COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Green Line]

I'm just leaving this good news here as well: BioNtech, Pfitzer's German partner in vaccine development, begun producing an adjusted vaccine for Omicron. First deliveries expected for March.

BioNtech also developed a method for fast detection of new variants:

https://twitter.com/Reuters_Health/status/1480955224395239434

That is great news for Pfizer’s bottom line and my holdings!

[GregTheGreat657]

At this point, we should shift our focus to COVID-positive individuals with little to no symptoms who go to the hospital. Hospitals should reject all COVID patients with mild or no symptoms (maybe send them off with some preventative meds in case more severe symptoms do develop) so the rest of us aren't forced to pay for their hysteria

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Today is the first day since Dec. 15 in which the 7-day case average in the U.S. dropped.

[GregTheGreat657]

Today is the first day since Dec. 15 in which the 7-day case average in the U.S. dropped.

Looks like we are over the hump, but I will knock on wood to make sure it stays that way

[Sol]

At this point, we should shift our focus to COVID-positive individuals with little to no symptoms who go to the hospital. Hospitals should reject all COVID patients with mild or no symptoms (maybe send them off with some preventative meds in case more severe symptoms do develop) so the rest of us aren't forced to pay for their hysteria

The problem with this is that Omicron is widespread enough that a decent percentage of hospital admissions who are coming in for completely unrelated issues will test positive.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Today is the first day since Dec. 15 in which the 7-day case average in the U.S. dropped.

But is that just the holiday backlog dropping off? Today wasn't a good day.

[Frodo]

It's okay to stop panicking now:

Omicron may be headed for a rapid drop in US and Britain
----------------

And on a separate note, thanks for changing the thread title Virginia! 

[Roll Roons]

It's okay to stop panicking now:

Omicron may be headed for a rapid drop in US and Britain

Yeah, just like what we saw in South Africa.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It remains to be seen whether another variant will come after Omicron that is capable of causing a major wave, but I think two things are pretty clearly true at this point:

1. SARS-COV-2 is never going away
2. The disease that we came to know as COVID-19 in the spring of 2020 doesn't really exist anymore.  Each new variant seems to be milder than the previous one, and this one has a whole different set of symptoms than previous ones.

The combination of these two puts us in a situation where we have no end game.  As long as the virus keeps circulating, people will keep testing positive.  But, with these new variants (and I'd think the next one will be even milder than Omicron), the disease that the virus causes is less and less.  The biggest question is what the first country will be to finally say "people with covid are encouraged to live their lives if they feel up to it" and not endorse any precautions that would not have been taken for a cold in 2019.

[Pericles]

2 is false, every new variant has been deadlier than the previous ones until Omicron miraculously became milder. It should also never be a goal for people with Covid to live their lives if they feel up to it. People should stay home until they're not infectious whenever they're sick, not just with Covid, and the government should support people so they can do this. We should not think it is OK to infect others.

[Calthrina950]

It remains to be seen whether another variant will come after Omicron that is capable of causing a major wave, but I think two things are pretty clearly true at this point:

1. SARS-COV-2 is never going away
2. The disease that we came to know as COVID-19 in the spring of 2020 doesn't really exist anymore.  Each new variant seems to be milder than the previous one, and this one has a whole different set of symptoms than previous ones.

The combination of these two puts us in a situation where we have no end game.  As long as the virus keeps circulating, people will keep testing positive.  But, with these new variants (and I'd think the next one will be even milder than Omicron), the disease that the virus causes is less and less.  The biggest question is what the first country will be to finally say "people with covid are encouraged to live their lives if they feel up to it" and not endorse any precautions that would not have been taken for a cold in 2019.

2 is false, every new variant has been deadlier than the previous ones until Omicron miraculously became milder. It should also never be a goal for people with Covid to live their lives if they feel up to it. People should stay home until they're not infectious whenever they're sick, not just with Covid, and the government should support people so they can do this. We should not think it is OK to infect others.

