COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Sol]

There's not a future where we don't have rolling covid epidemics, variants, etc. for the rest of our lives. Things will get better of course but it's a slow path down. In all likelihood, every single person on the planet will get covid or a descendant, possibly about once a year. The costs of this will be reduced by excellent treatments, the amazing MRNA vaccine technology we have now, and by increasing rates of immunity, but just like the common cold, there's evidence that this immunity will fade or be evaded in ways that won't stop ever-present transmission. But covid will never go away and will probably notch a nasty cost, much like influenza.

Realistically then, how can we calibrate our response to the covid pandemic? The promise of restrictions, social distancing, and masks was that they would postpone the inevitable harm of covid, at first until it could be eradicated, and when that clearly became impossible, until the harm could be cut down to minimal level. The harm has been cut but it's fairly clear that covid has a permanent foothold in human and animal populations.

Then, there's really only two responses: either you are in favor of continuing these precautions indefinitely, to stave off what can be staved off (which is very little) or you acknowledge that we're in a new normal where many people will die of covid.

The former is very appealing, as denial often is--but it is denial. Many of these interventions are quite ineffective and have very poor compliance, and the one that does the most--social distancing--bears the most horrific cost and had astonishingly low rates of compliance even in the worst days of 2020.

The latter is much less appealing, because it shows that there has to be a grim reckoning of whether these precautions are worth the awful cost of delayed surgeries, major learning delays, and social isolation and the consequent mental health crises. There is a lot to be done to lower the cost that covid will exact on us--improving ventilation, encouraging work from home, mandating paid sick leave, and creating as many accommodations as possible to make it so that immuno-compromised people can keep themselves safe, including a comprehensive social safety net which can allow people to live well without having to work. We should also try paying people to get vaccinated, and that's something that we oughta shell out the big bucks for. But the unfortunate truth is that covid exists and will keep on killing and disabling people no matter what we do, and attempting to impose various draconian interventions with massive downsides with no clear end in site just immiserates people.

Ultimately, I understand where the restrictionists are coming from, but listen: you all aren't looking at reality. Covid is here forever, and every single person on the planet will get it again and again, plus most deers and minks and whatever. There's no staving this off. And frankly, in America the choice is lifting everything now or after the midterm elections, with additional policies designed to torment trans teenagers and destroy public schools. People are wrong when they say covid is over--covid is normal and will always be so, and recognizing that we can't live in a strange and damaging way to avoid something as fundamental to present conditions as sunlight and the wind is just recognizing reality.

[T'Chenka]

Ultimately, I understand where the restrictionists are coming from, but listen: you all aren't looking at reality.

To be fair, a lot of the restrictionists you see talking right now are people who are saying "this has not been confirmed to be endemic yet, you people need to chill out and stop demanding post-pandemic policies when we aren't even certain that we're out of the pandemic yet". Endemic policy and pandemic policy are two different things. Fauci, the WHO, and all kinds of scientists all over the place have not come out and flat out said "the pandemic is over". People are looking at the numbers and assuming it is, and they MIGHT be right, yes, but the actual scientific community has not come to that conclusion yet. If your government takes science seriously, they will wait for that announcement to move into endemic policies and keep pandemic policies for now.

[Pericles]

Oh by the way, the pandemic is far from over and COVID will come back in force. Mask mandates will come back. My bet remains open to any takers.

It is why Republicans should put up ballot measures in blue states that ban the government from having the power to implement mask mandates.

And if a new pandemic comes around that can kill lots more people, those governments will still have the power to lock down almost everyone.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Oh by the way, the pandemic is far from over and COVID will come back in force. Mask mandates will come back. My bet remains open to any takers.

It is why Republicans should put up ballot measures in blue states that ban the government from having the power to implement mask mandates.

And if a new pandemic comes around that can kill lots more people, those governments will still have the power to lock down almost everyone.

