COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/DrJBhattacharya/status/1442656553845334016

https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1444031277577891844

Ron LifeSantis

Where do these demented nutjobs get this stuff? There are literally no lockdowns in California and in fact through most of the state, authorities are refusing to enforce what few measures exist.

Then why was there a spike? Spikes ordinarily come down with no prompting.

Did you quote the wrong post? I was pointing out that the 'lockdown state doing worse than freedom state' garbage being vomited onto this forum makes no sense as there are not any lockdowns in the first place.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/DrJBhattacharya/status/1442656553845334016

https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1444031277577891844

Ron LifeSantis

Where do these demented nutjobs get this stuff? There are literally no lockdowns in California and in fact through most of the state, authorities are refusing to enforce what few measures exist.

Then why was there a spike? Spikes ordinarily come down with no prompting.

If there’s no cause to problems, there’s no solution to problems. If there’s no solutions, there’s no problems.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/DrJBhattacharya/status/1442656553845334016

https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1444031277577891844

Ron LifeSantis

Where do these demented nutjobs get this stuff? There are literally no lockdowns in California and in fact through most of the state, authorities are refusing to enforce what few measures exist.

Then why was there a spike? Spikes ordinarily come down with no prompting.

Did you quote the wrong post? I was pointing out that the 'lockdown state doing worse than freedom state' garbage being vomited onto this forum makes no sense as there are not any lockdowns in the first place.

It could be. The death came as the result of a spike in COVID-19 infections and resulting deaths. It's the spike that did the great harm.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/DrJBhattacharya/status/1442656553845334016
https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1444031277577891844
Ron LifeSantis

Where do these demented nutjobs get this stuff? There are literally no lockdowns in California and in fact through most of the state, authorities are refusing to enforce what few measures exist.

Florida held schools open since last fall, no? Only this makes a huge difference. Democrats of CA kept poor brown kids down for that reason exactly? Because Orange Man BAAAD?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/DrJBhattacharya/status/1442656553845334016

This is abusing Simpson's paradox, total deaths per 100k is 257 in FL and 176 in CA. When the population is more elderly like FL, the governor really should be taking more measures to protect them rather than doing all he can to protect COVID.

Abusing? Isn't it a school example of Simpson's paradox? Florida is clearly better (if these stats are right) than CA, but Simpson's paradox (more old population in FL and Covid is highly age related) hides this fact.

I agree, though, with you, that the governor should be taking more measures given more elderly population. Because the vaccines are like 1000 times more important than anything else, the governor should vaccinates as many as possible. Gov DeSantis has been doing OK job with that. Among 65+ 90% are fully vaccinated (vs 88% in CA). Kudos to Vermount, Rhode Islands and Maine that all vaccinated 99+% among 65+.

I'd like also to repeat for 100th time, that DeSantis kept the schools open giving a lot of poor brown kids a chance for a bright future, unlike racist Dems that mostly denied them that...

https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker

[compucomp]

https://twitter.com/DrJBhattacharya/status/1442656553845334016

This is abusing Simpson's paradox, total deaths per 100k is 257 in FL and 176 in CA. When the population is more elderly like FL, the governor really should be taking more measures to protect them rather than doing all he can to protect COVID.

snipped

It's abusing because it's an attempt to whitewash Florida's objectively worse performance. Deaths per capita and the closely related hospitalizations per capita are clearly the most important metric. If COVID deaths were literal acts of God which no human intervention could affect, then the stratification argument may have merit, but this is totally untrue and clearly different measures are needed for populations with different vulnerability. As an extreme example nursing homes were actually locked down for awhile with visitors barred, quarantine for infected, and staff subject to testing requirements.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/DrJBhattacharya/status/1442656553845334016

This is abusing Simpson's paradox, total deaths per 100k is 257 in FL and 176 in CA. When the population is more elderly like FL, the governor really should be taking more measures to protect them rather than doing all he can to protect COVID.

snipped

It's abusing because it's an attempt to whitewash Florida's objectively worse performance. Deaths per capita and the closely related hospitalizations per capita are clearly the most important metric. If COVID deaths were literal acts of God which no human intervention could affect, then the stratification argument may have merit, but this is totally untrue and clearly different measures are needed for populations with different vulnerability. As an extreme example nursing homes were actually locked down for awhile with visitors barred, quarantine for infected, and staff subject to testing requirements.

No, it shows Florida's objectively better performance. I doubt, that anyone really doubts that by age is more fair statistics?



Clearly better (if true).

I already wrote in this thread that DeSantis/FL did horrible job on vaccinating nursing stuff (I don't know, if that has changed.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Is there info about nursing homes related deaths?

Well...