I'm going to aim this series of questions to both of you then. If we accept, on the one hand, that coronavirus is never going to go away, and on the other hand, that people should be cautious and more cognizant of their health going forward, then what is the "new normal" that should be devised? Should that "new normal", as some advocate, include rolling mask mandates? Vaccine mandates and vaccine passports? Quarantines? Some form of expanded virtual learning or work from home? Or should there be a reversion to the conditions of 2019, as much as possible, with perhaps more minor modifications? How much longer should we continue with life as it is now?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

2 is false, every new variant has been deadlier than the previous ones until Omicron miraculously became milder. It should also never be a goal for people with Covid to live their lives if they feel up to it. People should stay home until they're not infectious whenever they're sick, not just with Covid, and the government should support people so they can do this. We should not think it is OK to infect others.

That's not how we treated any cold or flu for all of modern history up until this.  I don't want to live in some sort of bio-security state.

It remains to be seen whether another variant will come after Omicron that is capable of causing a major wave, but I think two things are pretty clearly true at this point:

1. SARS-COV-2 is never going away
2. The disease that we came to know as COVID-19 in the spring of 2020 doesn't really exist anymore.  Each new variant seems to be milder than the previous one, and this one has a whole different set of symptoms than previous ones.

The combination of these two puts us in a situation where we have no end game.  As long as the virus keeps circulating, people will keep testing positive.  But, with these new variants (and I'd think the next one will be even milder than Omicron), the disease that the virus causes is less and less.  The biggest question is what the first country will be to finally say "people with covid are encouraged to live their lives if they feel up to it" and not endorse any precautions that would not have been taken for a cold in 2019.

2 is false, every new variant has been deadlier than the previous ones until Omicron miraculously became milder. It should also never be a goal for people with Covid to live their lives if they feel up to it. People should stay home until they're not infectious whenever they're sick, not just with Covid, and the government should support people so they can do this. We should not think it is OK to infect others.

I'm going to aim this series of questions to both of you then. If we accept, on the one hand, that coronavirus is never going to go away, and on the other hand, that people should be cautious and more cognizant of their health going forward, then what is the "new normal" that should be devised? Should that "new normal", as some advocate, include rolling mask mandates? Vaccine mandates and vaccine passports? Quarantines? Some form of expanded virtual learning or work from home? Or should there be a reversion to the conditions of 2019, as much as possible, with perhaps more minor modifications? How much longer should we continue with life as it is now?

I support a full return to 2019 immediately, with no testing or quarantines.

[Donerail]

2 is false, every new variant has been deadlier than the previous ones until Omicron miraculously became milder. It should also never be a goal for people with Covid to live their lives if they feel up to it. People should stay home until they're not infectious whenever they're sick, not just with Covid, and the government should support people so they can do this. We should not think it is OK to infect others.

That's not how we treated any cold or flu for all of modern history up until this.  I don't want to live in some sort of bio-security state.

I don't think you need to read "bio-security state" into the suggestion that people should get guaranteed paid sick leave, just like they do in fifteen states and a lot of other countries. Frankly kind of insane that Democrats have not hammered home that as their pandemic message — polls well, not burdensome to individuals, and would meaningfully reduce the spread of the disease — and instead have focused on mask mandates that do none of those things.

[Matty]

It will never, ever cease to amaze me that with all of our modern technology, this pandemic is going to end up lasting longer than the 1918 pandemic.

[Calthrina950]

It will never, ever cease to amaze me that with all of our modern technology, this pandemic is going to end up lasting longer than the 1918 pandemic.

Why has that happened?

[Hammy]

I support a full return to 2019 immediately, with no testing or quarantines.

This is utter insanity, given school districts have tended to close schools for a few days even for flu outbreaks among children. You're proposing sending children to school when they become infected with a virus that is objectively worse than one that has always been basic common sense to keep them home for.

It will never, ever cease to amaze me that with all of our modern technology, this pandemic is going to end up lasting longer than the 1918 pandemic.

Why has that happened?

A lot more international travel than in 1918--not just in volume, but general ease of travel, as well as being much quicker thanks to air travel--is a big reason for that. So in a twist of irony, that same modern travel has allowed it to ripple around the world a lot more quickly.

[Calthrina950]

It will never, ever cease to amaze me that with all of our modern technology, this pandemic is going to end up lasting longer than the 1918 pandemic.

Why has that happened?

A lot more international travel than in 1918--not just in volume, but general ease of travel, as well as being much quicker thanks to air travel--is a big reason for that. So in a twist of irony, that same modern travel has allowed it to ripple around the world a lot more quickly.