Well id specify then banning any COVID restrictions rather than any restriction that can be used to stop a new pandemic in the future

[T'Chenka]

Oh by the way, the pandemic is far from over and COVID will come back in force. Mask mandates will come back. My bet remains open to any takers.

It is why Republicans should put up ballot measures in blue states that ban the government from having the power to implement mask mandates.

And if a new pandemic comes around that can kill lots more people, those governments will still have the power to lock down almost everyone.

Well id specify then banning any COVID restrictions rather than any restriction that can be used to stop a new pandemic in the future

Hypothetical: the new pandemic is an insane strain of COVID that is way different and way deadlier but did evolve from COVID, so for legal and scientific purposes, it is considered a form of COVID.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Oh by the way, the pandemic is far from over and COVID will come back in force. Mask mandates will come back. My bet remains open to any takers.

It is why Republicans should put up ballot measures in blue states that ban the government from having the power to implement mask mandates.

And if a new pandemic comes around that can kill lots more people, those governments will still have the power to lock down almost everyone.

Well id specify then banning any COVID restrictions rather than any restriction that can be used to stop a new pandemic in the future

Hypothetical: the new pandemic is an insane strain of COVID that is way different and way deadlier but did evolve from COVID, so for legal and scientific purposes, it is considered a form of COVID.

Well at the very least then put limits on the power of the government to impose Mask Mandate. It should not have been implemented since May of 2021 and its the Pro Mask Mandate people's fault that all of us are sick and tired of any restrictions not our fault.

[T'Chenka]

Hypothetical: the new pandemic is an insane strain of COVID that is way different and way deadlier but did evolve from COVID, so for legal and scientific purposes, it is considered a form of COVID.

Well at the very least then put limits on the power of the government to impose Mask Mandate. It should not have been implemented since May of 2021 and its the Pro Mask Mandate people's fault that all of us are sick and tired of any restrictions not our fault.

It shouldn't really matter how sick and tired of restrictions you are, it should only matter how necessary they are. We're entering a phase now where people questioning how necessary the restrictions are, but it was pretty clear that they were necessary for a long time.
Your feelings and you being inconvenienced only matters so much. When COVID was way more of a serious problem, there were bigger fish to fry than worrying about how inconvenient some people thought masks were.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hypothetical: the new pandemic is an insane strain of COVID that is way different and way deadlier but did evolve from COVID, so for legal and scientific purposes, it is considered a form of COVID.

Well at the very least then put limits on the power of the government to impose Mask Mandate. It should not have been implemented since May of 2021 and its the Pro Mask Mandate people's fault that all of us are sick and tired of any restrictions not our fault.

It shouldn't really matter how sick and tired of restrictions you are, it should only matter how necessary they are. We're entering a phase now where people questioning how necessary the restrictions are, but it was pretty clear that they were necessary for a long time.
Your feelings and you being inconvenienced only matters so much. When COVID was way more of a serious problem, there were bigger fish to fry than worrying about how inconvenient some people thought masks were.

I was pro Mask Mandate Till May of 2021

[Pericles]

Maybe it should have been linked to a vaccination target? That would both provide clarity and give people an incentive to get vaccinated.

Of course it's hard to know what's achievable, in America you can barely achieve 70% of adults double dosed while in New Zealand it takes three months of all adults being eligible to get to 90%.

[Dr. MB]

I genuinely hope masks stay as a fashion thing. Not because I like it, but ONLY because it will be a very slight bit of joy in an otherwise dark time (the early RP state will be the worst prolly) to see the conservatives getting upset.

Yes my parents may be gone, I may be in a cell, but at least the cons will be a bit triggered.

Study: Masks make people look more attractive. I wouldn't know if this is accurate, but I know for some people the area covered by the mask is less attractive than the rest of their face.

Yeah it’s the truth. I’ve seen many people where I might turn my head at first but then they take their mask off and it’s a hard pass.