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article253524984.html
Florida nursing homes have low staff vaccination rates. Resident cases and deaths are rising.

The most dramatic COVID-19 case increases this summer have occurred in states with low rates of vaccinated workers, such as Florida, where an estimated 47.5% of nursing home staff were fully vaccinated as of Aug. 15 — lower than the national average of vaccinated staff per facility (61.1%) and the lowest of any state, according to the most recent data reported by the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services or CMS.

About 70,000 people live in a nursing home in Florida, where the rate of fully vaccinated residents per facility — 73.1% — is lower than every other state except Nevada, which reported a resident vaccination rate of 71.7% per nursing home as of Aug. 15. The national average of vaccinated residents per nursing home is 83.1%.

As Florida nursing homes lag behind their peers in resident and staff vaccination rates, the number and rate of new COVID cases for residents and staff of the state’s more than 700 nursing homes spiked in July and early August

With that said, the data clearly shows that CA/Newsom are still much worse. Had DeSantis used same stupid tactics - tough on useless things, soft on useful - even more people would die in Florida. This data shows that, no?

[compucomp]

snipped

No, the per capita deaths of FL is 1.5x that of CA and likely hospitalizations as well. This is objectively worse. It's no secret FL's population skews elderly and so DeSantis should have used additional mitigation measure above the baseline; instead he went entirely the other way and there are more dead in FL and hospitals more overloaded, which is the end result that matters. You're abusing Simpson's paradox to make a reasonable sounding but ultimately fallacious argument.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Colorado has long struck me as a state with a particularly good COVID response.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

snipped

No, the per capita deaths of FL is 1.5x that of CA and likely hospitalizations as well. This is objectively worse. It's no secret FL's population skews elderly and so DeSantis should have used additional mitigation measure above the baseline; instead he went entirely the other way and there are more dead in FL and hospitals more overloaded, which is the end result that matters. You're abusing Simpson's paradox to make a reasonable sounding but ultimately fallacious argument.

No, you are the one who's abusing. Literally.

Yeah. He should. But not those useless from CA. This data shows they're worse then FL's to keep elder (or what that matter any age group) people alive.

[roxas11]

As far as Im concerned Ron DeSantis response to Delta was awful and in my opinion his actions got a lot of people in his state killed.

Now in the case of California their response was defiantly not perfect and nobody should pretend that it was but that is nothing compared to Ron Desantis disastrous handling of Delta in Florida.

During the Delta surge Florida became the first state in the U.S. to experiencie more COVID-19 deaths than during its previous winter peak.

All the political spin in the world is not going to make that damning fact about Florida look any better nor will make it Ron DeSantis look any less incompetent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As far as Im concerned Ron DeSantis responses to Delta was awful and his actions got a lot of people in his state killed.

now in the case of California their response was defiantly not perfect and nobody should pretend that it was but that is nothing compared to Ron Desantis disastrous handling of Delta in Florida.

During the Delta surge Florida became the first state in the U.S. to experiencie more COVID-19 deaths than during its previous winter peak.

All the political spin in the world is not going to make that damning fact look any better nor will make it Ron DeSantis look any less incompetent

Ron DeSantis gotta Bump from Surfside that's why he is winning Reelection but FL is a close state and it will get closer as Election nears, it's gonna be a 3 pt margin but is he the FAV YES

WC and Latino praised both Rubio and DeSantis for their hard work during such Trajedy


Users forget that Surfside Condo Collapse was a big deal like 911 to especially Seniors in FL

[Calthrina950]

Colorado has long struck me as a state with a particularly good COVID response.

Polis has had one of the more reasonable and sensible responses of any Democratic Governor. He's avoided the more onerous restrictions that some of them imposed, while also avoiding the mistakes made by Republican Governors.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Plains and northern Rockies did best.

It's also striking how rural areas just weren't very masky compared to urban areas.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Colorado has long struck me as a state with a particularly good COVID response.

Polis has had one of the more reasonable and sensible responses of any Democratic Governor. He's avoided the more onerous restrictions that some of them imposed, while also avoiding the mistakes made by Republican Governors.

If we had more people like Jared Polis, then we'd be out of Covid by now.

[It’s so Joever]

Colorado has long struck me as a state with a particularly good COVID response.

Polis has had one of the more reasonable and sensible responses of any Democratic Governor. He's avoided the more onerous restrictions that some of them imposed, while also avoiding the mistakes made by Republican Governors.

If we had more people like Jared Polis, then we'd be out of Covid by now.

Delusional.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Colorado has long struck me as a state with a particularly good COVID response.