How long do you think the pandemic is going to last for? We're nearly two years into it now. I sure hope that we still won't be in "pandemic mode" by 2024.

[Hammy]

It will never, ever cease to amaze me that with all of our modern technology, this pandemic is going to end up lasting longer than the 1918 pandemic.

Why has that happened?

A lot more international travel than in 1918--not just in volume, but general ease of travel, as well as being much quicker thanks to air travel--is a big reason for that. So in a twist of irony, that same modern travel has allowed it to ripple around the world a lot more quickly.

How long do you think the pandemic is going to last for? We're nearly two years into it now. I sure hope that we still won't be in "pandemic mode" by 2024.

I can't say for sure, I would say there will probably be waves for another year or two at most if I had to make a guess--each one increasingly less severe. The mortality rate of omicron vs delta is somewhere between 0.5% and 10% (depending on which study you look at) which is quite a significant evolution towards an end.

There was one from 1890-94 that is widely suspected to be a coronavirus (in fact one of the ancestors of today's common cold) and it had become endemic and mild by the fourth year. That said I don't think there will necessarily be a specific point in which it ends (it's not like the signing of a treaty to end a war obviously) so, save for social media sensationalism, it'll more likely simply slip from most of the public consciousness.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I actually suspect we had a coronavirus pandemic in the late 1980s. I remember a time there where there was definitely something going around for probably several years.

[roxas11]

It will never, ever cease to amaze me that with all of our modern technology, this pandemic is going to end up lasting longer than the 1918 pandemic.

That so called modern technology is what is causing us so may problems in the first place because The negative misinformation about vaccines on Facebook spread to the American public much faster than Delta or Omicron ever did

Luckily for the people who lived thru the 1918 pandemic Facebook and social media did not exist back then otherwise that pandemic would have also lasted a lot longer.

I just think that it not longer possible for America or the world to do anything when it comes to stopping the spread of any future virus unless people are willing to finally do something about the massive disinformation campaign that is happening on these social media websites

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Going forward, I would support a mask culture similar to what is already the culture in many Asian countries, which is that you should wear a mask in public if you are feeling sick.  No one should object to anyone who wants to wear a mask more often, but also no one should feel pressured to wear a mask if they are healthy.

People should expect to get a covid shot alongside their flu shot every year for the forseeable future.

And I think the increased attention to hand washing is a good thing that should stick around.

Beyond that, I don’t think the average person should need to do anything more to avoid covid.

[Hammy]

Going forward, I would support a mask culture similar to what is already the culture in many Asian countries, which is that you should wear a mask in public if you are feeling sick.  No one should object to anyone who wants to wear a mask more often, but also no one should feel pressured to wear a mask if they are healthy.

People should expect to get a covid shot alongside their flu shot every year for the forseeable future.

And I think the increased attention to hand washing is a good thing that should stick around.

Beyond that, I don’t think the average person should need to do anything more to avoid covid.

This is probably the most rational post on this entire thread.

[lfromnj]

Texas mother allegedly put son in trunk of car to avoid being exposed to Covid-19.

A Texas mother has been charged with endangering a child after she allegedly placed her 13-year-old son, who had Covid-19, into her car's trunk to avoid being exposed to the virus, according to a warrant from the Harris County District Attorney's Office.

Sarah Beam, 41, was charged after authorities arrived at a Houston-area Covid testing site on January 3 following a report that a health services official had found the child in trunk of Beam's car. According to the warrant, the director of health services stated she was gathering information from cars in a line for Covid testing when "she found a female driver, later identified as Sarah Beam, having her child in the trunk of her car."

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/10/us/texas-mother-son-trunk-covid-19/?iid=ob_lockedrail_topeditorial

What the hell is this?
Is she nuts?

Anyone, and I mean anyone who is worth their salt and possesses even a modicum of psychoanalytic knowledge knows that you’re inevitably going to get cases like that if you ceaselessly (quite literally every single day) subject an entire populace to fear and hysteria in a manner that’s completely, utterly disproportionate to the matter at hand. You don’t need a PhD in Psychology or have read Gustave Le Bon or George Orwell to predict how certain individuals will behave in an environment like that! Now, of course we’re supposed to react to this story the same way Gotfan, computocomp, etc. want us to react to other cases of this kind, mask mandates, school closures, businesses going bankrupt, families being torn apart, mental health disorders in general proliferating during this pandemic, etc.: classify it as "collateral damage" amidst a broader good cause and a slight incovenience/outlier in a "necessary new normal" borne out by and in fact necessitated by science.