Especially never trust anyone who only has pics of themselves in masks on Tinder. What are they hiding?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Masks in schools are important. I've never been a fan of outdoor mask mandates, personally, once you understand how the virus works. I don't like people walking by me breathing on me during the pandemic so I sometimes wear a mask on a busy street as to "do unto others as you'd prefer they do unto you". Sometimes I'm walking from a place where I need to wear a mask to another place where I need to wear a mask, so sometimes I'm just too lazy to take it off and put it back on again. It's really not a big deal. People that get triggered by that make me laugh (not accusing you).

Yeah, I live in a big city where as far as I know there is no outdoor mask mandate and every time I go outside I estimate that about 75% of the people still voluntarily wear their masks outdoors. It's not really a big deal. Of course most city streets are pretty crowded so I get why one could be unconfortable not wearing it, I'm not talking about a rural area here. In any case, being this triggered about someone using a mask is pretty bizarre, I mean, who cares? The amount of whining over this nonsense in this thread sometimes baffles me.

And for the record I only use a mask where I'm required to and to be honest I haven't even though about Covid that much in the past 6 months except for planning my Euro trip.

Saying something is dumb is not equal to being triggered, lmao. (School closures does get me "triggered", I admit it).

Wearing mask outside because you're afraid to catch Covid is about as smart as wearing helmet outside because you're afraid of a brick falling on your head. In fact, in Russia the likelihood of something like brick or especially icicle falling on your head is probably much more likely than getting Covid outside

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Here's some good news using the NYT data. This is the percent of hospitalized COVID patients at the start of each month since August 2020 that are in the ICU. Omicron and improved treatments have brought that number to an all-time low in a way that even the vaccination of most of the country was unable to achieve.

That’s the final straw, it’s time to end all mask mandates with practically no exceptions.

No, Biden should have Mask Mandates until the midterms. FoLloW the sCIencE!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's some good news using the NYT data. This is the percent of hospitalized COVID patients at the start of each month since August 2020 that are in the ICU. Omicron and improved treatments have brought that number to an all-time low in a way that even the vaccination of most of the country was unable to achieve.

That’s the final straw, it’s time to end all mask mandates with practically no exceptions.

No, Biden should have Mask Mandates until the midterms. FoLloW the sCIencE!

Precisely!
The Science™ is always, so conveniently, synonymous with my preconceived notions anyway. I'm always right! Oppose me and you are against both my priors, AND scientists!
You wouldn't want to be against science, would you?

[It’s so Joever]

There's not a future where we don't have rolling covid epidemics, variants, etc. for the rest of our lives. Things will get better of course but it's a slow path down. In all likelihood, every single person on the planet will get covid or a descendant, possibly about once a year. The costs of this will be reduced by excellent treatments, the amazing MRNA vaccine technology we have now, and by increasing rates of immunity, but just like the common cold, there's evidence that this immunity will fade or be evaded in ways that won't stop ever-present transmission. But covid will never go away and will probably notch a nasty cost, much like influenza.

Realistically then, how can we calibrate our response to the covid pandemic? The promise of restrictions, social distancing, and masks was that they would postpone the inevitable harm of covid, at first until it could be eradicated, and when that clearly became impossible, until the harm could be cut down to minimal level. The harm has been cut but it's fairly clear that covid has a permanent foothold in human and animal populations.

Then, there's really only two responses: either you are in favor of continuing these precautions indefinitely, to stave off what can be staved off (which is very little) or you acknowledge that we're in a new normal where many people will die of covid.

The former is very appealing, as denial often is--but it is denial. Many of these interventions are quite ineffective and have very poor compliance, and the one that does the most--social distancing--bears the most horrific cost and had astonishingly low rates of compliance even in the worst days of 2020.