Polis has had one of the more reasonable and sensible responses of any Democratic Governor. He's avoided the more onerous restrictions that some of them imposed, while also avoiding the mistakes made by Republican Governors.

Ralph Northam as well. It's largely what allowed him to survive his scandal and rebound in popularity. They're probably the best Dems on the issue.

[jamestroll]

Colorado has long struck me as a state with a particularly good COVID response.

Polis has had one of the more reasonable and sensible responses of any Democratic Governor. He's avoided the more onerous restrictions that some of them imposed, while also avoiding the mistakes made by Republican Governors.

Colorado and Virginia were the double digit Biden states with Democratic governors that were not irrational during covid.

[pbrower2a]

The Governor of Michigan reacted properly and promptly to COVID-19, but some extremists plotted to kidnap her and do who-know-what. Michigan would prove a bare Biden win. 

[DINGO Joe]

The Plains and northern Rockies did best.

It's also striking how rural areas just weren't very masky compared to urban areas.

Your total aversion to math and reality is astounding for a non-troll.

[Dan the Roman]

The Florida stuff is silly on both sides.

Was Desantis' general approach closer to the ideal initially, and more or less what pretty much everyone eventually settled close to?

Yes

Is Desantis' political operation and instincts those of a control freak which means they have a tendency to lash out violently at the media and try and control information(ie. limit data releases, prohibit the release to counties themselves of death and hospital statistics out of fear they were being used by the media. Being so dependent on political loyalty that in the current climate being too loudly pro-vaccine or mask was seen as loyalty to Fauci/Biden?)

Yes

Did these things rise to level of altering data as opposed to erratically trying to control it?

Nope. We get the death numbers and if anything the gamesmanship with formats may have made them look worse with the rise sharper than it otherwise would have been. Maybe an argument can be made that when the county data was released again for deaths it shows that the second wave hit low vax counties REALLY hard, just like everywhere else but unclear what the agenda here was other than control. There is no evidence there is anything wrong with the numbers we are getting. We are just getting them far later and in a much more confusing format at the cost of far more work on the part of the State.

Did more people die?

This is a trickier one. As is noted here, there are likely multiple facets

Schools Staying Open
Mask bans for kids

Both probably had no impact on deaths or very little

On the other hand some of the grandstanding regarding banning private employers from mandating masks or vaccines especially nursing homes, retirement communities etc almost certainly did.


Basically there is a lot to criticize about Desantis, much of which stems from his decision to pivot from adopting a light touch approach for ideological and scientific reasons in 2021, to then using his association with that approach and its success to "troll the libs" with it in 2021.

I suspect the above will also be the view of many middle of the road Florida voters in 2022. Do they wish DeSantis would tone it down a bit and pay less attention to online Republican twitter/out of state R primary voters? Yes. Do they find his staff and some of his methods abrasive? Yes. But all in all, would they trade that for the alternative, even say a Jeb Bush or Mike Dewine, much less a Charlie Crist. Probably not.

DeSantis almost certainly has annoyed people with this, and his militant online fans are not an asset. But those thinking he has turned into #deathsantis are as delusional as those who put together that idiotic ad.

[roxas11]

The Florida stuff is silly on both sides.

Was Desantis' general approach closer to the ideal initially, and more or less what pretty much everyone eventually settled close to?

Yes

Is Desantis' political operation and instincts those of a control freak which means they have a tendency to lash out violently at the media and try and control information(ie. limit data releases, prohibit the release to counties themselves of death and hospital statistics out of fear they were being used by the media. Being so dependent on political loyalty that in the current climate being too loudly pro-vaccine or mask was seen as loyalty to Fauci/Biden?)

Yes

Did these things rise to level of altering data as opposed to erratically trying to control it?

Nope. We get the death numbers and if anything the gamesmanship with formats may have made them look worse with the rise sharper than it otherwise would have been. Maybe an argument can be made that when the county data was released again for deaths it shows that the second wave hit low vax counties REALLY hard, just like everywhere else but unclear what the agenda here was other than control. There is no evidence there is anything wrong with the numbers we are getting. We are just getting them far later and in a much more confusing format at the cost of far more work on the part of the State.

Did more people die?

This is a trickier one. As is noted here, there are likely multiple facets

Schools Staying Open
Mask bans for kids

Both probably had no impact on deaths or very little

On the other hand some of the grandstanding regarding banning private employers from mandating masks or vaccines especially nursing homes, retirement communities etc almost certainly did.


Basically there is a lot to criticize about Desantis, much of which stems from his decision to pivot from adopting a light touch approach for ideological and scientific reasons in 2021, to then using his association with that approach and its success to "troll the libs" with it in 2021.

