COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Horus]

It will never, ever cease to amaze me that with all of our modern technology, this pandemic is going to end up lasting longer than the 1918 pandemic.

Why has that happened?

A lot more international travel than in 1918--not just in volume, but general ease of travel, as well as being much quicker thanks to air travel--is a big reason for that. So in a twist of irony, that same modern travel has allowed it to ripple around the world a lot more quickly.

How long do you think the pandemic is going to last for? We're nearly two years into it now. I sure hope that we still won't be in "pandemic mode" by 2024.

For me to be satisfied that COVID-19 is no longer a threat, the Omicron variant must dwindle without becoming another threat as another variant. Because of the heritage of SARS-2, the virus behind COVID-19, we must assume the worst.

Samples of the 1918 flu virus behind the last analogous pandemic attacking the respiratory tract have been injected in mice -- who of course died of the virus. I'm ready to claim that COVID-19 is no longer threat the first time that a related virus becomes a triviality.  Even without causing death, SARS-2 can cause diabetes, organ damage, cognitive loss (in essence, stupidity), stillbirths, and sexual dysfunction. None of these is desirable, to put it tamely.

We could get a respite, but that has yet to appear. Enough people have failed to get inoculated that the horrible disease can kill and cripple.

Nah.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/RickFolbaum/status/1481110981099065344

[ilikeverin]

It's okay to stop panicking now:

Omicron may be headed for a rapid drop in US and Britain
----------------

And on a separate note, thanks for changing the thread title Virginia! 

I find it odd that the only numbers actually cited are simulations, but we've had a couple of days of promising numbers from DC... one of the first cities that was badly affected by Omicron, and it's had a couple of days with sharp week-to-week drops in numbers reported.

[Calthrina950]

It's okay to stop panicking now:

Omicron may be headed for a rapid drop in US and Britain
----------------

And on a separate note, thanks for changing the thread title Virginia! 

I find it odd that the only numbers actually cited are simulations, but we've had a couple of days of promising numbers from DC... one of the first cities that was badly affected by Omicron, and it's had a couple of days with sharp week-to-week drops in numbers reported.

If DC is on a downwards trajectory, then why are they doubling down on restrictions such as mask mandates and vaccine passports?

[compucomp]

Keeping schools open is an admirable goal. I think remote learning in general is much less effective than in-person learning. But this is easier said than done; as always the virus couldn't care less what we want. Remote learning is probably better than a hellscape of random substitute teachers, classes replaced by study halls because they can't find enough teachers, and everything consumed by COVID and testing. Parents and students have responded to this by calling for return to remote learning. I think every reasonable effort must be made to get kids in school but the current conditions mean a remote option really should be considered.

https://www.nj.com/education/2022/01/parents-in-one-of-njs-largest-districts-push-for-virtual-option-amid-covid-spike.html

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/589349-students-threaten-to-boycott-classes-in

https://www.reddit.com/r/nyc/comments/rxwnbl/i_am_a_new_york_city_public_high_school_student/

Follow up on that reddit post: https://slate.com/human-interest/2022/01/schools-open-closed-omicron-covid-staffing-shortages.html

https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/whitmer-signs-new-michigan-law-allowing-public-schools-to-use-non-teaching-staff-as-substitutes

[Mr. Illini]

Chicago posted its first week of declining case rates (ending 1/8). This is positive news.

The death rate (lagging figure) is on the rise, up to about 80% of last winter's peak. Case rates peaked at about double last winter's peak, so more case will inevitably mean more hospitalizations/deaths, even with a milder variant.

Still, it seems the US has not been able to stave off the essentially lack of any rise in hospitalizations/deaths that South Africa saw with their Omicron wave. Probably as a result of lower vaccination rates and an older/less healthy population.

[DINGO Joe]

Chicago posted its first week of declining case rates (ending 1/8). This is positive news.

The death rate (lagging figure) is on the rise, up to about 80% of last winter's peak. Case rates peaked at about double last winter's peak, so more case will inevitably mean more hospitalizations/deaths, even with a milder variant.