The latter is much less appealing, because it shows that there has to be a grim reckoning of whether these precautions are worth the awful cost of delayed surgeries, major learning delays, and social isolation and the consequent mental health crises. There is a lot to be done to lower the cost that covid will exact on us--improving ventilation, encouraging work from home, mandating paid sick leave, and creating as many accommodations as possible to make it so that immuno-compromised people can keep themselves safe, including a comprehensive social safety net which can allow people to live well without having to work. We should also try paying people to get vaccinated, and that's something that we oughta shell out the big bucks for. But the unfortunate truth is that covid exists and will keep on killing and disabling people no matter what we do, and attempting to impose various draconian interventions with massive downsides with no clear end in site just immiserates people.

Ultimately, I understand where the restrictionists are coming from, but listen: you all aren't looking at reality. Covid is here forever, and every single person on the planet will get it again and again, plus most deers and minks and whatever. There's no staving this off. And frankly, in America the choice is lifting everything now or after the midterm elections, with additional policies designed to torment trans teenagers and destroy public schools. People are wrong when they say covid is over--covid is normal and will always be so, and recognizing that we can't live in a strange and damaging way to avoid something as fundamental to present conditions as sunlight and the wind is just recognizing reality.

This is one of the best posts on here in a while. Completely agree and excellent analysis.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1492076208040800257

[Person Man]

One thing I have thought of is how Long COVID and permanent damage from COVID will be dealt with. How will this change our fiscal direction, our social insurance programs, and how will these sorts of medical conditions be dealt with on a medical grounds. Will there be treatments for these things?

[T'Chenka]

One thing I have thought of is how Long COVID and permanent damage from COVID will be dealt with. How will this change our fiscal direction, our social insurance programs, and how will these sorts of medical conditions be dealt with on a medical grounds. Will there be treatments for these things?

I have (and have had for years) a conspiracy theory "COVID doesn't exist" anti-vaxx anti-mask customer who claims to work in insurance and claims COVID hasn't changed ANYTHING in the insurance industry. Take it with a massive grain of salt.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

One thing I have thought of is how Long COVID and permanent damage from COVID will be dealt with. How will this change our fiscal direction, our social insurance programs, and how will these sorts of medical conditions be dealt with on a medical grounds. Will there be treatments for these things?

What percentage of people have "Long Covid"?

[Person Man]

One thing I have thought of is how Long COVID and permanent damage from COVID will be dealt with. How will this change our fiscal direction, our social insurance programs, and how will these sorts of medical conditions be dealt with on a medical grounds. Will there be treatments for these things?

What percentage of people have "Long Covid"?

That's a good question.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Ultimately, I understand where the restrictionists are coming from, but listen: you all aren't looking at reality.

To be fair, a lot of the restrictionists you see talking right now are people who are saying "this has not been confirmed to be endemic yet, you people need to chill out and stop demanding post-pandemic policies when we aren't even certain that we're out of the pandemic yet".

You don't get to say that when you just said "It's never happening. Just accept it." Seriously, do you people think we can't read or something?

[T'Chenka]

To be fair, a lot of the restrictionists you see talking right now are people who are saying "this has not been confirmed to be endemic yet, you people need to chill out and stop demanding post-pandemic policies when we aren't even certain that we're out of the pandemic yet".

You don't get to say that when you just said "It's never happening. Just accept it." Seriously, do you people think we can't read or something?

I wasn't being serious in my exchange with Jimmie. When users posts insane things, I don't always respond 100% seriously.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/SegravesNBC4/status/1493263507692961796

Where is Biden? 👀

[Pericles]

One thing I have thought of is how Long COVID and permanent damage from COVID will be dealt with. How will this change our fiscal direction, our social insurance programs, and how will these sorts of medical conditions be dealt with on a medical grounds. Will there be treatments for these things?

I don't think Long Covid is a severe enough threat to limit people's freedoms and even hurt the economy.

[It’s so Joever]

What even is long Covid? We need some substantiation research into the occurrence, and what we know now isn’t sufficient to make those types of calls.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1493331606446223361