[sguberman]

I think the fact that both Kavanaugh and Roberts allowed for non witness signed ballots in South Carolina to be allowed if they came in before October 7th (Not the I agree with the full ruling) it makes me pretty skeptical Trump would have five votes to overturn the election for no reason.

[Ferguson97]

In a comfortable win? No.

In a close win? Possibly, but still unlikely.

[brucejoel99]

Even if Biden wins all 538 electoral votes, I expect the Supreme Court will overturn the election in favor of Trump (unless Roberts and Gorsuch decide to surprise me).

lol who you think John Roberts is & who John Roberts actually is are 2 *very* different people

[Hammy]

This is my expectation. Whether they rule in his favor in the end I'm not as certain, but he's definitely going to at least try and make this play out.

One thing I can guarantee is he'll do everything in his power to make sure the true results are disputed for generations.

[Badger]

Definitely depends on the margin a victory. I hate to say it but it has to be a thorough and decisive defeat in the Electoral College, meaning there have to be enough States putting Vine over the top of 270 which are not particularly close this means at minimum decisive wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona even if other states like North Carolina and Florida are closer. Otherwise I can absolutely the Republican legislatures of those States trying to redo 1876 on us with horsesh**t claims of voter fraud.

That happens and goes Never Lie up to the scotus, just consider this. Bush vs Gore was by any reasonable account ABS decision. While there are reasonable arguments as to whether the recount had it not stopped would have actually delivered Florida to gore, the basis for the majority opinion was pure drack. Scalia could've and would've easily switch size on the equal protection argument in a heartbeat to protect the recount if it was Bush demanding it.

Now consider how evolved - - or perhaps rather how devolved - - the new court is especially with a CB on it. You expect a better decision out of this court and the nine justices who ruled on Bush V Gore?

The fact that Trump even somewhat has a chance yet despite being grossly down in the polls, all because of electoral college math demonstrates how desperately that anachronistic tgis effed system needs scrapped. I fully expect the next close election is going to be for something like the 5th election where Democrats win a tangible popular vote Victory only to have the Electoral College mechanics and emphasis on smaller States deliver Victory to the Republicans. That partisan advantage is frankly the only reason it exists anymore.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Definitely depends on the margin a victory. I hate to say it but it has to be a thorough and decisive defeat in the Electoral College, meaning there have to be enough States putting Vine over the top of 270 which are not particularly close this means at minimum decisive wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona even if other states like North Carolina and Florida are closer. Otherwise I can absolutely the Republican legislatures of those States trying to redo 1876 on us with horsesh**t claims of voter fraud.

That happens and goes Never Lie up to the scotus, just consider this. Bush vs Gore was by any reasonable account ABS decision. While there are reasonable arguments as to whether the recount had it not stopped would have actually delivered Florida to gore, the basis for the majority opinion was pure drack. Scalia could've and would've easily switch size on the equal protection argument in a heartbeat to protect the recount if it was Bush demanding it.

Now consider how evolved - - or perhaps rather how devolved - - the new court is especially with a CB on it. You expect a better decision out of this court and the nine justices who ruled on Bush V Gore?

The fact that Trump even somewhat has a chance yet despite being grossly down in the polls, all because of electoral college math demonstrates how desperately that anachronistic tgis effed system needs scrapped. I fully expect the next close election is going to be for something like the 5th election where Democrats win a tangible popular vote Victory only to have the Electoral College mechanics and emphasis on smaller States deliver Victory to the Republicans. That partisan advantage is frankly the only reason it exists anymore.

The EC advantage could easily flip back to the Democrats in the not so distant future if GOP is running up huge margins in these smaller, rural states, while states like TX and/or FL start voting to the left of the NPV (FL has been a big reason why the electoral college has favored the GOP is recent years)

[DaleCooper]

I don't think SCOTUS will hear a case on the election unless it's a 2000 situation where it comes down to a few hundred votes in one state that hasn't been called well into December, and even then I believe they'll err on the side of allowing each vote to be counted.

Maybe I'm being naive, but I suspect that these conservative justices realize that if they brazenly overstep and try to subvert democracy for someone like Trump, then they're very likely to be made obsolete. I firmly believe that a Trump loss getting turned into an illegitimate Trump victory will result in unprecedented instability followed by massive restructuring of the institutions that protected Trump, mainly the Senate and SCOTUS, once the nightmare is over. Why would they risk the monopoly on the courts that they already have purely to protect Trump?

[SnowLabrador]

Somewhat likely, I'd say. They're in Trump's pocket, all of them.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

By comfortably wins, let's say Biden has 300+ EV and the tipping point is at least D+2. Trump may try to sue and repeatedly appeal, I think it's very unlikely that the Supreme Court would overturn that. The judges Trump has appointed (Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, ACB) may have judicial views that we don't agree with, but they are still stewards of the law and the Constitution and they are not flunkies loyal to Trump alone. These guys are not Eric, Don Jr, and Ivanka.

I agree with this. I mean Trump owns appointees voted against him on both of the Trump tax records cases, which I think so they are no Trump sycophants

And if you do think they are just GOP hacks (which I would disagree with) can you think of anyway better for them to preserve their power than a reverse Bush v. Gore which would completely take the winds out of the sails of court packing.

[Senator Spark]

I think this is the exact scenario that will happen after election day.. for the sake of our democracy let's hope it doesn't.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I watched the ACB hearings today, she doesn't seem like she will overturn the election results if they come out against Trump. Being a Conservative females, she can't be demonized either. D's have been calling on a center right female when Bush W appointed Alito and Gorsuch and now we have one. They still aren't happy.

I am an election judge, the provisional ballots were created by Bush W as a backup if the signature is in dispute, you check the address of the voter, trust me, ACB and Roberts wants the ballots to be cointed