Still, it seems the US has not been able to stave off the essentially lack of any rise in hospitalizations/deaths that South Africa saw with their Omicron wave. Probably as a result of lower vaccination rates and an older/less healthy population.

I would assume that deaths are still being driven by Delta, though I don't know that they can truly screen out one for the other  on a death by death basis.

Before the vaccines, the age group with the largest number of deaths was 85 and over.  I think the last time that age group led in deaths was March or Feb.  In fact they dropped to 4th even behind the 50-64 age group and that has continued through Dec, so it seems the vaccine has still held up thus far for the most vulnerable group to a new variant.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Day 3 of Omicron and I'm already doing way better.  Fever is completely gone, nausea is completely gone, and I'm just back to the sore throat from day 1.  Praise be Joe Biden and Johnson+Johnson.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Day 3 of Omicron and I'm already doing way better.  Fever is completely gone, nausea is completely gone, and I'm just back to the sore throat from day 1.  Praise be Joe Biden and Johnson+Johnson.

This inept administration has totally ed up, but Trump's vaccine save you. NICE! More and more Americans start to realize that.

https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1481345207069257738

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1481269869567950848

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Day 3 of Omicron and I'm already doing way better.  Fever is completely gone, nausea is completely gone, and I'm just back to the sore throat from day 1.  Praise be Joe Biden and Johnson+Johnson.

Took that long? Mine (scratchy throat that I think was caused more by the medical mask) didn't even last a day without the protection. Weakest cold ever. Praise my beautiful blood cells or whatever.

I only knew I had it because every triple vaxxed co-worker panic texted the group chat one-by-one about how they were completely knocked out by it so I should get tested.

[Inmate Trump]

Day 3 of Omicron and I'm already doing way better.  Fever is completely gone, nausea is completely gone, and I'm just back to the sore throat from day 1.  Praise be Joe Biden and Johnson+Johnson.

Took that long? Mine (scratchy throat that I think was caused more by the medical mask) didn't even last a day without the protection. Weakest cold ever. Praise my beautiful blood cells or whatever.

I only knew I had it because every triple vaxxed co-worker panic texted the group chat one-by-one about how they were completely knocked out by it so I should get tested.

Meanwhile I had all the symptoms of Omicron, with a timeline of the onset of symptoms matching perfectly with what boosted people get, and I tested negative.

Ngl, I was a little disappointed it wasn’t Omicron so that I could just get it over with.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Day 3 of Omicron and I'm already doing way better.  Fever is completely gone, nausea is completely gone, and I'm just back to the sore throat from day 1.  Praise be Joe Biden and Johnson+Johnson.

Took that long? Mine (scratchy throat that I think was caused more by the medical mask) didn't even last a day without the protection. Weakest cold ever. Praise my beautiful blood cells or whatever.

I only knew I had it because every triple vaxxed co-worker panic texted the group chat one-by-one about how they were completely knocked out by it so I should get tested.

Meanwhile I had all the symptoms of Omicron, with a timeline of the onset of symptoms matching perfectly with what boosted people get, and I tested negative.

Ngl, I was a little disappointed it wasn’t Omicron so that I could just get it over with.

I still haven't gotten my test back from Friday.  Meanwhile my friend, who gave it to me on Thursday, got tested the next day with both Rapid and PCR tests.  The Rapid test came back positive, but the PCR came back negative.  This despite him getting a positive PCR two days earlier.  There are some serious issues with these tests.

[Green Line]

https://twitter.com/CDCDirector/status/1481315911843856387

Thank you Dr. Rochelle, very cool!

Of course, it makes even less sense than ever to force young, healthy people to get vaccinated.  That won't be the takeaway by the CDC though.  A lot of $$$ on the line for big pharma.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/CDCDirector/status/1481315911843856387

Thank you Dr. Rochelle, very cool!

Of course, it makes even less sense than ever to force young, healthy people to get vaccinated.  That won't be the takeaway by the CDC though.  A lot of $$$ on the line for big pharma.

 California has some of the highest vaccination rates among large states already, you do realize that this data of less severe infection is a reality of this.

 84% of all eligible Californians have at least 1 shot and 67% have a full dose.