I suspect the above will also be the view of many middle of the road Florida voters in 2022. Do they wish DeSantis would tone it down a bit and pay less attention to online Republican twitter/out of state R primary voters? Yes. Do they find his staff and some of his methods abrasive? Yes. But all in all, would they trade that for the alternative, even say a Jeb Bush or Mike Dewine, much less a Charlie Crist. Probably not.

DeSantis almost certainly has annoyed people with this, and his militant online fans are not an asset. But those thinking he has turned into #deathsantis are as delusional as those who put together that idiotic ad.

This 1 line sums up just how horrible and outright evil Ron desantis approach to Delta was...

you called people delusional for saying that Ron turned into #deathsantis yet in your own post even you just acknowledged that his reckless actions did get people killed

[pbrower2a]

The Florida stuff is silly on both sides.

Was Desantis' general approach closer to the ideal initially, and more or less what pretty much everyone eventually settled close to?

Yes

No, he simply got away with it early as Governors of some other states could not. .

[

b]Is Desantis' political operation and instincts those of a control freak which means they have a tendency to lash out violently at the media and try and control information(ie. limit data releases, prohibit the release to counties themselves of death and hospital statistics out of fear they were being used by the media. Being so dependent on political loyalty that in the current climate being too loudly pro-vaccine or mask was seen as loyalty to Fauci/Biden?)
[/b]
Yes

Control freaks are disasters as leaders. There were Republican Governors who went along with Fauci and President Biden. They did right. Human life rightly comes before anything that might be lucrative (like tourism) that might lead to mass death. 

Did these things rise to level of altering data as opposed to erratically trying to control it?

Nope. We get the death numbers and if anything the gamesmanship with formats may have made them look worse with the rise sharper than it otherwise would have been. Maybe an argument can be made that when the county data was released again for deaths it shows that the second wave hit low vax counties REALLY hard, just like everywhere else but unclear what the agenda here was other than control. There is no evidence there is anything wrong with the numbers we are getting. We are just getting them far later and in a much more confusing format at the cost of far more work on the part of the State.

Honest results make public policy easier to form and more reliable.

Did more people die?

This is a trickier one. As is noted here, there are likely multiple facets

Schools Staying Open
Mask bans for kids

Both probably had no impact on deaths or very little

On the other hand some of the grandstanding regarding banning private employers from mandating masks or vaccines especially nursing homes, retirement communities etc almost certainly did.


Basically there is a lot to criticize about Desantis, much of which stems from his decision to pivot from adopting a light touch approach for ideological and scientific reasons in 2021, to then using his association with that approach and its success to "troll the libs" with it in 2021.

More than otherwise would have. If you take guard rails down on an active highway to scrap them for money then you can expect people to die should people veer off the road.
 

I suspect the above will also be the view of many middle of the road Florida voters in 2022. Do they wish DeSantis would tone it down a bit and pay less attention to online Republican twitter/out of state R primary voters? Yes. Do they find his staff and some of his methods abrasive? Yes. But all in all, would they trade that for the alternative, even say a Jeb Bush or Mike Dewine, much less a Charlie Crist. Probably not.

You can expect plenty of cat-calls from Democrats on COVID-19 in Florida in 2022. That's on DeSantis. For House Republicans, it would be something very different.

DeSantis almost certainly has annoyed people with this, and his militant online fans are not an asset. But those thinking he has turned into #deathsantis are as delusional as those who put together that idiotic ad.

"Idiotic" ads win at times.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 9/16-9/22/2021 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Well everyone, it finally happened. After over a year and a half of consistently reporting on COVID-19 descriptive statistics, enough work popped up that it completely eluded me to report on last week's numbers (I can't seem to find the stats for Wednesday 9/29 on the Worldometers website).

If someone knows of a way to access these numbers, I'd be happy to continue updating them. Otherwise, I feel fine letting this hiccup in continuity function as an indicator that, maybe, it is time to retire from this task.

It's been a long and slow haul, but I believe that the horizon is around the corner, if not right in front of us at this point. We might have a sense of normalcy by the end of this year or the start of the next.

[gerritcole]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 9/16-9/22/2021 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Well everyone, it finally happened. After over a year and a half of consistently reporting on COVID-19 descriptive statistics, enough work popped up that it completely eluded me to report on last week's numbers (I can't seem to find the stats for Wednesday 9/29 on the Worldometers website).

If someone knows of a way to access these numbers, I'd be happy to continue updating them. Otherwise, I feel fine letting this hiccup in continuity function as an indicator that, maybe, it is time to retire from this task.

It's been a long and slow haul, but I believe that the horizon is around the corner, if not right in front of us at this point. We might have a sense of normalcy by the end of this year or the start of the next.

Arch pls