When the same people indifferent to and supportive of this gradual erasure of empathy, critical thinking, and levelheadedness call those who dare entertain a return to a normalcy which at least allowed us to breathe normally "sociopaths," it’s not that hard to figure out where their fondness for the designation "sociopath" comes from. I sincerely don’t mean this in any polemic way when I say that many of these individuals are very, very sick — this, while of course very tragic, frankly wouldn’t be any of our business if it were confined to three or four individuals on an obscure online forum and not of a mindset that likewise pervades some of the highest positions of government. As evidenced by this thread, the former will have no qualms about displaying their abject views and (for once in their lives) feel worthy/listened to/in control as long as they feel protected by the latter, which is why the only way to deal with both is to strip enough of the latter of their power (which, one can only hope, will happen in this year's elections). I mean, I’m just a Manic Montanan who’s fine with killing all his grandmas, but trust me, I very much prefer that to any of their issues.

In a more depressing note, not only is this women a teacher but she has also received a show of support from her community.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/texas-mom-son-covid-positive-trunk-community-support

How much does everyone want to bet she was writing her will in August 2020 and posting about it in public because she had to go back to school

(Obviously nothing is wrong with writing a will, but posting about it publicly for political points was cringe)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Going forward, I would support a mask culture similar to what is already the culture in many Asian countries, which is that you should wear a mask in public if you are feeling sick.  No one should object to anyone who wants to wear a mask more often, but also no one should feel pressured to wear a mask if they are healthy.

People should stay home, if they feel sick. How difficult is this? Disgusting to see sick people in public spaces.

By the way, there has been an improvement on that thanks to Corona.

People should expect to get a covid shot alongside their flu shot every year for the forseeable future.

Not necessary. I don't know why people think 2 is a magic number. There is some (a lot of?)vaccines, that need more than 2 doses. Polio needs 4 for instance.

It depends if we want to stop spreading or to stop hospitalizations. As I said earlier* 2 doses are still super efficient for the later for healthy "young" (<50 years old) people.

And I think the increased attention to hand washing is a good thing that should stick around.

Yeah, this together with that people has actually learned to stay home when feeling sick are one of few good things Covid brought.  mRNA vaccines breakthrough is the another important thing. New era of  mRNA vaccines might be a game-changer.

Beyond that, I don’t think the average person should need to do anything more to avoid covid.

Agreed.




* data from UK May-Dec 2021


As you see among 2-doses vaccinated people under 50 years, critical care admission rate is ~1 (one) per million! But even this 1 per million is very likely is person with 1 or more comorbidities.

Booster is absolutely a must for elder or vulnerable population, but the reasoning behind decision to boost younger healthy people was to stop the spread. But it seems, it's not very effective to stop Omicron, for instance. It will likely change with Omicron-specific booster, but is it really way to go?

[pbrower2a]

It will never, ever cease to amaze me that with all of our modern technology, this pandemic is going to end up lasting longer than the 1918 pandemic.

Why has that happened?

A lot more international travel than in 1918--not just in volume, but general ease of travel, as well as being much quicker thanks to air travel--is a big reason for that. So in a twist of irony, that same modern travel has allowed it to ripple around the world a lot more quickly.

How long do you think the pandemic is going to last for? We're nearly two years into it now. I sure hope that we still won't be in "pandemic mode" by 2024.

For me to be satisfied that COVID-19 is no longer a threat, the Omicron variant must dwindle without becoming another threat as another variant. Because of the heritage of SARS-2, the virus behind COVID-19, we must assume the worst.

Samples of the 1918 flu virus behind the last analogous pandemic attacking the respiratory tract have been injected in mice -- who of course died of the virus. I'm ready to claim that COVID-19 is no longer threat the first time that a related virus becomes a triviality.  Even without causing death, SARS-2 can cause diabetes, organ damage, cognitive loss (in essence, stupidity), stillbirths, and sexual dysfunction. None of these is desirable, to put it tamely.

We could get a respite, but that has yet to appear. Enough people have failed to get inoculated that the horrible disease can kill and cripple.