Very next tweet

https://twitter.com/CDCDirector/status/1481315913773338626

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/CDCDirector/status/1481315911843856387

Thank you Dr. Rochelle, very cool!

Of course, it makes even less sense than ever to force young, healthy people to get vaccinated.  That won't be the takeaway by the CDC though.  A lot of $$$ on the line for big pharma.

 California has some of the highest vaccination rates among large states already, you do realize that this data of less severe infection is a reality of this.

 84% of all eligible Californians have at least 1 shot and 67% have a full dose.

California's relatively high vaccination rate should mean then, that places like Sonoma County should not be issuing voluntary stay-at-home orders, nor was it necessary for the state to have reimposed its mask mandate.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/CDCDirector/status/1481315911843856387

Thank you Dr. Rochelle, very cool!

Of course, it makes even less sense than ever to force young, healthy people to get vaccinated.  That won't be the takeaway by the CDC though.  A lot of $$$ on the line for big pharma.

 California has some of the highest vaccination rates among large states already, you do realize that this data of less severe infection is a reality of this.

 84% of all eligible Californians have at least 1 shot and 67% have a full dose.

California's relatively high vaccination rate should mean then, that places like Sonoma County should not be issuing voluntary stay-at-home orders, nor was it necessary for the state to have reimposed its mask mandate.

 read her very next tweet that I posted above.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/CDCDirector/status/1481315911843856387

Thank you Dr. Rochelle, very cool!

Of course, it makes even less sense than ever to force young, healthy people to get vaccinated.  That won't be the takeaway by the CDC though.  A lot of $$$ on the line for big pharma.

 California has some of the highest vaccination rates among large states already, you do realize that this data of less severe infection is a reality of this.

 84% of all eligible Californians have at least 1 shot and 67% have a full dose.

California's relatively high vaccination rate should mean then, that places like Sonoma County should not be issuing voluntary stay-at-home orders, nor was it necessary for the state to have reimposed its mask mandate.

 read her very next tweet that I posted above.

I'm aware that Walensky and the CDC are doubling down on their masking and social distancing recommendations, although evidence is already surfacing that the Omicron variant may be approaching its peak in the United States and that coronavirus is transitioning into becoming an endemic disease. And within the Biden Administration itself, there is increasing awareness that we must begin preparing Americans to live with the virus. That doesn't mean that restrictions should be normalized or made permanent.

[compucomp]

This is long, long overdue, and the fact that it will trigger the sh**t out of this forum is a pretty sweet bonus.

The White House says it is considering offering ‘high-quality’ masks to Americans.

The White House on Wednesday said that it was considering a program to offer “high-quality” masks to Americans as the highly transmissible Omicron variant of the coronavirus spreads through the nation.

“We’re in the process right now of strongly considering options,” Jeffrey D. Zients, the White House Covid-19 response coordinator, told reporters at a regularly scheduled news briefing on the pandemic. He offered no details about what type of masks might be distributed, how many or when.

The White House has not yet settled on what the program will look like, according to people familiar with the discussions. One option would be making the masks available at community sites, one person familiar with the planning said.

[soundchaser]

This is long, long overdue, and the fact that it will trigger the sh**t out of this forum is a pretty sweet bonus.

Spite is no way to live your life. Ever consider that some folks are more upset at your gleeful joy at the continuation of the pandemic than anything else?

[Hammy]

This is long, long overdue, and the fact that it will trigger the sh**t out of this forum is a pretty sweet bonus.

The White House says it is considering offering ‘high-quality’ masks to Americans.

The White House on Wednesday said that it was considering a program to offer “high-quality” masks to Americans as the highly transmissible Omicron variant of the coronavirus spreads through the nation.

“We’re in the process right now of strongly considering options,” Jeffrey D. Zients, the White House Covid-19 response coordinator, told reporters at a regularly scheduled news briefing on the pandemic. He offered no details about what type of masks might be distributed, how many or when.

The White House has not yet settled on what the program will look like, according to people familiar with the discussions. One option would be making the masks available at community sites, one person familiar with the planning said.

Literally nobody will be "triggered" by people being sent masks they can simply choose not to wear if they don't want, other than perhaps you being triggered over scenarios that exist only in your mind.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/CDCDirector/status/1481315911843856387
Thank you Dr. Rochelle, very cool!

Of course, it makes even less sense than ever to force young, healthy people to get vaccinated.  That won't be the takeaway by the CDC though.  A lot of $$$ on the line for big pharma.

91% less deadly can also be expressed as 11.1x less deadly. Awhile back, based on South Africa data, I crudely estimated Omicron is 16.8x less deadly IRC. Looks like while that was a bit overoptimistic, it was on the right order of magnitude.

[compucomp]

This is long, long overdue, and the fact that it will trigger the sh**t out of this forum is a pretty sweet bonus.

The White House says it is considering offering ‘high-quality’ masks to Americans.

The White House on Wednesday said that it was considering a program to offer “high-quality” masks to Americans as the highly transmissible Omicron variant of the coronavirus spreads through the nation.

“We’re in the process right now of strongly considering options,” Jeffrey D. Zients, the White House Covid-19 response coordinator, told reporters at a regularly scheduled news briefing on the pandemic. He offered no details about what type of masks might be distributed, how many or when.

The White House has not yet settled on what the program will look like, according to people familiar with the discussions. One option would be making the masks available at community sites, one person familiar with the planning said.

Literally nobody will be "triggered" by people being sent masks they can simply choose not to wear if they don't want, other than perhaps you being triggered over scenarios that exist only in your mind.

Oh, I'm sure you are wrong about this. How many times have we heard here that masks are a symbol of the pandemic and that even seeing people voluntarily wear them changes the atmosphere of any setting and affects mental health etc? Why do so many complain here about seeing people wear masks outdoors? Clearly the anti-mask posters here are by now offended by the very sight of masks. How better to trigger them than to literally send them some of the hated masks right to their mailboxes?

[Green Line]

https://twitter.com/CDCDirector/status/1481315911843856387

Thank you Dr. Rochelle, very cool!

Of course, it makes even less sense than ever to force young, healthy people to get vaccinated.  That won't be the takeaway by the CDC though.  A lot of $$$ on the line for big pharma.

 California has some of the highest vaccination rates among large states already, you do realize that this data of less severe infection is a reality of this.

 84% of all eligible Californians have at least 1 shot and 67% have a full dose.

Very next tweet

https://twitter.com/CDCDirector/status/1481315913773338626

They did control for vaccination though.  I read the actual report

"Reductions in disease severity associated with Omicron variant infections were evident among both vaccinated and unvaccinated patients, and among those with or without documented prior SARS-CoV-2 infection."

The rate of symptomatic hospitalization for an unvaccinated person dropped by about 50%.  Obviously, Dr. Rochelle isn't going to highlight that!

Pg 18 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.11.22269045v1.full.pdf

[Hammy]

This is long, long overdue, and the fact that it will trigger the sh**t out of this forum is a pretty sweet bonus.

The White House says it is considering offering ‘high-quality’ masks to Americans.

The White House on Wednesday said that it was considering a program to offer “high-quality” masks to Americans as the highly transmissible Omicron variant of the coronavirus spreads through the nation.

“We’re in the process right now of strongly considering options,” Jeffrey D. Zients, the White House Covid-19 response coordinator, told reporters at a regularly scheduled news briefing on the pandemic. He offered no details about what type of masks might be distributed, how many or when.

The White House has not yet settled on what the program will look like, according to people familiar with the discussions. One option would be making the masks available at community sites, one person familiar with the planning said.

Literally nobody will be "triggered" by people being sent masks they can simply choose not to wear if they don't want, other than perhaps you being triggered over scenarios that exist only in your mind.

Oh, I'm sure you are wrong about this. How many times have we heard here that masks are a symbol of the pandemic and that even seeing people voluntarily wear them changes the atmosphere of any setting and affects mental health etc? Why do so many complain here about seeing people wear masks outdoors? Clearly the anti-mask posters here are by now offended by the very sight of masks. How better to trigger them than to literally send them some of the hated masks right to their mailboxes?

Complaining about being required =/= complaining about having on hand. Again, you are upsetting yourself over notions you have decided to create entirely on your own.